Winter Storm Watch 6, NWS Buffalo, NY

998 
WWUS41 KBUF 251457
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
957 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

NYZ006>008-252300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0900Z-200229T2300Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
957 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations in excess of 2 feet possible. Snowfall rates may
  reach over 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high
  as 40 mph resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snow 
  amounts are expected to focus across the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible with very
  poor visibility and deep snow cover on roads. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes 
  Thursday and Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-252300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T1200Z-200229T2300Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
957 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Long duration heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of a foot or more possible in the most persistent
  lake snows. Snowfall rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour at
  times. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph resulting in
  significant blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
  counties. The greatest snow amounts are expected to focus across
  the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills and the
  higher terrain of western Wyoming County.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with very poor
  visibility and deep snow cover on roads. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes 
  Thursday and Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

919 
WWUS41 KBUF 251944
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
244 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

NYZ001-002-010-011-260400-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0000Z-200227T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
244 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in
  significant blowing snow.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through early Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult with very poor visibility
  and snow covered roadways. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the morning commute on Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-260400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0000Z-200229T2300Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
244 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible. Snowfall rates may reach
  1 to 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high as 45
  mph resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties. The greatest snow amounts are expected to focus 
  across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston 
  Hills and the higher terrain of western Wyoming County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with very poor 
  visibility and deep snow cover on roads. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes 
  Thursday and Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-260400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0900Z-200229T2300Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
244 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 3 feet possible. Snowfall rates may reach
  over 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high as 40
  to 45 mph resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snow 
  amounts are expected to focus across the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible with 
  very poor visibility and deep snow cover on roads. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening 
  commutes Thursday and Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

JJR

426 
WWUS41 KBUF 260308
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1008 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

NYZ012-019-020-085-261115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0000Z-200229T2300Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
1008 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible. Snowfall rates may reach
  1 to 2 inches per hour at times. Winds will likely gust as high
  as 45 mph resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties. The greatest snow amounts are expected to focus 
  across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston 
  Hills and the higher terrain of western Wyoming County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with very poor
  visibility and deep snow cover on roads. The hazardous
  conditions will likely impact commutes from Thursday morning
  through Friday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. 
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-261115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0900Z-200229T2300Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1008 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 3 FEET possible. Snowfall rates may exceed
  2 inches per hour at times. Winds will likely gust as high as 
  40 to 45 mph resulting in SIGNIFICANT blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snow 
  amounts are expected to focus across the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible with very
  poor visibility and deep snow cover on roads. The hazardous
  conditions likely impact commutes from Thursday morning through
  Friday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-261115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0000Z-200227T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
1008 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess
  of 6 inches possible. Winds will likely gust as high as 45 mph 
  resulting in significant blowing snow.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through early Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult with very poor visibility
  and snow covered roadways. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the Thursday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

613 
WWUS41 KBUF 260927
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
427 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

NYZ001-002-010-011-261730-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0000Z-200227T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.200227T0300Z-200227T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
427 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM 
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 
  inches. Winds could gust as high as 45 to 50 mph resulting in 
  significant blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will become very difficult with very poor 
  visibility and snow covered roadways. The hazardous conditions 
  will greatly impact the Thursday morning commute. Gusty winds 
  could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&


