Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
247 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather early this
week before weakening later in the week as an upper trough moves
into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region. Temperatures will
remain above normal and hot with heat indices over 100 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite indicating developing cumulus across the central
Midlands and CSRA. Air mass moderately to strongly unstable
across the area due to steep low to mid level lapse rates/strong
insolation. Precipitable water near 2 inches so heavy rain
threat. DCAPE appears above 1000 J/kg across the southeast
Midlands but less convective coverage expected there unless sea
breeze front pushes further inland. Shear weak but isolated
pulse possible due to dry mid level air. Latest high resolution
models still focus convection mainly across the west Midlands
and Upstate but based on satellite and radar will raise pops
across the central CWA.  Temperatures today may be slightly
cooler than yesterday but not by much as highs are expected to
be in the mid to upper 90s again. Heat index values will also be
in the 102-107 degree range.

Convection should diminish by 03z with debris clouds into the
overnight...then dissipating. Overnight lows will be warm in
the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough over the Great Lakes region will shift eastward
Wednesday into Thursday while passing north of the forecast
area. A tropical wave will track west- northwestward over the
Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. Surface high
pressure will continue ridging into the forecast area from the
western Atlantic. Isolated to scattered diurnal showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop again on Wednesday with
scattered coverage expected on Thursday. Precipitable water on
Wednesday will be around 1.6 to 1.9 inches across the area and
will approach 2.0 inches in the northern portion of the area by
Thursday afternoon. It will be hot again Wednesday and Thursday
with with index values around 100 to 105 degrees. Planning to
issue another heat advisory for northern Lancaster County for
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper trough will be along the coast on Friday and will strengthen
with upper ridging to the west. There will be deep moisture in
place on Friday with pwat values around 2.0 inches west to 2.2
inches east. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the
weekend with abundant moisture in place. Upper ridge will build
east by early next week, with less moisture over the area and
more of a typical summertime pattern returning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period
although brief restrictions possible due to scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly til 00z.

High pressure ridge remains in place and expect similar
conditions again today with isolated to scattered convection
developing during the afternoon hours. The focus for
thunderstorms may be in a line from CAE/CUB to AGS/DNL based on
latest radar and satellite trends. Lower threat at OGB. The
storms may develop west of the terminals later this afternoon.
Brief visibility restrictions possible and ceilings mainly VFR.
Mid level ceilings into the overnight due to debris clouds. Fog
not expected tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions are possible during
the afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms during the
extended.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ115.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
408 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-116-220815-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Southern Lancaster-
408 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ115-220815-
Northern Lancaster-
408 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
217 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

SCZ016-022-116-211900-
Chesterfield SC-Southern Lancaster SC-Kershaw SC-
217 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Chesterfield...
Southern Lancaster and Kershaw Counties Until 300 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Wateree Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 216 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Carolina Sandhills Wildlife Refuge, or 17
miles west of Cheraw. This storm was nearly stationary. Additional
strong thunderstorms may develop soon in portions of Lancaster and
Kershaw counties.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Localized minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Camden, Cheraw, Lake Wateree Dam, Pageland, Kershaw, Chesterfield,
Heath Springs, Lugoff, Westville, Cheraw State Park, Northeastern
Technical College, Cassatt, Liberty Hill, Cheraw Municipal Airport,
Elgin, Carolina Sandhills Wildlife Refuge, Mt Pisgah, Goodale State
Park, Mcbee and Jefferson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Wateree should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 85
and 105.

LAT...LON 3460 7981 3449 7988 3449 8005 3434 8033
      3434 8036 3430 8036 3428 8044 3425 8042
      3418 8046 3410 8058 3411 8062 3407 8072
      3418 8087 3438 8077 3448 8089 3482 8039
      3481 7994 3468 7986 3465 7980 3461 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 250DEG 3KT 3461 8018

CJR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
245 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

SCZ022-027-028-037-211945-
Lexington SC-Calhoun SC-Richland SC-Kershaw SC-
245 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Lexington...
northwestern Calhoun...Richland and southwestern Kershaw Counties
Until 345 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Murray Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 245 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Forest Acres. This storm was nearly
stationary.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Columbia, Lexington, West Columbia, Cayce, Irmo, Forest Acres,
Batesburg-Leesville, Springdale, St. Andrews, Dentsville, Oak Grove,
McEntire Air Base, Highway 6 at Lake Murray Dam, Red Bank, South
Congaree, Pine Ridge, Gaston, Arcadia Lakes, Lugoff and Columbia
International University.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Murray should move to shore and seek shelter. Strong,
erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 126 between mile markers 0 and 3.
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 37 and 94.
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 93 and 131.
 Interstate 77 between mile markers 0 and 29.

LAT...LON 3409 8064 3404 8060 3400 8065 3395 8062
      3377 8087 3369 8103 3366 8118 3373 8141
      3388 8157 3407 8148 3407 8139 3411 8141
      3421 8123 3418 8118 3422 8118 3427 8083
      3436 8078 3442 8084 3442 8083 3412 8055
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 059DEG 1KT 3404 8098

CJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     HAIL             1 S ARCADIA LAKES       34.04N 80.96W
07/21/2020  E0.25 INCH       RICHLAND           SC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 MPH
            WINDS.

&&

AWP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

GAZ064-065-SCZ018-025>027-030-212000-
Richmond GA-Columbia GA-Lexington SC-Aiken SC-McCormick SC-Saluda SC-
Edgefield SC-
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northeastern
Richmond...east central Columbia...southwestern Lexington...Aiken...
southeastern McCormick...southeastern Saluda and Edgefield Counties
Until 400 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 304 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 7 miles south of Batesburg-Leesville. This storm
was nearly stationary. Other strong storms will develop in the areas
listed.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Aiken, North Augusta, Lexington, Grovetown, Evans,
Batesburg-Leesville, Augusta, Clearwater, Martinez, Aiken Mall, Red
Bank, Belvedere, Edgefield, Johnston, Ridge Spring, Glendale,
Edgefield County Airport, Summerville, Augusta Mall and Daniel Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 185 and 201.
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 0 and 55.
 Interstate 520 in Georgia between mile markers 1 and 8, and between
mile markers 10 and 15.
 Interstate 520 in South Carolina between mile markers 16 and 23.

LAT...LON 3406 8125 3379 8115 3353 8141 3339 8206
      3348 8230 3362 8217 3377 8221 3400 8161
      3406 8145
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 056DEG 2KT 3380 8150

CJR

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