Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
247 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will be over the eastern US through much
of the week. At the surface, a weak boundary will be stalled
over the area and combine with abundant low level moisture to
produce diurnally driven convection. Although, several upper
level shortwaves may enhance convective activity outside of peak
heating hours as well. Late in the week, the closed upper low
will move east and should be replaced by a weak upper trough.
This will continue shower and thunderstorm chances into the
weekend. Temperatures will be near normal for much of the
period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon showing quite a bit of
cloud cover across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee which has
resulted in temperatures a degree or two lower than originally
forecast and a little less instability. A weak frontal boundary
has slipped southward toward the northern periphery of the
forecast area this afternoon. Shortwave energy will move over
portions of the area this evening, supporting continued
activity. Abundant moisture is in place with pwat values around
1.9 to 2.0 inches. Instability is weak to moderate with ML CAPE
values around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. There is a marginal risk of
severe weather across the area this afternoon and evening with
damaging winds as the primary threat. DCAPE values are around
600 to 1000 J/kg with the highest values south. Effective bulk
shear is a little higher than yesterday at around 20 knots north
which may result in more organized convection than yesterday in
the form of multicells. Activity expected to diminish this
evening in the wake of the shortwave and with a loss of heating.
Overnight lows around 70. Patchy fog possible due to light to
calm winds and moist low levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A closed upper level low will persist along the New England coast
Wednesday and Thursday, with numerous disturbances expected to
rotate around the base of the trough and across the area. Meanwhile
at the surface, a nearly stationary front will extend across the
area.

Most of the convection during this time period will be diurnally
driven, with forcing for ascent enhanced by the passing disturbances
and convergence along the stalled front. Expect the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms to become numerous by Wednesday afternoon
and evening, before dissipating some later Wednesday night when the
coverage should become more isolated. Expect scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms again by Thursday afternoon.

There is a Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms across the area on
Wednesday, and the potential for at least isolated severe weather
will continue into Thursday. Locally damaging winds appears to be
the main severe weather threat in the afternoon and evening hours.

High temperatures will be around 90 or in the lower 90s both
afternoons, with morning lows on Thursday in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The closed upper level low finally shifts east of New England by the
end of the work week and quickly gets replaced by a northeast-
southwest oriented upper trough over the region through the weekend.
The surface front shifts southward, and stalls south and east of the
area through the weekend. This will continue the unsettled pattern,
but with the front and greatest moisture to the south, it looks like
the best potential for scattered mainly diurnal convection will be
across the CSRA and southern Midlands. Temperatures appear to be
near normal though the weekend.

By early next week, it appears that a wave of low pressure could
develop along the stalled front and track offshore. Lower confidence
in the timing and track of this potential low, but unsettled
conditions could certainly persist across the area, although with
slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms and showers remain a possibility
throughout the afternoon into early evening. Thunderstorms may
contain heavy rain and strong winds. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR
conditions will remain. Winds will be 5 to 10 knots from the
northwest, becoming light and variable overnight. Because of the low
overnight wind speeds, cannot rule out the possibility of fog
formation. Due to inconsistency in models, confidence was too low to
include.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for restrictions from
mainly diurnal convection and early morning fog will persist
through the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
639 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
011045-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
639 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening and
may produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms should develop on Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts will
be possible, similar to the previous few days. For the remainder of
the period, there is a low probability for widespread hazardous
weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
653 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

SCZ031-302345-
Sumter SC-
653 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of western Sumter County
Until 745 PM EDT....

At 653 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Oakland, or over Shaw Air Base, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Sumter, South Sumter, Shaw Air Base, Mulberry, Oakland, Sumter County
Airport, Millwood, Cane Savannah, Dalzell, Dinkins Mill, Lakewood,
Privateer, Wedgewood, East Sumter, Cherryvale and Stateburg.

LAT...LON 3377 8033 3377 8040 3373 8040 3392 8063
      3393 8062 3395 8063 3397 8062 3408 8053
      3394 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 305DEG 16KT 3397 8052

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
659 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

SCZ028-031-037-302345-
Calhoun SC-Sumter SC-Richland SC-
659 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of central Calhoun...
southwestern Sumter and southeastern Richland Counties Until 745 PM
EDT....

At 658 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Congaree National Park, or near McEntire Air
Base, moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
McEntire Air Base, Eastover, Gadsden, Poinsett State Park, Congaree
National Park, Pinewood, Fort Motte, Creston and Lone Star.

LAT...LON 3381 8094 3396 8081 3378 8042 3356 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 305DEG 16KT 3385 8081

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
722 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

SCZ016-022-116-010000-
Chesterfield SC-Southern Lancaster SC-Kershaw SC-
722 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northwestern
Chesterfield...Southern Lancaster and northeastern Kershaw Counties
Until 800 PM EDT....

At 722 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Pageland, moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Pageland, Kershaw, Carolina Sandhills Wildlife Refuge, Mt Pisgah,
Jefferson, Taxahaw, High Point Fire Station, Kershaw Correctional
Institution, Tradesville, Bay Springs Fire Station, Central High
School and Forty Acre Rock Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio and
television stations for additional information and possible warnings
from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8033 3459 8013 3448 8063 3482 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 336DEG 19KT 3480 8047

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
732 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

SCZ031-036-038-010015-
Orangeburg SC-Clarendon SC-Sumter SC-
732 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of east central
Orangeburg...southwestern Clarendon and southwestern Sumter Counties
Until 815 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Marion Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 731 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Poinsett State Park, or 9 miles southwest of
South Sumter, moving south at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Manning, Summerton, Santee State Park, Poinsett State Park, Santee
Cooper Regional Airport, Santee, Pinewood, Paxville, Vance, Rimini,
St. Paul, Lakewood, Privateer, Davis Station and Mill Creek Marina
and Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Marion should move to shore and seek shelter. Strong,
erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Persons in campgrounds should seek shelter until this storm passes.

&&

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 99 and 119.

LAT...LON 3342 8041 3355 8053 3354 8051 3356 8050
      3358 8052 3359 8050 3360 8052 3362 8052
      3363 8054 3364 8053 3365 8055 3381 8056
      3388 8036 3353 8011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 339DEG 19KT 3377 8044