$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-261730-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0000Z-200229T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0004.200227T0300Z-200229T2300Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
427 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 
PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Long duration heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 1 to 2 feet with locally higher amounts possible 
  in the most persistent bands. Snowfall rates may reach 1 to 2 
  inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high as 45 to 50 mph 
  resulting in SIGNIFICANT blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will become be very difficult to impossible with 
  very poor visibility and deep snow cover on roads. The hazardous 
  conditions will greatly impact the morning and evening commutes. 
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4246 7812 4280 7798 4288 7820 4278 7848 
        4279 7884 4261 7902 4227 7975 4199 7977 4199 7923 
        4212 7877 
TIME Y20M02D27T1200Z-Y20M02D28T0000Z
COORD...4276 7804 4279 7839 4241 7934 4219 7977 
        4199 7977 4208 7875 4219 7852 4219 7829 4226 7809 
        4233 7817 
TIME Y20M02D28T0000Z-Y20M02D28T1200Z
COORD...4287 7802 4286 7847 4278 7881 4262 7893 
        4233 7939 4221 7973 4199 7977 4213 7933 4216 7873 
        4227 7820 
TIME Y20M02D28T1200Z-Y20M02D29T0000Z
COORD...4248 7809 4286 7797 4286 7847 4278 7878 
        4244 7937 4227 7975 4199 7977 4199 7923 4215 7856 
        4229 7845 
TIME Y20M02D29T0000Z-Y20M02D29T1200Z
COORD...4255 7834 4277 7819 4271 7850 4268 7889 
        4234 7948 4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7923 4210 7895 
        4222 7843 
TIME Y20M02D29T1200Z-Y20M03D01T0000Z

$$

NYZ006>008-261730-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0006.200227T0900Z-200229T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0004.200227T1200Z-200229T2300Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
427 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Long duration heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 3 feet with locally higher amounts 
  possible in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates may 
  exceed 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high as 
  45 to 50 mph resulting in SIGNIFICANT blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 6 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will become be very difficult to impossible with 
  very poor visibility and deep snow cover on roads. The hazardous 
  conditions will greatly impact the morning and the evening 
  commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4398 7578 4398 7581 4396 7587 4394 7588 
        4394 7584 4395 7578 
TIME Y20M02D27T1200Z-Y20M02D27T1800Z
COORD...4406 7516 4400 7541 4395 7593 4384 7611 
        4369 7614 4352 7602 4350 7578 4342 7550 4352 7536 
        4360 7513 
TIME Y20M02D27T1200Z-Y20M02D27T1800Z
COORD...4406 7516 4400 7534 4398 7578 4380 7620 
        4364 7614 4356 7622 4349 7569 4342 7550 4352 7536 
        4360 7513 
TIME Y20M02D27T1800Z-Y20M02D28T0000Z
COORD...4380 7515 4384 7514 4385 7517 4383 7517 
        4378 7518 4376 7516 4378 7515 4376 7513 4378 7512 
        4380 7512 
TIME Y20M02D28T0000Z-Y20M02D28T0600Z
COORD...4402 7519 4390 7548 4389 7577 4374 7622 
        4359 7622 4345 7656 4342 7631 4348 7581 4342 7550 
        4360 7513 
TIME Y20M02D28T0000Z-Y20M02D28T0600Z
COORD...4387 7514 4387 7522 4377 7606 4356 7622 
        4352 7644 4336 7662 4338 7593 4347 7570 4342 7550 
        4360 7513 
TIME Y20M02D28T0600Z-Y20M02D28T1200Z
COORD...4345 7555 4347 7570 4345 7570 4343 7556 
TIME Y20M02D28T1200Z-Y20M02D29T0000Z
COORD...4389 7513 4385 7559 4389 7577 4379 7606 
        4354 7617 4336 7638 4330 7600 4348 7581 4329 7584 
        4360 7513 
TIME Y20M02D28T1200Z-Y20M02D29T0000Z
COORD...4345 7555 4347 7570 4345 7570 4343 7556 
TIME Y20M02D29T0000Z-Y20M02D29T0600Z
COORD...4360 7513 4389 7513 4389 7577 4375 7609 
        4356 7622 4343 7661 4325 7661 4319 7595 4348 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y20M02D29T0000Z-Y20M02D29T0600Z
COORD...4360 7513 4384 7514 4385 7580 4351 7629 
        4343 7661 4325 7661 4328 7620 4319 7598 4348 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y20M02D29T0600Z-Y20M03D01T0000Z

