Special Marine Warning 86, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
219 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will last through Tuesday with chances of
showers and thunderstorms. A brief cool down is likely on Wednesday
before summer's warmth returns to end the week along with renewed
chances for showers and thunderstorms. A sharp cooldown is then
expected for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Regional radar show showers and thunderstorms on lake breezes across
the Niagara Frontier and north of Lake Ontario into the Saint
Lawrence River this afternoon. Showers have also formed due to
terrain circulations across the Southern Tier. Surface heating
and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s has led to surface
based instability around 2k J/kg. Flow in the mid-levels remains
weak with shear around 15 kts across Western and North Central
NY. While lake breeze convergence and terrain circulations
intiate new cell development, coverage and severty is low due to
the weak wind field across the region. Heavy downpours, gusty
winds and lightning are still expected with these storms.
Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s today.

A shortwave trough over northern Ontario will track east tonight. A
cold front extends from Northeastern Ontario to southern Minnesota
this afternoon and will track east and across the western and
central Great Lakes overnight. The low to mid level wind fields will
strengh across the Great Lakes basin tonight. Model guidance depicts
an embedded shortwave trough moving across southern Ontario while
the cold front tracks east at the surface. These features and a
strengthening wind field will promote the development of showers and
thunderstorms near Lake Ontario late tonight. These would then track
southeast across the region. Dewpoints across the eastern Great
Lakes will remain in the upper 60s to low 70 and elevated
instability will be present.

The front will be near Lake Erie and and Lake Ontario Tuesday
morning. There will likely be a break in activity Tuesday morning
while the front moves south into the forecast area. New development
of showers and thunderstorms will occur mid to late morning ahead of
the front, mainly across the western Southern Tier and western
Finger Lakes and the southern Tug Hill region. Modest instability
and a strong wind field will allow some storms to become strong to
severe however they will be quick to move south and eventually out
of the forecast area by 2 PM. Northwest winds will move in behind
the front and stabilize the region. Breezy conditions expected
Tuesday afternoon with northwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Highs will
reacht the upper 70s across the higher terrain and east of Lake
Ontario to the low 80s across the western NY lake plains.

A long wave trough moves south into the Northeast Tuesday night.
Cool and drier weather moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Some hi-
res guidance showers a few showers overnight

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and cooler conditions will be short-lived on Wednesday as cold
advection and northwesterly flow quickly turn neutral and then warm
Wednesday night into Thursday as a warm front surges back
northeastward through the area. This will allow for PWATs to surge
upward significantly while 850 hPa temperatures run up toward +18C
again. The net result will be a near tropical feel to the
environment over the area by that juncture.

A wave along the front that lifts north of the area will allow the
boundary to sag back southward on Thursday night and Friday. With a
near W-E orientation of this front across the area, this seems
likely to yield a very unsettled and wet interlude for the CWA.
Model guidance suggests continuous instability along this boundary,
low level convergence, and ample moisture feed. Thus, this could
finally be an extended period of rainfall potential for the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The end of the week looks to be a continuation of tropical rainfall
across the area. Moisture associated with the remnants of Laura may
be drawn up into the frontal boundary that will still be laid out
across the area. This would yield a near unabated continuation of
solid rainfall across the bulk of the area that looks to extend at
least into Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, the long wave pattern looks to start to change
across the eastern CONUS. What has been a very warm period will
gradually be replaced by troughing in the upper levels. This will
result in cooler and drier Canadian air slipping into the
northeastern US for a few days. As a result, the forecast trends
decidedly drier and below normal in the temperature department.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms have formed along lake breezes across
the Niagara Frontier and north of Lake Ontario into the Saint
Lawrence River. A few thunderstorms moved through KIAG earlier
and have since moved east. A few storms may reach KROC by 20z. A
brief period of MVFR/IFR expected in TS. Activity will wane
into the evening hours. Another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms will move through the region between 06-12z. This
may bring a brief period of MVFR/IFR in showers or
thunderstorms.

A cold front will move through the terminals Tuesday morning.
Winds will come around to the northwest and continue through the
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across
the western Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes Tuesday
morning. A brief period of MVFR/IFR is possible at KJHW.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible late day
western NY, then all areas overnight.
Thursday and Friday...VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest to west winds will continue into Tuesday ahead of a cold
front. Winds shift to the north and northeast Tuesday night into
Wednesday behind the front. Conditions will become choppy on the
eastern ends of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario later today into Tuesday
then along the south shore of Lake Ontario Tuesday night into
Wednesday, but winds and waves look to stay below small craft
advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...Fries
LONG TERM...Fries
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JLA

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