Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
241 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled pattern through Thursday as an upper level low pressure
system to the north tracks away from the region. Dry weather Friday
into Saturday afternoon before the next chance for rain moves into
the area Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Earlier scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from this
morning have transitioned to scattered stronger storms early this
afternoon in area that was not impacted by the morning convection.
SPC mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPES have risen to 1000-1500j/kg into
SW NYS which complements deep layer shear to 40 kts to support
additional strong to severe storms through mid to late afternoon
especially across the Southern Tier. Will also have to watch
lake breeze boundary over Niagara county for development as may
see additional storms form there as that area has been in the
clear for a while and is beginning to destabilize. Thus far, cu
development there is muted compared to the Southern Tier
though.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be with us through at
least early evening as a shortwave trough and associated cold front
begin to approach and eventually cross the region.

Shower activity will continue tonight as the cold front finishes
crossing the region and sufficieint low level moisture, combined
with cooling H85 temps to around 12C will help to initiate a weak
lake response. Low temperatures tonight will fall to the low to mid
60s.

Thursday, the potential for scattered showers will continue as the
trough axis moves through the area. With H85 temps still around 12C
for the day, a lake response will still be possible downwind of both
lakes as well especially in the morning. Instability will be cut
down compared to today though, so only will have a slight chance of
thunder. Temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
One last frontal boundary crosses Thursday night. Still looks cold
enough in N to NE flow behind the front to have another small lake
response (sprinkles or light showers) along the south shore of Lake
Ontario. At the least will have scattered to broken cloud cover into
Friday with the cooler flow off Lake Ontario.

Sfc high pressure with confluent upper flow will finally support
fair dry weather later Friday into Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of this period there will be two positively tilted
upper level troughs; one axis lying across the southeastern Plains
and the other across the northern Manitoba and Ontario boarder.
Throughout the period, these two troughs will merge and elongate
into the deep southeast before lifting northeast by the middle of
next week.

Translating the previously described upper air pattern down to the
surface, a bubble of high pressure will reside across the region
keeping the majority of the day dry however, two surface features
are worth noting as they will end up being the main players for the
middle portions of the forecast period. First, is a low pressure
system in the central Mississippi Valley and second, a surface cold
front lying across Minnesota and Ontario. The low pressure system
will work its way northeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday, with
its warm frontal boundary arriving to the New York/Pennsylvania
boarder late in the day Saturday/Saturday night which will increase
the chance for showers throughout Saturday night. The surface low
will then cross both Lake Erie and Ontario Sunday supporting the
likelihood for showers and thunderstorms. As the low departs to the
northeast, the aforementioned cold front will then cross the area
Sunday night through Monday which will continue the chances for
showers and thunderstorms. As the cold front exits to the east,
chances for showers will diminish from west to east throughout the
day on Tuesday.

For the Tuesday night through Wednesday timeframe, the model
guidances have discrepancies regarding the upper level pattern. Both
the ECMWF and Canadian model develop a closed low over Ontario which
will keep the possibilities for showers in the forecast. The GFS on
the other hand does not have the development of the closed low which
will be the drier solution to the forecast. Due to the model
disagreements and the uncertainty as to what will play out, kept
slight chances for showers across the forecast area for Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

Temperatures will have a slight cooling trend throughout this
period. The start of the period will have highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s Saturday, and cool off to highs in the mid to upper 70s with
a few places reaching 80 by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during
the afternoon as a shortwave trough and cold front approaches from
the west. As of early afternoon, appears JHW, BUF and IAG will have
best chance of seeing additional thunderstorms. Conditions will be
primarily VFR, but brief periods of MVFR to IFR will occur during
any heavier showers or thunderstorms.

Mainly VFR conditions rest of tonight through Thursday with a few
showers possible.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers
especially closer to south shore of Lake Ontario. River valley fog
possible across the Western Southern Tier early each morning.
Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes tonight.
Freshening southwest winds on Lake Erie for a few hours ahead of the
front will continue to support marginal Small Craft Advisories.
Winds are expected to be a bit lighter on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ020-
         040-041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JLA/SW
NEAR TERM...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JLA/SW
MARINE...JLA/SW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
127 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-301730-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
127 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong storms are expected across the region this
afternoon into early this evening. An isolated severe thunderstorm
with damaging winds cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-301730-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
127 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong storms are possible across the region this afternoon
into early this evening. An isolated severe thunderstorm with damaging
winds cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1226 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

NYZ013-014-291700-
Ontario-Livingston-
1226 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL LIVINGSTON AND
CENTRAL ONTARIO COUNTIES...

At 1225 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Honeoye, or 14
miles east of Geneseo, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Conesus, Bristol, Rushville, Honeoye, Hemlock, Gorham, Canadice,
Cheshire, Cottage City, Bristol Mountain and Hall.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4272 7774 4288 7757 4285 7698 4284 7697
      4276 7698 4276 7731 4271 7735 4265 7737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 274DEG 38KT 4275 7753

Fries

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
109 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

NYZ012-013-021-291745-
Allegany-Livingston-Wyoming-
109 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...
SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON AND NORTHEASTERN ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

At 109 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Letchworth State
Park to near Portageville. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dansville, Letchworth State Park, Portageville, Nunda, Pike, Ossian,
Canaseraga, Rossburg, Hunt, Dalton, Ossian Center and Swain.

This includes Interstate 390 between exits 4 and 5.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4248 7812 4256 7822 4265 7786 4260 7749
      4258 7749 4258 7766 4253 7766 4253 7772
      4246 7772 4244 7773
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 278DEG 32KT 4258 7787 4255 7807

Fries

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHAUTAUQUA              42.21N  79.47W
07/29/2020                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE AND WIRE FELL ON HOUSE ALONG STATE ROUTE 394.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF2000921

JLA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
213 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

NYZ010-019-020-085-291845-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-Northern Erie-
213 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS...
SOUTHWESTERN ERIE AND NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES...

At 212 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Silver Creek,
or 8 miles northeast of Dunkirk, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Seneca, Lackawanna, Hamburg, Evans, Boston, Eden, Colden,
Orchard Park, Silver Creek, Blasdell, Angola, North Collins, Derby,
Evangola State Park, Angola on the Lake, Woodlawn Beach State Park,
North Boston, Sheridan, Forestville and Farnham.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 58 and 56.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If you are on or near Lake Erie, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4257 7927 4259 7919 4264 7916 4267 7912
      4269 7910 4282 7879 4257 7864 4246 7926
      4254 7933
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 245DEG 34KT 4254 7918

Fries

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
248 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SINCLAIRVILLE           42.26N  79.26W
07/29/2020                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN.

0216 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHERRY CREEK            42.29N  79.10W
07/29/2020                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE WITH WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF2000922
EVENT NUMBER BUF2000923

EAJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

NYZ010>013-085-291945-
Livingston-Southern Erie-Wyoming-Genesee-Northern Erie-
253 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WYOMING...SOUTHEASTERN
ERIE...NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON AND SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 253 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Blasdell to near East Concord.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
West Seneca, Lackawanna, Batavia, Hamburg, Geneseo, East Aurora,
Darien Lakes State Park, Letchworth State Park, Elma, Boston,
Marilla, Le Roy, Springville, Perry, Warsaw, Bennington, Colden,
Orchard Park, Mount Morris and Alden.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 390 between exits 6 and 7.
 Interstate 90 between exits 57 and 55.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4304 7800 4267 7774 4250 7872 4281 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 251DEG 40KT 4276 7883 4254 7869

Fries