Alert archive / New York / Wind Advisories in 2020

Wind Advisory 17, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 27, 20207 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this wind advisory at Dec 27, 2020, 3:44 AM EST for 7 counties in New York. It took effect at Dec 27, 2020, 9:00 PM EST. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 27, 2020, 3:44 AM EST (08:44 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 27, 2020, 9:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 28, 2020, 2:30 PM EST
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 24 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 21 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2020-12-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2020-12-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 154 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
722 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
136 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

744 
WWUS71 KBUF 270844
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
344 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

NYZ019-085-271645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.201228T0200Z-201228T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
344 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph tonight,
  becoming southwest Monday morning.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. Strongest winds
  near the Lake Erie shore.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may
  result. Travel may be difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-271645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.201228T0900Z-201228T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw
344 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and 
  Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may
  result. Travel may be difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
7 follow-up statements
779 
WWUS71 KBUF 271615
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1115 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

NYZ019-085-280015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.201228T0200Z-201228T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
1115 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph tonight,
  becoming southwest Monday morning.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Be
  sure your holiday decorations are secure. Tree limbs could be 
  blown down and a few power outages may result. Travel may be 
  difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-280015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.201228T0900Z-201228T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw
1115 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and 
  Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Be
  sure your holiday decorations are secure. Tree limbs could be 
  blown down and a few power outages may result. Travel may be 
  difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
469 
WWUS71 KBUF 271951
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
251 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

NYZ019-085-280400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.201228T0200Z-201228T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
251 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  tonight, becoming southwest Monday morning.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Be 
  sure your holiday decorations are secure. Tree limbs could be 
  blown down and a few power outages may result. Travel may be 
  difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-280400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.201228T0900Z-201228T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw
251 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and 
  Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Be 
  sure your holiday decorations are secure. Tree limbs could be 
  blown down and a few power outages may result. Travel may be 
  difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
247 
WWUS71 KBUF 280234
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
934 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

NYZ019-085-281045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201228T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
934 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  tonight, becoming southwest Monday morning.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Be 
  sure your holiday decorations are secure. Tree limbs could be 
  blown down and a few power outages may result. Travel may be 
  difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-281045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.201228T0900Z-201228T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw
934 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and 
  Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Be 
  sure your holiday decorations are secure. Tree limbs could be 
  blown down and a few power outages may result. Travel may be 
  difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
485 
WWUS71 KBUF 280842
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
342 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2020

NYZ019-085-281645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201228T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
342 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. Highest wind
  gusts near Lake Erie.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. Strongest wind gusts
  expected mid to late morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Be
  sure your holiday decorations are secure. Tree limbs could be
  blown down and a few isolated power outages may result. Travel 
  may be difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-281645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.201228T0900Z-201228T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw
342 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and 
  Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. Strongest wind gusts
  expected mid to late morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Be
  sure your holiday decorations are secure. Tree limbs could be
  blown down and a few isolated power outages may result. Travel 
  may be difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
044 
WWUS71 KBUF 281426
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
926 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2020

NYZ019-085-282100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201228T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
926 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Be 
  sure your holiday decorations are secure. Tree limbs could be 
  blown down and a few isolated power outages may result. Travel 
  may be difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-282100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201228T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw
926 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and 
  Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Be 
  sure your holiday decorations are secure. Tree limbs could be 
  blown down and a few isolated power outages may result. Travel 
  may be difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
JLA
752 
WWUS71 KBUF 281745
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1245 PM EST Mon Dec 28 2020

NYZ001-010-019-085-281845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201228T2100Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
1245 PM EST Mon Dec 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

NYZ002-003-011-012-282100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201228T2100Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, and Warsaw
1245 PM EST Mon Dec 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, and Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Be 
  sure your holiday decorations are secure. Tree limbs could be 
  blown down and a few isolated power outages may result. Travel 
  may be difficult in high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
JLA
705 
WWUS71 KBUF 281930
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
230 PM EST Mon Dec 28 2020

NYZ002-003-011-012-282030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201228T2100Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, and Warsaw
230 PM EST Mon Dec 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

JLA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Dec 27, 12:53 AM EST, 2 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 27, 12:53 AM EST, 2 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1253 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A band of heavy lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Ontario
through overnight before quickly weakening Sunday morning. Travel
will be extremely difficult within this band of heavy snow. The Lake
Erie lake effect is now much weaker, with light accumulations east
of the lake overnight. Low pressure will then move through the Great
Lakes Monday, with windy and somewhat warmer conditions along with a
few rain and wet snow showers. Colder air will move back into the
eastern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday, with lake effect snow
developing southeast of the lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A sharp mid level trough will lift across Quebec tonight, maintaining
a cold cyclonic flow across the eastern Great Lakes and supporting a
favorable synoptic setup for heavy lake effect snow east of Lake
Ontario. Lake induced equilibrium levels are running 8-10K feet,
with a favorably deep and moist mixed phase layer beneath the
inversion supporting dendritic crystal growth/higher SLRs and
fluffier snow.