$$

NYZ021-261730-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0004.200227T0300Z-200229T2300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
427 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 
PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Prolonged heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 10 to 20 inches in the most persistent lake 
  snows. Winds could gust as high as 45 to 50 mph resulting in 
  significant blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Northwest Allegany county.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will become very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning or evening commutes. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4246 7812 4280 7798 4288 7820 4278 7848 
        4279 7884 4261 7902 4227 7975 4199 7977 4199 7923 
        4212 7877 
TIME Y20M02D27T1200Z-Y20M02D28T0000Z
COORD...4276 7804 4279 7839 4241 7934 4219 7977 
        4199 7977 4208 7875 4219 7852 4219 7829 4226 7809 
        4233 7817 
TIME Y20M02D28T0000Z-Y20M02D28T1200Z
COORD...4287 7802 4286 7847 4278 7881 4262 7893 
        4233 7939 4221 7973 4199 7977 4213 7933 4216 7873 
        4227 7820 
TIME Y20M02D28T1200Z-Y20M02D29T0000Z
COORD...4248 7809 4286 7797 4286 7847 4278 7878 
        4244 7937 4227 7975 4199 7977 4199 7923 4215 7856 
        4229 7845 
TIME Y20M02D29T0000Z-Y20M02D29T1200Z

$$

NYZ004-005-261730-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0007.200228T0300Z-200229T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
427 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 7 to 14 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 45 to 50 mph resulting in
  significant blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

TMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
356 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will turn active through the weekend. First a weakening
area of low pressure will track south of the region with some rain
and snow across the area today and tonight. A second, stronger area
of low pressure will bring another round of rain changing to snow
Wednesday through early Thursday. A strong cold front associated
with the second area of low pressure will track across the region
bring colder air and the potential for heavy lake effect snow for
areas east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario from Thursday through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Early this morning, temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s across
the WNY area, where rain is starting to move in from the southwest.
Rain will continue to track northeast through the morning, but
become a bit disorganized as the low level jet that is providing the
forcing weakens through the night time hours. Cloud cover this
morning is overcast across the area as a weakening area of low
pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley toward the mid Atlantic
coast.

Behind the area of light steady precipitation this morning, showers
will be possible from the late morning through mid afternoon.
Another round of precipitation will track north into the area as a
baroclinic zone stretches northeast from the mid Mississippi Valley
toward the Eastern Great Lakes. POPs with this precip will increase
during the late afternoon across the NY/PA line and then slowly
increase toward the north. Temperatures today will be in the upper
30s to around 40.

Tonight, the narrow band of steadier precipitation associated with
the baroclinic zone over the region will continue to move north and
precipitation should taper off to showers. Temperatures tonight will
get cold enough for most areas to expect a changeover to snow.
Snowfall accumulations will generally be around one to three inches
with the greatest amounts over the higher terrain. Temperatures
tonight will be in the low to mid 30s. With these temperatures, snow
ratios will be fairly low, helping to limit the amount of snow
accumulation some.

Wednesday, the steadier precipitation will track to the north of the
area, with showers possible during the morning. A potent shortwave
trough will track southeast across the Central Plains today, and
round the base of a larger mid/upper level trough in place through
tonight into Wednesday. As this shortwave approaches the upper level
jet associated with the earlier area of low pressure a surface low
will begin to reform and strengthen Wednesday. POPs will begin to
increase from west to east during the late morning into the
afternoon as the area of low pressure and swath of moisture becomes
better organized over the Ohio Valley, and tracks northeast towards
the region. Enough warm air will be in place on Wednesday for all
the precipitation to change to rain by the late afternoon after
briefly starting as snow or a mix of rain and snow in some places.
Guidance for Wednesday is starting to trend colder some, so
temperatures have been adjusted some to account for this. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid 30s to low 40s, with
the coldest temperatures along the northwestern portion of the area
and the warmest temperatures along the southeastern portion of the
area. Temperatures will warm through the day into the evening as
warm air advection ahead of the area of low pressure brings temps up
across the region. Snow accumulations on Wednesday before the
changeover to rain will be around a a half inch to one inch for the
North Country and the Niagara Frontier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very complex synoptic evolution will then unfold Wednesday
night and Thursday. The sharp Ohio Valley trough will deepen
further, and take on a negative tilt as it phases with
additional shortwave energy diving into the western portion of
the trough. The surface low will move northeast across Lake Erie
Wednesday night, moving north of Lake Ontario by Thursday. The
associated cold front will cross our region slowly from west to
east Wednesday night, with most of the operational guidance
suggesting one or more baroclinic waves running northward along
the advancing front. The presence of these waves greatly
complicates the forecast, as the waves may force the front to
take on more anabatic characteristics with steadier, heavier
precipitation developing on the cold side of the frontal zone.

