Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Columbia, SC

560 
WGUS62 KCAE 060906
FFACAE

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Columbia SC
406 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...Flash Flood Watch...

.A strong and slow moving cold front will bring heavy rain to
central South Carolina and the Central Savannah River Area of
Georgia today through tonight. 

GAZ040-063>065-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>028-030-115-116-070600-
/O.CON.KCAE.FF.A.0001.200206T1200Z-200207T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-
Aiken-Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
Including the cities of Lincolnton, Thomson, Martinez, Evans, 
Augusta, Hephzibah, Cheraw, Pageland, Mccormick, Newberry, 
Winnsboro, Winnsboro Mills, Camden, Lugoff, Edgefield, Johnston, 
Saluda, Ridge Spring, Seven Oaks, West Columbia, Cayce, 
Lexington, Red Bank, Oak Grove, Columbia, Aiken, North Augusta, 
Indian Land, Lancaster, Elgin, and Lancaster Mill
406 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east central Georgia and central South Carolina, 
  including the following areas, in east central Georgia, 
  Columbia, Lincoln, McDuffie, and Richmond. In central South 
  Carolina, Aiken, Chesterfield, Edgefield, Fairfield, Kershaw, 
  Lexington, McCormick, Newberry, Northern Lancaster, Richland, 
  Saluda, and Southern Lancaster. 

* From 7 AM EST this morning through late tonight

* Soils remain saturated from the recent wet period. Rainfall
  totals from 2 to 3 inches are expected through tonight. Locally
  higher amounts may occur leading to flash flooding.

* Rapid rises are expected on streams and creeks. Additionally,
  water will quickly pond in areas of poor-drainage. This will
  lead to the threat of roadways becoming flooded, especially this
  afternoon and evening. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

Do not attempt to drive on flooded roads. It takes little water
to move a vehicle off the road and into deeper water. On foot,
keep away from storm drains.

Owners of small ponds should monitor pond levels and dam
integrity. 

&&

$$

403 
WGUS62 KCAE 070352
FFACAE

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1052 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ040-063>065-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>028-030-115-116-070500-
/O.CAN.KCAE.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-200207T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-
Aiken-Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
Including the cities of Lincolnton, Thomson, Martinez, Evans, 
Augusta, Hephzibah, Cheraw, Pageland, Mccormick, Newberry, 
Winnsboro, Winnsboro Mills, Camden, Lugoff, Edgefield, Johnston, 
Saluda, Ridge Spring, Seven Oaks, West Columbia, Cayce, 
Lexington, Red Bank, Oak Grove, Columbia, Aiken, North Augusta, 
Indian Land, Lancaster, Elgin, and Lancaster Mill
1052 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of east central Georgia and
central South Carolina has been cancelled. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
643 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will slowly increase across the area as a low pressure
system approaches from the Lower Mississippi Valley the next few
days. A cold front will move through the region Thursday
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will occur along and ahead of
the front. The thunderstorms could be severe. Rain chances will
diminish Friday as the system moves away from the region with
dry high pressure expected for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today...Ridge offshore moving slowly east resulting in
increasing moisture across the region from the Gulf of Mexico.
High amplitude upper trough in the Plains late in the day with
resulting surface cyclogenesis across the lower Mississippi
Valley. A few weak short waves will move through the region
today in increasing southwest flow aloft and provide some lift
but the stronger isentropic lift and moisture flux appears to
remain mainly west of the area through the day. Current radar
showing some light rain across the area but amounts have been
negligible due to dry low levels. With increasing moisture by
this afternoon, chance pops mainly west CWA appear on track. It
will be warm with max temps in the low to mid 70s despite
considerable clouds.