Off Lake Erie...

Lake snows have weakened dramatically as inversion heights lower and
shear increases over the lake. A broad area of light snow is now
found from the Buffalo southtowns down through the Southern Tier and
extending east towards the Genesee Valley. Accumulations through the
rest of the night will be limited to an inch or so. With that in
mind, we have dropped the lake effect snow warning. What little
remains of the band will lift north across the Buffalo Metro early
Sunday morning with little accumulation.

Off Lake Ontario...

Intense band of lake effect snow still ongoing impacting mainly
northern Oswego County centered on Pulaski. This band has reached
its southernmost point, and will begin to drift north again
overnight towards the Oswego/Jefferson County border, and extending
into far western Lewis County. Snowfall rates will continue at 2 -3
inches per hour in the heaviest portion of the band through much of
the night.

Additional accumulations of 7 to 14 inches are expected through
Sunday morning across northern Oswego, far southern Jefferson, and
far western Lewis County.

The lake snow will rapidly weaken and move north across Jefferson
County from late Sunday morning through early afternoon as boundary
layer flow backs and inversion heights quickly lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night a Pacific based shortwave will be crossing through the
Great Lakes region. This shortwave will deepen a surface low a few
millibars as it takes a classic high wind track to the west and
north of the Lower Lakes. This feature will bring in mainly light
rain showers, with potential for a little higher elevation snow.
Precipitation will arrive the second half of Sunday night, with the
wave carrying precipitation through the region the first half of
Monday. Greatest QPF will likely be near the Lakes.

Additionally the deepening surface low will cause higher wind gusts,
especially near the Lakes. Winds potentially to advisory levels (46
mph or greater) are possible, especially to the east and northeast
of Lake Erie. A second, Canadian based shortwave, will pass across
the Lower Lakes Monday and Monday night. This feature will continue
the precipitation chances, but also drop a more colder airmass
across our region with 850 hPa temperatures dropping to the mid
negative teens Celsius. This will transition lingering rain showers
Monday afternoon over to all snow by Monday night. As equilibrium
levels rise to near 10K feet bands of lake effect snow are likely
within a west to northwest flow. There is still a question to
upstream lake connections, but if this does come to fruition, then
advisory level snows are possible to the southeast of the Lakes,
especially southeast of Lake Ontario Monday night and Tuesday.

High pressure will then push towards our region, ending lake effect
snow Tuesday evening off Lake Ontario and allowing for a quieter
period, albeit a brief quiet period. Highs Wednesday will likely be
10F degrees higher than Tuesday as a southerly flow ensues.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A similar pattern is setting up for the New Year holidays, but with
subtle difference from this past Christmas event.

Phasing of the northern and southern stream jets Thursday will
develop a surface low over the Southeast. Within this deep
meridional flow a mild day with developing rain is expected for
Thursday and Thursday night, with a cold front and heavy rain
crossing our region in the vicinity of Friday. Behind the cold front
colder air will generate lake effect snow Friday night and into
Saturday.

There are still some model differences as to the progression of the
colder air...and the possible development of a surface low along the
front that would delay the onset of the colder air/lake snows. The
12Z ECMWF takes a deepening surface wave by to our west, while the
12Z GFS takes a surface wave by to our east on Friday. The Canadian
model weakly develops a wave along the cold front.

Regardless, all models are not quite as cold with this next event as
this current event. The temperatures at 850 hPa next weekend will
likely be in the -6 to -10C range...or several degrees warmer than
this current event where 850 hPa temperatures have dropped to about -
12C. As a result with weaker instability and lapse rates, and not as
deep low level moisture, lake snows will likely be weaker in nature
for the start of the new year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A band of heavy lake effect snow will continue through early this
morning east of Lake Ontario well south of KART. VLIFR conditions
will continue within this band with VSBY of 1/4 mile or less. The
lake effect snow will then move quickly northward this morning and
cross KART, but will weaken considerably as it does so. Expect a few
hours of IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS at KART mid to late morning. Off
Lake Erie, the lake effect snow has weakened considerably, with a
broad area of light snow east of the lake with MVFR and local IFR
VSBY. This band will move north across KBUF through early to mid
morning with light snow. Otherwise the rest of the area will see VFR
to MVFR CIGS through the morning with a few flurries.