Expect a period of widespread precipitation Wednesday night with the
passage of this system, generally advancing from west to east across
the eastern Great Lakes. Forcing is very strong, and the system will
capture an impressive plume of deep moisture with Gulf of Mexico
origins. The quality of moisture and dynamics coming together will
produce a general 0.50"-0.75" of liquid equivalent across the region
Wednesday night. Precipitation type will generally be rain ahead of
the front, then transition quickly to wet snow behind the frontal
zone from west to east overnight. There may be a period of
accumulating wet snow in some areas behind the front, although
amounts will be highly dependent on the fine details of how the
aforementioned frontal waves develop.

Temperatures never get as warm east of Lake Ontario, and its
possible some, or even most of the precipitation may fall as wet
snow across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western
foothills of the Adirondacks, even on the warm side of the frontal
zone. The potential for accumulating synoptic snow Wednesday night
will need to be watched closely in future model runs, given the
complexity and strongly forced nature of the system.

Cold air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes Thursday as the
surface low deepens further across the Ottawa Valley. General wrap
around snow showers will continue as the deep, closing off mid level
trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Lake effect/lake enhanced
snow will also develop east of the lakes. Given the proximity of the
upper level low, there may be some shear initially that inhibits
band organization. Even so, lake enhanced and orographically
enhanced snow will likely produce moderate accumulations across the
higher terrain east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. It will also be quite
windy Thursday, with wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range common
across the region. Advisory level gusts in excess of 45 mph are a
possibility. The wind will also produce significant blowing snow
where accumulating snow is falling east of the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
...Significant Lake Effect Snow Possible Late This Week...

A mid level trough will evolve into a cutoff low Thursday night over
southern Quebec, then remain in place through Saturday before slowly
moving east towards the Canadian Maritimes later Sunday. A strong
surface low will become vertically stacked beneath its mid level
counterpart Thursday night, then gradually fill as the system
occludes through the end of the week. The overall synoptic scale
pattern strongly suggests the potential for a long lasting,
significant lake effect snow event east of Lakes Erie and Ontario
for the latter portion of the week, matching well the analog pattern
of past significant westerly flow lake effect snow events. CIPS
analogs also suggest a strong potential for a significant lake
effect snow event east of the lakes, with the relative greatest
potential east of Lake Ontario. It will be quite windy, especially
early in this event Thursday through Thursday night, with
significant blowing and drifting snow.

This will be a long lasting event, starting Thursday morning and
lasting through Saturday night. The best setup may end up being
later Friday and Friday night, when the coldest air aloft, deepest
moisture, and strongest synoptic scale support all come together.
This may be the period of greatest snowfall rates and accumulation,
flanked by periods of light to moderate snow before and after.
Diurnal impacts will need to be considered given how late in the
season we are. The higher sun angle and stronger daytime diurnal
mixing can disrupt the band scale ageostrophic circulations,
resulting in less organizational structure during the afternoon and
early evening in late season events. A more dense synoptic scale
overcast would help alleviate these concerns, and it appears that
may be possible Friday.

The long lasting nature of this event and quality of the setup
suggest this has the potential to be a major event. It remains too
early for specifics, but snowfall accumulations over the 3 day
period from Thursday through Saturday may be measured in feet. Off
Lake Erie the greatest amounts will focus across the higher terrain
east of the lake, and well south of the Buffalo Metro Area. Off Lake
Ontario, the greatest amounts will focus across the higher terrain
of the Tug Hill region. Of the two lakes, snowfall will likely be
highest east of Lake Ontario where the best setup appears to last
the longest. Boundary layer flow will become northwesterly towards the
end of the event later Saturday or Saturday night, spreading
multiple bands and lighter accumulations to areas southeast of Lake
Ontario.

