Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
809 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level ridge over the region will move offshore on Monday
with isolated convection expected. Increasing chances of
convection will return Tuesday onward as moisture and the next
frontal boundary move into the region by mid to late week.
Temperatures will be near or above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Upper ridge axis has shifted east towards our eastern forecast
area (FA) early this evening as an upper short wave moves east
into W GA. Tranquil weather currently over our FA with a
relatively dry atmosphere and some suppression from the upper
ridge. However, just back to our west, where better moisture
exists, and with the upper short wave, shower and thunderstorm
activity developing and moving east across central GA. Think
some of this will remain intact and affect our western FA,
mainly the CSRA/Augusta metro, through early tonight. Main track
of upper short wave staying just to our north late tonight,
combined with loss of heating, in addition to sea breeze already
moving north ahead of it and thereby not being available for
enhanced convergence across our central FA, is expected to
allow most of the convection to dissipate before affecting metro
Columbia and our eastern FA. Raised POPs CSRA to 30- 40 percent
early tonight. With high DCAPE values in place, an isolated
stronger cell could be capable of reaching severe limits,
producing strong wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday and Monday night...Upper ridge moving offshore early in
the day. Upper trough from the northern Plains to the Midwest
amplifying a bit and moving into the Mississippi Valley. Upper
level flow becoming southwest across the area and moisture will
be increasing. Weak surface trough across the area and air mass
moderately unstable by afternoon with strong heating. Temps into
the low to mid 90s. There may be a weak short wave late in the
day or evening. Convection expected to be scattered with a few
storms approaching from Georgia and a few along the sea breeze.
Showers and thunderstorms expected to be diurnally driven but a
few may linger into the evening. Overnight lows into the low
70s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Moisture increasing across the
region as upper trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Weak
cold front moves into Tennessee Valley. Piedmont trough in
place across the region and moderate instability expected. A few
short wave triggers in southwest flow aloft and timing somewhat
uncertain but expect mainly diurnally driven convection with
temps in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper trough near the Great Lakes will continue to push
eastward through the end of the week. The main trough axis will
be east of the area by Friday with drier air expected over the
weekend. Ahead of this trough, a weak surface front will be
northwest of the area on Wednesday, with this front slowly
moving towards the forecast area Wednesday evening or early
Thursday. Ahead of this boundary, expecting increase in coverage
of showers and thunderstorms, especially Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Although the front may stall out across the cwa on
Thursday, there remains a chance that the front does not make it
into SC, and remains further north. With either scenario, the
front will still be somewhere near the region through Thursday
night to provide a focus for scattered thunderstorms mainly in
the afternoon and evening. Appears drier air will move into the
region behind the front over the weekend and with upper ridge
building over the area expect above normal temperatures and
afternoon thunderstorms isolated at best.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24hr TAF forecast period.

Upper ridge axis is shifting east of the forecast area this
evening with shortwave energy moving through the TN Valley which
is supporting convection to our west. Expect the convection to
diminish before reaching the terminals this evening but cannot
rule out a few showers around AGS/DNL so have included VCSH
through 03z. Otherwise, mainly clear skies with some higher
clouds moving in overnight as the shortwave crosses the region.
A low level jet and a larger dewpoint depression after the warm
day should limit fog potential overnight. Winds will pick up
from the southwest around 8 to 10 knots after 15z Monday.
Isolated convection expected Monday afternoon but coverage to
low to include in the forecast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions in early morning
fog/stratus possible each day. The chance for diurnal convection
will increase Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
343 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
220745-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
343 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
909 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

GAZ077-220145-
Burke GA-
909 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of southwestern Burke
County Until 945 PM EDT....

At 908 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Summertown, or 12 miles north of Swainsboro,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail and excessive
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Midville and Magruder.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3282 8226 3283 8231 3284 8231 3289 8229
      3301 8212 3292 8203 3292 8208 3288 8213
      3281 8215 3282 8216 3280 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 239DEG 14KT 3277 8228

HC