Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
232 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong front will cross the area along with thunderstorms and
potential for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes late
tonight into Monday morning. The front will stall along the
coast Monday afternoon then move back toward the area along with
another round of rain showers late Tuesday into Wednesday. High
pressure and dry weather will return for Thursday with
unsettled weather for Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Things continue to come together for a round of severe weather
this morning. With continued strong low level warm/moist
advection, MLCAPES have gone above 1000 J/Kg over the Midlands,
with 1500 in parts of the CSRA. Add in SRH values of 500+, and
you have a potent combination ripe for areas of straightline
wind damage, along with a few tornadoes.

The line should move steadily through the area from west to
east, with arrival in the CSRA in the next couple of hours, then
the Columbia Metro area roughly 6-7 AM. The entire line should
move offshore by late morning, with a very mild but breezy
afternoon in store. Temperatures will climb into the lower to
middle 80s. The Lake Wind Advisory will remain in place
until 5 PM as the deepening low to our north continues to
provide gusty westerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A front remains stalled along the coast during this time period with
high pressure building into The Midlands and CSRA. The GFS and EC
differ on the inland extent of showers Tuesday Night through
Wednesday as a wave develops along the front. The consensus
brings high chance/low likely POPs to east central GA and
central SC. Temperatures will be above normal on Monday, near
normal on Tuesday, and below normal on Wednesday with clouds and
showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure is over the Mid Atlantic Region on Thursday
and then moves offshore Friday. The EC and GFS bring an upper trough
into the Eastern U.S. next weekend but differ quite a bit on the
evolution of short waves rotating around the base of the trough.
Model consensus keeps Saturday dry, but introduces a chance of
showers for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread MVFR cigs blanket the forecast area ahead of an
approaching storm system. Earlier showers have shifted north of
the terminals and expect this lull in showers to continue for a
few hours with mainly just patchy light showers through 07z-08z.
A squall line to our west over TN/GA/AL will move east during
the predawn hours as instability and shear continue to increase
over our area. This will bring a high potential for severe
weather to move through the region affecting the terminals
between 09z-14z ahead of a low pressure system and front. IFR
restrictions expected in heavy rain associated with
thunderstorms. Winds ahead of the squall line will be from the
southeast and gradually veering to the south at speeds around 15
to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots, while gusts associated with
the squall line could exceed 40 knots. A very strong low level
jet at or above 50kts at 2000 ft so low level wind shear likely
through about 14z and frontal passage. Sky becoming mainly clear
after 16z with gusty west winds slowly diminishing as pressure
gradient relaxes by 00z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible late Tuesday
night into Wednesday as another fast moving low pressure system
moves through the area. Dry high pressure is expected to build
into the region for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
359 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
140800-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
359 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 117 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Wind Advisory.
   Tornado Watch.

Line of potentially severe thunderstorms moving towards the area
late tonight. Threat of damaging wind gusts as well as a few
tornadoes with this line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this morning.