Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
614 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will traverse the area tonight. Expect fair and
quite warm conditions Thursday and Friday ahead of a cold front
that will slip south into the region this weekend. Cooler
temperatures will end out the weekend and into the early
portions of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Widely scattered convection has developed mainly in the CSRA
near surface trough/weak to moderate instability ahead of warm
front. One thunderstorm developed a moderately strong core.
Expect these showers to weaken to the northeast into the
Midlands where instability more limited. IR satellite
indicating warming cloud tops. Have remained with low chance
pops along the Savannah River this evening then lower the pop
overnight as the warm front moves northward. Rainfall amounts
will remain light with less than one tenth of an inch expected.
Fog is expected to develop overnight and have included patchy
fog attm and will continue to monitor potential for widespread
or dense fog. With skies remaining mostly cloudy overnight
temperatures will be in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An area of high pressure should give us dry conditions from
Thursday through much of Friday. Temperatures will moderate
quite a bit, becoming quite warm for this time of the year.
Highs both days expected to be in the low to mid 80s, lows in
the 60s. By Friday afternoon/evening, a cold front will be
pushing towards the area from the west, bringing an increasing
chance for showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms as we
move into Friday night. The front will push through the forecast
area during the day on Saturday, with scattered showers
continuing through a good portion of the day. Rain chances will
diminish some into Saturday night as the front moves off to the
east. Temperatures Saturday will still be warm, with highs in
the 70s, Saturday night will see the colder air pushing back
into the region, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Sunday, wedgelike conditions develop. May see the
redevelopment of light scattered showers over-top of the cooler
surface airmass. Expecting plenty of cloud cover too associated
with the wedge. The cooler weather pattern will last into
Monday, then it looks as if the wedge will be able to break on
Tuesday, leading to warmer temperatures as we work towards the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions expected for much of the period.

Cumulus have begun developing across the terminals as the weak
warm front moves northward across the region. Over the next
couple of hours clouds are expected to increase and lower with
showers developing...mainly at AGS/DNL/OGB. Overnight the
showers will move north of the terminals however fog is expected
to develop. Have included MVFR fog at all terminals with IFR to
LIFR cigs. Fog will dissipate in the mid morning as mixing
increases.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Thursday
morning in fog/stratus. Restrictions again possible Saturday
through Monday as a frontal boundary moves through the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1000 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
191400-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
1000 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
449 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

GAZ040-063-064-182115-
McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-
449 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of central McDuffie...
southern Lincoln and western Columbia Counties Until 515 PM EDT....

At 449 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Wrightsboro, or near Thomson, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Thomson, Thomson-McDuffie County Airport, Wrightsboro, Sweetwater
Park, Thomson Fire Department, Amity Recreation Area, McDuffie
Regional Medical Center and University Hospital McDuffie.

This includes Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 167 and
177.

LAT...LON 3358 8263 3366 8248 3346 8239 3345 8257
      3344 8257 3346 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 241DEG 14KT 3350 8259

awp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
519 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ018-025-182145-
McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-McCormick SC-Edgefield SC-
519 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of north central
McDuffie...southeastern Lincoln...northern Columbia...southeastern
McCormick and southwestern Edgefield Counties Until 545 PM EDT....

At 518 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Thomson-McDuffie County Airport, or 8 miles
northeast of Thomson, moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Thomson, Appling, Clarks Hill Recreation Area, J. Strom Thurmond Dam,
Riverwood, Mistletoe State Park, Thomson-McDuffie County Airport,
Hamilton Branch State Park, Winfield, Modoc, Scott's Landing, White
Oak Campground, Columbia County Jail, Wildwood Park, Modoc Boat Ramp,
Ansley Mill, Eubank-Blanchard Community Center, Bussey Point
Campground, River Island and Riverside Park.

This includes Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 172 and
181.

LAT...LON 3365 8258 3365 8257 3364 8256 3364 8252
      3366 8251 3365 8249 3368 8250 3377 8219
      3357 8208 3346 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 250DEG 23KT 3357 8244

awp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
629 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

GAZ077-182300-
Burke GA-
629 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of southwestern Burke
County Until 700 PM EDT....

At 629 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 8 miles north of Midville, or 11 miles east of
Louisville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Waynesboro, Burke County Airport, Vidette, Di-
Lane Wildlife Management Area, Magruder and Rosier.

LAT...LON 3285 8229 3287 8230 3293 8227 3302 8228
      3315 8205 3294 8193 3292 8201 3292 8208
      3290 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 245DEG 16KT 3295 8221

awp

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