Special Marine Warning 19, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
513 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will generally support fair weather tonight
through much of Friday. A cold front will allow for some unsettled
weather Friday and Friday night...then fair weather will return
during the weekend through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure will support fair weather for most areas through
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure will remain overhead Thursday night before being
pushed east out of the region by the next frontal system late
Friday. That being said, Thursday night through the first half of
Friday will be dry with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows
Thursday night will drop down into the upper 50s in the North
Country, whereas the remainder of the region will see low to mid 60s.

A weak midlevel trough and surface cold front will slide through the
central Great Lakes and Southern Ontario throughout the day on
Friday, before developing stronger synoptic support and reaching New
York Friday night. That being said, Friday is expected to be
primarily dry with the slight chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms forming on the mesoscale boundaries forming off of the
lakes. 850 mb temperatures are alluding to near +15C temperatures
overhead, which will support highs to climb up into the low to mid
80s.

The aforementioned to midlevel trough and associated surface cold
front will pass through the region Friday night and Saturday
morning. As the front passes through, expect scattered showers and
storms due to the lack of atmospheric forcing available at this
time. Throughout the day on Saturday, the midlevel trough will
continue to push east and begin to dig as is encroaches into New
England. While the trough will be digging and thus steepening the
midlevel lapse rates, the potential for thunderstorms will have
ended due to the passage of the front, therefore expect showers
throughout the day on Saturday. Also, due to the cold frontal
passage, cold air advection will act to hinder the warm highs like
the day before, expect highs to be in the 70s.

Shower coverage will gradually end from west to east throughout
Saturday evening and night as the midlevel trough moves further east
into New England. As stated previously, the cold air advection
scheme will keep things on the cooler side. Highs will drop into the
low to mid 50s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A stretch of dry weather will develop through the first half of next
week as a strong mid/upper level ridge moves from the central US
into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This will provide dry weather
Sunday through Tuesday. As the ridge moves toward the coast a
southerly flow of warmer and wetter (including the remnants of
Cristobal) air begins to overspread the region Wednesday.

Temperatures will be quite cool on Sunday with highs in the mid to
upper 60s and lows in the mid to upper 40s. High temperatures warm
to the low 70s on Monday and into the upper 70s to low 80s on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak high pressure moving across the region tonight and Thursday
will maintain VFR conditions for most areas. The only issue will be
some light fog that reduce vsbys to MVFR levels in some areas late
tonight. IFR vsbys may develop across parts of the Southern Tier
between 8 and 12z.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...VFR.
Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. A few showers possible.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
While fresh southwesterlies will keep choppy conditions in place on
Lake Erie early this evening...weak high pressure moving across the
Lower Great Lakes will support generally light winds and negligible
waves tonight through Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...Levan
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1008 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

NYZ007-008-019>021-041400-
Jefferson-Lewis-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
1008 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There's a small risk that a few thunderstorms will produce strong gusty
winds this afternoon. Any damage would be isolated in nature.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>006-010>014-085-041400-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Southern Erie-
1008 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-041400-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1008 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-041400-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1008 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There's a small risk that a few thunderstorms will produce strong gusty
winds this afternoon. Any damage would be isolated in nature.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
406 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

NYZ012>014-032030-
Ontario-Livingston-Wyoming-
406 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHERN
LIVINGSTON AND SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO COUNTIES...

At 403 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located over northern
Wyoming County, moving southeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms. Very heavy
rainfall is occurring with these storms as well. Rainfall amounts of
an inch to inch and a half in 30 minutes are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dansville, Letchworth State Park, Perry, Warsaw, Mount Morris,
Conesus, Naples, Varysburg, Groveland, Springwater, Sheldon, Nunda,
Castile, Ossian, Silver Springs, Leicester, Wyoming, Gainesville,
Hermitage and Ossian Center.

This includes Interstate 390 between exits 4 and 7.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4251 7784 4252 7784 4252 7786 4273 7846
      4287 7820 4264 7737 4258 7737 4258 7766
      4253 7766 4253 7772 4247 7772 4247 7773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 294DEG 43KT 4272 7806

Mitchell