The lake effect snow will finally taper off and end Sunday as high
pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. This will be quickly
followed by the start of a warming trend Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found, but these
will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR through the next 6 hours as low
pressure over the Lower Ohio Valley spins northeastward. This
surface low will send a batch of mainly rain, and higher
elevations snow (KJHW) over our WNY TAF region this morning. A
light northeast wind will prevail this morning and afternoon.

The precipitation combined with a northeast flow will bring at
least MVFR and likely IFR flight conditions this morning across
WNY. With the warm frontal precipitation stalling and then
weakening today...KART will likely remain dry with the
precipitation just to the south of the airfield.

Tonight another wave of warm frontal precipitation will pass
across the TAF region with widespread IFR flight conditions.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with morning rain and snow giving way to
periods of rain Wednesday afternoon...then changing back to all
snow Wednesday night.
Thursday and Friday...LIFR/IFR in potentially heavy lake effect
snow east of the lakes...with MVFR/VFR and scattered snow showers
elsewhere.
Saturday...IFR/MVFR with lake effect snow southeast of the lakes...
and scattered to numerous snow showers elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds will become northeasterly and slowly increase today as
low pressure slowly makes its way into the Lower Ohio Valley.
Further strengthening of the northeasterly flow is then expected as
the low tracks further up the Ohio Valley tonight. Have issued Small
Craft Advisories on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie as outlined below.

These initial Small Craft Advisories are just the open of what will
be a very active mid to late week period on both Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario as a deepening storm system brings an increasing potential
for gales to both lakes beginning late Wednesday night into Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
         Wednesday for LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
         Wednesday for LOZ044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...SW/Thomas
MARINE...JLA/JJR/SW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
250 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-021-252000-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
250 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A strong low pressure system is expected to move across the eastern
Great Lakes Wednesday night, then stall over southern Quebec Thursday
through Saturday. Rain Wednesday and Wednesday evening will change to
wet snow later Wednesday night, with some accumulation possible.

Periods of snow showers will then continue Thursday through Saturday,
with generally light accumulations in most areas. It will be quite
windy Thursday through Thursday night, with wind gusts in excess of
40 mph possible. This will result in some blowing snow where enough
fresh snow accumulates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019-020-085-252000-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
250 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A strong low pressure system is expected to move across the eastern
Great Lakes Wednesday night, then stall over southern Quebec Thursday
through Saturday. Rain Wednesday and Wednesday evening will change to
wet snow later Wednesday night, with some accumulation possible.

A westerly flow of much colder air will then set the stage for a long
lasting, significant lake effect snow event Thursday through Saturday
night east of Lake Erie. The heaviest accumulations will focus on
the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and western
Wyoming County. 1 to 2 feet of accumulation is possible over the 3
day period across the higher terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-252000-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
250 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A strong low pressure system is expected to move across the eastern
Great Lakes Wednesday night, then stall over southern Quebec Thursday
through Saturday. Rain Wednesday and Wednesday evening will change to
wet snow later Wednesday night, with some accumulation possible.
Precipitation may be wet snow for much of the time across the higher
terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the
Adirondacks, with moderate to heavy accumulations possible.

A westerly flow of much colder air will then set the stage for a long
lasting, significant lake effect snow event Thursday through Saturday
night east of Lake Ontario. The heaviest accumulations will focus on
the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau. 2 to 3 feet of
accumulation is possible over the 3 day period across the higher
terrain, with lesser, but still significant snow amounts across the
surrounding lower elevations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-252000-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
250 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A strong area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday night, then move into southern Quebec Thursday and Thursday
night. Westerly gales are possible Thursday and Thursday night on
Lakes Erie and Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-252000-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
250 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock