Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
855 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The air mass will remain moist and unstable through the weekend
and scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
are expected. Temperatures will be above normal. Temperatures
will be more seasonable early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Much of the forecast area has been worked over quite well from
numerous convective clusters during the afternoon and evening
hours. Currently, the forecast area is dry, but regional radars
showing additional showers and thunderstorms moving towards the
southern/western CSRA out of southern and central GA. Portions
of the CSRA did not have convection earlier, so there may still
be some lingering pockets of instability for the activity to tap
into as it moves into the CSRA in the next hour or so. The hrrr
does show scattered activity moving through the CSRA and then
into the central Midlands towards Midnight before falling apart
late tonight. Will increase pops once again later tonight to
account for this scenario. Expect dry weather by morning. Other
issue tonight may be some fog formation. There is a weak low-
level jet being shown later tonight, so confidence in widespread
fog is low. Have gone with some stratus late tonight, with
patchy fog possible. Temperatures in the mid and upper 60s late
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Saturday night...Upper level ridge will build
across the southeastern states over the weekend. The airmass
will remain moist and moderately to strongly unstable with steep
low to mid level lapse rates. With 850mb west flow/warm
advection expect temps around 90 degrees in the afternoon. Weak
surface trough across area. There may be a weak short wave
trough trigger moving to the southeast in northwest flow aloft.
CAM models support scattered convection/pulse severe mainly
across the north Midlands and Pee Dee in the afternoon and
evening. Min temps above normal near 70.

Sunday and Sunday night...Surface ridge over the Northeastern
States builds down the eastern seaboard and appears a back door
front will be approaching from eastern North Carolina late in
the day or in the evening. A sea breeze front is also possible
as low level flow becomes east. The air mass remains at least
moderately unstable with steep low to mid level lapse rates.
Scattered convection...isolated pulse severe...mainly in the
late afternoon and evening. The convection may continue
overnight but diminish as more stable air/front moves into the
area. Blended temperature guidance supports max temps near 90
again with min temps above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Front moving southwest through the area early monday and weak
shallow isentropic lift may result in considerable clouds and
showers mainly across the CSRA and south Midlands. The ridge will
build in from the northeast with drier air for Monday night and
Tuesday. Temperatures a little cooler/seasonable especially Monday.
Surface ridge extending from offshore Mid Atlantic states through
late week with building ridge aloft over the eastern CONUS as deep
low moves into the southern Plains. Persistent east to southeast
deep-layer flow for most of next week. Low chance convection through
the period. Temperatures warm under ridge but with east flow should
result in near normal values in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and storms now east of all terminals, however additional
showers/storms moving up from south-central Ga will move into
the CSRA in the next few hours. There remains a chance that this
activity could hold together enough to reach the Midlands
terminals by 06z. For now, vfr conditions prevail outside of
those showers/storms. Can not rule out brief mvfr/ifr conditions
if the storms impact any taf site the next several hours. Later
on tonight, guidance shows ceilings/visibilities lowering down
into mvfr towards morning. VFR conditions return by 13z
Saturday. Additional showers/storms may be possible Saturday
afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in mainly
diurnal showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
weekend with improvement early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts over the past 48 hours have ranged from 3 to 8
inches across much of the upper and central portions of the
river basins. This will lead to considerable river flooding on
many of the area rivers through the holiday weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
900 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
231300-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
900 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall
is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1039 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 E JEFFERSON           34.66N 80.27W
05/22/2020  M57 MPH          CHESTERFIELD       SC   MESONET

            MESONET STATION JEFS1 CAROLINA SANDHILLS
            MEASURED A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 57 MPH.

&&

HC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1133 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

SCZ025-026-030-230400-
Aiken SC-Saluda SC-Edgefield SC-
1133 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northwestern Aiken...
central Saluda and northeastern Edgefield Counties Until midnight
EDT....

At 1132 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 8 miles west of Saluda, or 17 miles southeast of
Greenwood, moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Saluda, Ridge Spring, Saluda County Airport, Ward, Emory, Saluda Co
Sheriff's Office, Good Hope and Saluda High School.

LAT...LON 3399 8199 3404 8195 3406 8194 3409 8192
      3410 8190 3402 8155 3378 8169 3398 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 295DEG 21KT 3402 8192

awp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1135 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

SCZ035-041-230400-
Barnwell SC-Bamberg SC-
1135 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of southeastern Barnwell
and Bamberg Counties Until midnight EDT....

At 1134 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Ulmer, or 9 miles northeast of Allendale,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Rivers Bridge State Park, Ehrhardt and Olar.

LAT...LON 3312 8119 3312 8122 3316 8123 3331 8096
      3324 8085 3321 8084 3318 8080 3312 8089
      3309 8088 3306 8090 3307 8092 3310 8094
      3303 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 240DEG 21KT 3308 8116

awp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1156 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

SCZ035-036-041-230430-
Orangeburg SC-Barnwell SC-Bamberg SC-
1156 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of west central
Orangeburg...east central Barnwell and northwestern Bamberg Counties
Until 1230 AM EDT....

At 1156 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Denmark, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Orangeburg, Bamberg, Denmark, Blackville, Barnwell State Park, Hilda,
Norway, Rowesville, Cordova, Cope, Govan, Edisto and Bamberg County
Airport.

LAT...LON 3318 8121 3335 8132 3359 8096 3338 8081
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 238DEG 25KT 3332 8120

awp