Tonight...Increasing moisture especially after midnight as upper
trough moves east and surface low intensifies over the
Tennessee Valley. Warm advection and isentropic lift will
increase across the area resulting in more widespread showers.
Deep layer shear will be increasing and 0-1km storm relative
helicity will be increasing due to backing of low level winds.
Some model data suggest some weak surface based instability will
develop toward morning increasing strong thunderstorm threat.
For the most part expect convection to be elevated limiting
severe threat before 12z. But can't rule out an isolated severe
thunderstorm overnight. Temperatures may increase toward morning
as higher Theta-e air tries to advect north and warm advection
increasing. Heavier precipitation appears to remain west and
southwest of the region through daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday night...This remains the area of concern
for the forecast period as a strong cold front will be crossing
the region. Upper level trough will be digging through the
southern Plains and TX early Thursday as strong southerly flow
pumps moisture northward. Instability will be limited during the
day Thursday however winds aloft will be very strong with 50
knots at 2 kft and 60 knots at 3 kft with the jet stream around
140 knots. As such expect the main threats for severe weather to
be damaging winds and lower potential for tornadoes. SPC has
increased the risk from slight to enhanced. In addition to the
severe threat pwat values will be be 1.5 to 1.8 inches creating
the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding. WPC excessive
rainfall outlook keeps a slight risk over the area with a
moderate risk in the Upstate. Current QPF forecast for the
forecast area remains between 2 and 3 inches and with soils near
saturated will monitor for localized flooding potential.

Friday and Friday night...Cold front will move offshore early
Friday with high pressure and drier air moving into the region.
With strong cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient
over the region winds will be strong and gusty through the day.
With the expected saturated soils and strong winds there is
potential for some trees to blow over. Rivers will also be on
the rise and need to be monitored for possible flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level pattern will remain zonal through the weekend then begin
amplifying as an omega block develops from the central Pacific
through the US west coast. High pressure will be over the region
Saturday with the upper level trough swinging through the region
during the afternoon. With the trough axis will be another weak
shortwave which will be moisture limited and remain northwest of
the forecast area. The disturbance will move away from the
region Saturday night with high pressure and dry weather
returning for Sunday and early Monday. Clouds will increase
Monday as high pressure slides east of the area and southerly
flow begins pushing moisture into the area. A weak area of low
pressure will be over the area Monday night with rain showers
developing across the area.

Tuesday a deep upper level trough from the US west coast will begin
tracking eastward and bringing tropical moisture into the SW US with
models indicating increasing moisture across most of the southern
US. Across the SE US with a weak frontal boundary across the region
and increasing southerly flow pushing Gulf moisture into the area
rain chances will increase. Models have differing solutions as
to where the moisture axis will be and have trended the forecast
toward the ECMWF which will keep chance pops in the forecast
for Tuesday and Tuesday. Temperatures through the long term will
be near normal Saturday and Sunday with above normal for
Monday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR ceilings this morning mainly at AGS/DNL otherwise mid level
ceilings through the afternoon. Restrictions expected tonight as
moisture increases across the area ahead of developing low
pressure system moving northeast from the lower Mississippi
Valley.

Surface ridge offshore extending into the area. Moisture will
increase across the area as southwest flow increases ahead of
developing low pressure system in the lower Mississippi Valley.
Observations indicated MVFR ceilings early this morning in the
CSRA region spreading northeast toward CAE. Low clouds should
mix out later this morning with VFR dominating through the day.
Patchy light rain should lift northeast of the region this
morning as lift limited most of the day.

Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the evening and
increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Ceilings expected to lower
overnight with MVFR or perhaps IFR after 06z. Low level wind
shear expected with a 40 to 50 knot low level jet around 2000
ft. Showers expected to increase by 09z as warm advection/lift
increases ahead of approaching low pressure system.
Thunderstorms possible mainly elevated but confidence low to
12z Thursday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Expect restrictions in showers and
possible thunderstorms at times Thursday and Thursday night
mainly in convection as a low pressure system and strong cold
front moves through the region. Strong to severe thunderstorms
possible. Strong and gusty winds may occur Thursday and Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
501 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
061015-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
501 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms late tonight. The main threat will be
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A strong cold front will cross the area Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms ahead of the
front. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. River flooding
possible over the weekend into early next week.

Winds will be strong and gusty Thursday and Friday. A lake wind
advisory may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday and Thursday night.