VFR will return during the midday and afternoon as the low clouds
scatter out, to be replaced by thickening high cirrus. Low pressure
will move across Michigan tonight, reaching Georgian Bay by early
Monday morning. Southerly winds will increase overnight, then become
southwest and increase further toward Monday morning. Rain and wet
snow showers will develop from west to east late tonight, with snow
favored at higher elevations and rain at lower elevations. CIGS will
deteriorate to MVFR late tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Mainly VFR. A chance of rain/snow late. LLWS
possible.
Monday...MVFR/IFR with rain/snow showers.
Monday night and Tuesday...Local IFR in lake effect snow
showers east and then southeast of the lakes, otherwise VFR.
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with rain possible. LLWS possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will gradually diminish through tonight as the pressure
gradient relaxes on the eastern Great Lakes. There will be a
brief period of lighter winds on Sunday, followed by another
period of solid Small Craft Advisory conditions at the least
Sunday night through Tuesday, with some potential for a low end
gale on both lakes as low pressure passes by just to the north
and increases the gradient again across the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JLA/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JLA/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/JLA/TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 27, 12:31 AM EST, 3 hours 13 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1231 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085-280545-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
1231 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong winds are possible Monday with gusts over 40 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-280545-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1231 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Gale force winds are possible late Sunday night and Monday on Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-280545-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
1231 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021-280545-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
1231 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 26, 10:29 PM EST, 5 hours 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1029 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020

NYZ006-008-270515-
Oswego-Lewis-
1029 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS AND
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...

At 1020 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of at least 1 to 2 inches per hour was located from Pulaski to
Constableville on the northern end and from Mexico to West Leyden on
the southern end. This band will remain nearly stationary or
oscillate a little to the south through midnight.

Winds up to 30 mph are possible with this band of lake effect snow
which will create blowing and drifting to the snow. A rumble of
thunder is possible within the most intense portions of the snowband.

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly under the more focused band of
snow with visibilities under a quarter of a mile at times. Travel
will be very difficult with deep snow covered roads. This includes
Interstate 81 between exits 33 and 37. Other routes impacted include
Route 3 between Mexico and Pulaski and Route 13 between Pulaski and
Williamstown.

Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Pulaski, Redfield, Selkirk
Shores State Park, Highmarket, Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile
Point, Scriba, Richland, New Haven, Mexico, Williamstown, Orwell,
Sandy Creek, Lacona, Parish, Altmar, Constableville and Osceola.

LAT...LON 4342 7553 4348 7581 4337 7587 4345 7659
      4349 7657 4356 7645 4356 7628 4367 7626
      4362 7542 4347 7542

TMA
Special weather statement, Dec 27, 12:15 AM EST, 3 hours 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1215 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

NYZ006>008-270645-
Jefferson-Oswego-Lewis-
1215 AM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON...
SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...

At 1210 AM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of at least 1 to 2 inches per hour was located between Palermo on
the southern edge to around Sandy Creek on the northern edge. This
band will start to shift ever so slowly northward during the early
overnight hours.

Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Pulaski, Redfield, Selkirk
Shores State Park, Highmarket, Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile
Point, Whetstone Gulf State Park, Southwick Beach State Park,
Hastings, Scriba, Richland, Palermo, New Haven, Minetto, Mexico,
Williamstown, Orwell and Sandy Creek.

 This includes Interstate 81 between exits 33 and 40.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations.
Visibilities will drop rapidly to under a quarter of a mile within
the heart of the band. Be prepared for snow or ice covered roads.
Slow down and allow extra time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4346 7544 4342 7554 4348 7581 4333 7589
      4332 7586 4325 7587 4344 7666 4356 7645
      4357 7628 4369 7626 4377 7628 4371 7539

Mitchell
Local storm report, Dec 27, 12:36 AM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1236 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     SNOW             2 N CLARENCE            43.00N 78.58W
12/26/2020  M17.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR 12/26/20.

0820 PM     SNOW             3 SW NATURAL BRIDGE     44.04N 75.54W
12/26/2020  E16.0 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 PM     SNOW             PULASKI                 43.57N 76.13W
12/26/2020  M7.0 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   PUBLIC

1050 PM     SNOW             2 N RICHLAND            43.60N 76.05W
12/26/2020  M6.5 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL AMOUNT FROM 3:30 PM TO 10:30 PM.

&&

JM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 26, 8:50 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFOswego85 min
Dec 26, 10:29 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFOswego106 min
Dec 27, 12:15 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFOswego90 min
Dec 27, 3:47 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF63 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in New York, 2020Every wind advisory in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.