Winter Storm Watch 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

141 
WWUS41 KBUF 181151
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
651 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

NYZ001>003-011-181300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200218T1300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
and Batavia
651 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Freezing rain has ended across the area. Wet snow, mixed with rain
will change to all rain by mid morning. Travel conditions will 
rapidly improve early this morning as temperatures rise above 
freezing.

$$

NYZ008-182000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200218T2000Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
651 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 
  mph.

* WHERE...Lewis county. Greatest accumulations across the 
  southern portion of the county.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions 
  and greatly reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will 
  impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-182000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.200220T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
651 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 9 inches possible in the most persistent 
  lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow covered 
  roads and poor visibility in narrow bands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

769 
WWUS41 KBUF 181319
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
819 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

NYZ006-182130-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200218T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.200220T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
819 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, wet and slushy snow
  gradually changing to rain by midday. Additional snow
  accumulations of 2 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 
  mph. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy lake effect snow 
  possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches possible in 
  the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until noon EST today. 
  For the Winter Storm Watch, from Wednesday evening through 
  Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel this morning will be difficult due to snow and
  slush covered roads. The hazardous conditions will impact the
  morning commute. Another period of difficult travel is possible
  Wednesday night into Thursday morning due to heavy lake effect 
  snow and poor visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

Narrow bands of heavy snow Wednesday night into Thursday could 
impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be 
possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-181700-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200218T1700Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
819 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, gradually mixing with and changing to rain
  by midday. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson county.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Travel this morning will be difficult due to snow and
  slush covered roads along with poor visibility. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ008-182000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200218T2000Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
819 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 
  mph.

* WHERE...Lewis county. Greatest accumulations across the 
  southern portion of the county.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions 
  and greatly reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will 
  impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-182130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.200220T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
819 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 9 inches possible in the most persistent 
  lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow covered 
  roads and poor visibility in narrow bands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

JLA

319 
WWUS41 KBUF 181658
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

NYZ006-190100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200218T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.200220T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 9 inches possible in the most persistent 
  lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow covered roads
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Thursday morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-181800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200218T1700Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Widespread snow has ended, therefore the winter weather advisory 
is cancelled.


$$

NYZ008-181800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200218T2000Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Though some light snow may continue across southern Lewis county 
early this afternoon, the widespread snow has ended. Therefore the
advisory has been cancelled. 

$$

NYZ004-005-190100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.200220T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 9 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow covered roads
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Thursday morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$
JLA

790 
WWUS41 KBUF 182106
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
406 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

NYZ004>006-190515-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.200220T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
406 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Accumulating lake effect snow likely. Total snow 
  accumulations in excess of 6 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Wednesday evening and or Thursday morning 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

881 
WWUS41 KBUF 190310
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1010 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

NYZ004>006-191115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.200220T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
1010 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Accumulating lake effect snow likely. Total snow 
  accumulations in excess of 6 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday evening and or Thursday morning 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

677 
WWUS41 KBUF 190832
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
332 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

NYZ004>006-191645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.200220T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
332 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 10 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Snowfall rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour at times.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. The
  greatest snow amounts are expected to focus across northeast
  Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From this evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow covered roads
  and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the Thursday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

875 
WWUS41 KBUF 191705
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1205 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

NYZ004>006-200115-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0005.200220T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0003.200220T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
1205 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall
  rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour at times from late this
  evening through daybreak on Thursday.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. The
  greatest snow amounts are expected to focus across northern
  Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult at times. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Thursday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The heaviest snow will fall in very narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Visibilities will be sharply reduced to less than one-half mile 
during the heaviest snow. 

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4344 7581 4348 7603 4350 7602 4349 7656 
        4334 7683 4327 7676 4324 7645 4320 7629 4328 7619 
        4316 7588 
TIME Y20M02D20T0000Z-Y20M02D20T0600Z
COORD...4335 7587 4339 7598 4343 7667 4333 7690 
        4333 7738 4323 7730 4319 7709 4318 7647 4324 7645 
        4316 7588 
TIME Y20M02D20T0600Z-Y20M02D20T1200Z
COORD...4324 7645 4333 7738 4324 7739 4317 7731 
        4305 7723 4300 7714 4301 7680 4303 7680 4302 7662 
        4302 7650 
TIME Y20M02D20T1200Z-Y20M02D20T1800Z

$$
JLA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1228 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move from the central Great Lakes late tonight to
southern Quebec Tuesday. Wet snow will overspread the area from west
to east late tonight, quickly changing to rain across Western New
York on Tuesday as temperatures warm. The wet snow will last longer
east of Lake Ontario with several inches of accumulation Tuesday
morning before mixing with rain in the afternoon. Colder air will
then move back into the region Wednesday through Thursday with some
lake effect snow southeast of the lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Radar imagery showing plenty of returns across Western NY, but
surface obs show little of this reaching the ground just yet with
00Z KBUF sounding showing plenty of low level dry air in place.
Eventually though, large scale lift from approaching shortwave and
right entrance jet forcing will overcome the low-levels and precip
will break out by 08z/3 AM over western NY, by 10z/5 AM in the
Finger Lakes and shortly thereafter east of Lake Ontario. Once the
precip arrives, larger scale lift mentioned supplemented by
persistent H85 moisture transport on nose of 50-65kt low-level jet
will support a 6-9 hour period of steady precipitation, tapering by
late morning over western NY and not until mid to late afternoon
east of Lake Ontario. Other than undercutting latest GFS guidance
with overall qpf and also taking a bit off NAM and high res guidance
qpf due to upslope lifting east of Lake Ontario on the Tug Hill,
good consensus is present with timing and qpf amounts.

Ptype remains a challenge with the system, but we'll break down how
is looks at this time. Based on model soundings and a slightly
deepening sfc low tracking northwest and north of here later
tonight into Tuesday morning, still prefer a rather quick change
over from snow to rain over western NY, including the Buffalo
metro area. This will occur first along the Lake Erie shore
where the ptype may just start as rain right away. Thankfully,
there really is no warm layer aloft in play here, so it looks
like blyr warming snow to rain scenario with limited mixed
precip. Could be a very brief period of sleet or freezing rain,
but both ptypes were too minimal in extent and/or duration to
include in the grids/forecast. Snow will take a bit longer to
turn to rain at ROC and across the Finger Lakes, but it should
happen shortly after daybreak Tuesday and snow amounts of 2-3
inches at the most precludes issuing any additional advisories
right now. Finally, the cold air hangs in longest east of Lake
Ontario on the higher terrain of the Tug Hill. More of a snow
ptype here with several inches of snow expected as SLRs peak
around climo of 16:1. As it looked like last day or so, max
snowfall occurs in the upslope areas of Tug Hill in Lewis
county. Though edges of Oswego and Jefferson could see isold
advy amounts, it was not enough in extent to expand our going
winter weather advisory.

Ptype and snow is not the only issue though with this system as very
strong low-level jet leads to some wind issues as well. Upshot is
thought the NAM was too strong with its low-level jet topping out
over 70 kts from Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region.
Blend of higher NAM with more toned down, but still strong
(50-60 kts) GFS and Canadian, resulted in near wind advisory
gusts late tonight near Lake Erie and over the higher terrain
west and north of the Finger Lakes. Enough confidence that wind
gusts could at least reach 45 mph if not higher in the downslope
areas off the Tug Hill late tonight through much of Tuesday to
go ahead and issue a wind advisory for Lewis and Jefferson
counties. Timing of two hazards (wind and snow) appear too
different to wrap the wind hazard into the going advisory
headline for winter weather. Expect the strong winds to continue
even beyond when warmer air changes the snow to rain early
Tuesday afternoon.

Finally, colder air arriving from the west later Tuesday afternoon
will begin to allow the rain to mix back with snow over the higher
terrain of western NY. Eventually all areas switch back to snow on
Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday evening there will be some lingering showers as low pressure
tracks across southern Quebec. Initially it will not be cold enough
to support lake effect snow, with forecast thermal profiles
suggesting that there will even be some rain mixed in across
lower elevations Tuesday evening. Also, precipitation will be
light, since it will be driven by modest upsloping and an
approaching shortwave. The shortwave will push a cold front
across the region late Tuesday night, and this will drop 850mb
temperatures down to -12 to -14c by daybreak Wednesday. This
combined with some limited moisture with the shortwave will
cause lake effect snow to develop late in the night and into
Wednesday morning. By the time it cools enough for the lake
effect snow to blossom, the flow will be WNW and this will
quickly shift to the NW. Although temperatures aloft will cool
even more during the day Wednesday the moisture will get
stripped away by Wednesday afternoon resulting in limited lake
activity.

The steadiest snows will be late Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning southeast of Lake Ontario. It's difficult to tell if the
flow will be too strong for a singular band to develop. If there
is no organized banding, then expect a generic 2-3 inches
east/southeast of Lake Ontario during this time. If banding does
develop, locally higher amounts will occur. The northwest flow
is likely to produce multi- banded, disorganized lake snows east
of Lake Erie, with limited accumulation. Elsewhere, expect
mostly cloudy conditions with scattered snow showers. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 20s.

The greatest potential for significant snow accumulation is
southeast of Lake Ontario late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. A subtle secondary shortwave will move across the
region during this time, and provide additional moisture which
may be enhanced by Lake Superior and Lake Huron. By this time
850mb temperatures will be down to about -18c which is plenty
cold enough to support lake effect, and is also likely to
support a fluffy snow with 20:1 snow/liquid ratios. Equilibrium
levels will also rise to 7-8k feet which will support deeper
moisture and heavier snowfall rates.

The main forecast question is if a singular convergence band will
develop across Lake Ontario. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM guidance all at
least hint at this in wind fields, but are not terribly
impressive in QPF fields. This said, lower resolution model
guidance cannot be expected to resolve a singular band. There is
not ample confidence to issue a Watch at this point, but the
main area of concern is Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southwestern
Oswego counties. Northern portions of Orleans and Monroe
counties will also have to be monitored. We would like to see
additional runs support this, since even a slight shift in wind
profiles could move or disrupt banding all together.

Elsewhere, expect fairly generic snow showers with generally light
snow accumulations. Whatever band does develop by Thursday morning
will weaken as it drops southward Thursday afternoon. Either way,
Thursday will be a cold day with highs ranging from the teens to
lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect snows southeast of the lakes will dwindle off throughout
the day on Friday as warm and dry air will be advected into the
region by an area of broad high pressure. The lake snows off of Lake
Ontario will last further into the day than the snows off of Lake
Erie which should subside Friday morning. The aforementioned area of
broad high pressure looks to remain overhead Friday night into
Sunday resulting in a gradual warming trend with dry conditions.

The next possibilities for precipitation come into the picture
Sunday afternoon through Monday as a cold front sweeps east through
the region. Primarily this precipitation should fall as rain on
Sunday, while switching over and remaining as snow overnight Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Snow will overspread Western NY from 07Z-09Z with VSBY quickly
dropping to IFR, and CIGS to MVFR. The snow will only last for a few
hours before changing to rain as temperatures warm. Areas close to
Lake Erie will change to rain first, followed by areas farther east
during the morning hours. Once precipitation changes to rain, VSBY
will improve to MVFR and VFR. Southeast downslope flow will help to
keep CIGS in the MVFR or even VFR range across the lower elevations,
with IFR developing across higher terrain through the morning hours.

East of Lake Ontario, snow will develop by early morning and snow
will last for a little longer period of time with widespread IFR
VSBY and MVFR CIGS through the morning. Precipitation will then
change to rain in the afternoon, especially across the lower
elevations with VSBY improving to MVFR and VFR.

The rain will then end from west to east during the afternoon, with
MVFR CIGS continuing. A strong low level jet will initially produce
strong low level wind shear through the early morning. Winds will
then partially mix to the surface, with gusty winds through the day
Tuesday. Gusts of 25 to 35 knots will be common, with a few sporadic
gusts to 40 knots possible.

Outlook...
Wednesday and Thursday... Mainly VFR, except for localized IFR
conditions in lake snows southeast of the lakes.
Friday and Saturday...VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will  move from central lower Michigan late tonight to
southern Quebec by late Tuesday. A strong low level jet ahead of the
system will support fairly strong southerly winds late tonight and
Tuesday morning, becoming southwest Tuesday afternoon and then
westerly by Wednesday. This will support an extended period of Small
Craft Advisory conditions on Lakes Erie and Ontario starting late
tonight and lasting through at least Wednesday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this
     afternoon for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 3 PM
     EST this afternoon for NYZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 PM
         EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to
         7 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
         Wednesday for LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JLA/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/JLA/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
516 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

NYZ001-002-010-011-181030-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
516 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-181030-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
516 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Gusty winds will develop very late tonight through Tuesday,
especially along the Lake Erie shore and across higher terrain. Wind
gusts may reach 40 to 45 mph at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-181030-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
516 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Lake effect snow will develop southeast of Lake Ontario Wednesday,
and continue through Thursday. The greatest accumulations are
expected from late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-181030-
Oswego-
516 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Snow will overspread the area very late tonight and Tuesday morning,
before changing to rain Tuesday afternoon. Accumulations of 1-3
inches are expected, with 2-4 inches across the Tug Hill. There will
be a brief period of blowing snow as well Tuesday morning before
temperatures warm above freezing. Winds may gust up to 40 mph
Tuesday.

Lake effect snow will develop southeast of Lake Ontario Wednesday,
and continue through Thursday. The greatest accumulations are
expected from late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-181030-
Jefferson-
516 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Snow will overspread the area very late tonight and Tuesday morning,
before changing to rain Tuesday afternoon. Accumulations of 2-4
inches are expected. There will be a brief period of blowing snow as
well Tuesday morning before temperatures warm above freezing. Winds
may gust up to 40 to 45 mph Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-181030-
Lewis-
516 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Winds may gust up to 40 to 45 mph Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-181030-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
516 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-181030-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
516 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
305 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

NYZ001-010-180930-
Niagara-Northern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Buffalo
305 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

...BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN...

The snow has changed to freeing rain in a few locations from the
Buffalo Northtowns, Grand Island, and Niagara County. The period
of freezing rain will be very brief, with temperatures rising
above freezing before daybreak. Untreated roads may briefly become
slippery in a few locations.

Hitchcock