Small Craft Advisory 54, NWS Buffalo, NY

880 
WHUS71 KBUF 180219
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1019 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

LOZ042-181030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.200518T0600Z-200519T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1019 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO
2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 2 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-181030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.200518T0900Z-200519T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1019 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO
11 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

119 
WHUS71 KBUF 180557
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
157 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

LOZ042-181400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.200518T0600Z-200519T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
157 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-181400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.200518T0900Z-200519T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
157 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 5 AM early this morning to 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

598 
WHUS71 KBUF 180830
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
430 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

LOZ042-181630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
430 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-181630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.200518T0900Z-200519T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
430 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

316 
WHUS71 KBUF 181105
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
705 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

LOZ042-181215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
705 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-181215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
705 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

831 
WHUS71 KBUF 181146
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
746 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

LOZ042-182100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
746 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-182100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
746 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
JLA

312 
WHUS71 KBUF 182046
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
446 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

LOZ042-190500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
446 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-190500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
446 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

373 
WHUS71 KBUF 190230
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1030 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

LOZ042-191030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1030 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-191030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1030 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

806 
WHUS71 KBUF 190838
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
438 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

LOZ042-191645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
438 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-191500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
438 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

536 
WHUS71 KBUF 191448
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1048 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

LEZ040-200000-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200520T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
1048 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Dunkirk.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-200000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200520T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1048 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-192100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1048 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
JLA

170 
WHUS71 KBUF 191757
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
157 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

LOZ043-191900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200519T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
157 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LOZ042-200300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200520T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
157 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-200300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200520T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
157 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Dunkirk.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
JLA

127 
WHUS71 KBUF 200154
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
954 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

LEZ040-LOZ042-200300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-200520T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
954 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves will continue to subside overnight.

$$

Hitchcock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1132 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will grudgingly give way to a warm front that
slowly pushes toward our region into tonight. Scattered showers will
become more widespread late today, then periods of moderate rain are
expected tonight through Monday, with the most rain occurring from
southern Erie and Wyoming counties into the Niagara Frontier.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Canadian high pressure will give way to warm air advection ahead of
sfc warm front across the Ohio Valley. A few light showers already
developing over the Southern Tier, but these likely diminish as they
push into the dry air tied to the high pressure ridge this afternoon.
Better coverage of showers develops by late afternoon as H85 warm
front lifts across our region. Looks like other than the late day
showers, a nice day will occur for most with highs well into the 60s
and even near 70F away from northern Niagara Frontier.

By tonight, this boundary aloft will be across the Niagara Frontier
while anomalous high PWATS and sw LLJ +1-2SD arrive. Low-level
convergence will increase in the background of larger scale
right entrance divergence aloft from upper jet over Quebec.
Meanwhile, convection upstream over the Ohio Valley where SPC
has marginal/slight risk of severe will lift toward lower Great
Lakes before weakening as it outpaces upstream instability.
Overall the models are kind of back on somewhat in favoring at
least moderate rain developing through the night across the
Niagara Frontier. Consensus of recent modeled QPF along with
using max and mean QPF guidance from HREF suggests most areas
see an inch of rain with embedded pockets of 1.5-2.0 inches
possible given the dynamic setup and as dying convection rains
out over our area. Nudged QPF back upward tonight and also added
small chances for thunder along the Lake Erie shoreline
including the Buffalo Metro.

Widespread rain should start to taper off on Monday first in the
Southern Tier and North Country and last across Niagara Frontier,
though it may take until afternoon as differential convergence
finally weakens as upper low diving across the Ohio Valley becomes
primary focus for rain and as upper jet shifts far enough east to
not become a factor. Pops through Monday looked good and made few
changes as they had expected trends well covered.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Confidence is fairly high in a continued, and significant trend
westward in the track of vertically stacked storm system that
appeared just a few days ago, would impact our area with potentially
significant additional rainfall during this period. This is good
news for us here in western and north central NY. Models
traditionally have a very difficult time handling cut-off lows,
especially in the longer term, and this case was no different. In
terms of sensible weather, this translates to only light amounts of
QPF now expected across areas south of Lake Ontario Monday night, as
the axis of heavier rain shifts west of our area. Dry weather will
then return area wide for the remainder of the period.

Stacked low will drop south across the Tennessee Valley Monday
night, where it will meander about through much of the week. As was
implied above, after some possible lingering showers across western
NY Monday night, a strong 1036MB Canadian high pressure centered
over central Quebec will build south across eastern NY and New
England by late Tuesday night. This feature, along with amplifying
upper level ridge over the center of the U.S., will help drive low
pressure further to the southwest of the area. In addition, the
further track to the west will also mitigate any entrainment of
supplemental moisture from the much talked about (sub)tropical
system (Arthur) moving north along the East Coast, as it will force
the storm eastward further out into the western Atlantic after it
reaches somewhere near the North Carolina/Mid Atlantic coastline
Monday night. Dry, cool conditions can then be expected Tuesday and
Tuesday night as high pressure takes control.

Otherwise, lingering cloud cover and cool east to east-northeasterly
flow will keep temperatures some 5-10 degrees below average, however
this is a trend in the right direction from previous forecasts as
highs should make it into the lower and mid 60s under strong mid May
insolation. Warmest temperatures may actually be toward the Saint
Lawrence Valley, as cloud cover slowly decreases from northeast to
southwest through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong surface high pressure will drift south across New England,
then off the coast of southern New England through the mid week
timeframe, while axis of upper ridge remains overhead. This will
keep dry weather intact through at least Thursday. 17/00Z GFS has
now also backed off on any precip chances moving in from the south
during this time, so confidence continues to grow for rain free
conditions. High temperatures in the lower to mid 60s Wednesday will
increase a bit for Thursday, with highs mainly in the mid to upper
60s, to near 70 in some spots. These temperatures could end up being
even a bit warmer if the trend toward more sunshine continues,
especially further north.

A large upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will push into
the northern Rockies toward the end of the work week. This will
deamplify the central CONUS ridge somewhat and finally start to kick
out the stalled upper low over the Tennessee Valley/southern
Appalachians region that has been nearly stationary for much of the
work week. The upper low will weaken/start to open up as it makes a
move east-northeast through the Ohio Valley on Friday, then off the
coast of the Delmarva by late Saturday. Meanwhile, another area of
high pressure over central Quebec will be trying to nose southward
across the Northeast. This will place our area right in the battle
zone between these two features. The trend during this timeframe is
for a more southerly track with the upper and surface low. That
said, confidence during this time remains fairly low, however will
keep dry weather in across the North Country, with PoPs increasing
toward low chance as you near the NY/PA line for Friday and the
start of the weekend. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to be
quite pleasant with mainly upper 60s to low 70s, and the highest
readings possibly again found toward the Saint Lawrence Valley where
dry weather is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place through at least midday...although
our cirrus cloud cover will lower and thicken in the process. The
lowering cigs will yield some showers over the western counties...
especially during the afternoon when there could be some steady rain
over the Southern Tier and IAG Frontier by late this afternoon. MVFR
cigs will be found across the former by 18z...with IFR cigs towards
evening.

Cigs will continue to deteriorate to IFR levels across most of
western New York tonight and will be accompanied by fairly
widespread rain. Meanwhile cigs will lower to MVFR levels east of
Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Monday...MVFR/IFR cigs with rain.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure centered over northern Quebec will generate an east to
northeast flow across the Lower Great Lakes. Winds will freshen
somewhat during the course of the day...and this will result in some
choppy conditions at times west of Sodus Bay on Lake Ontario and on
Lake Erie south of Dunkirk.

Moderate to fresh northeasterlies across the region tonight will
keep choppy conditions in place for the western two thirds of Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie south of Dunkirk...possibly supporting the
need for a small craft advisory.

There is a higher probability that a SCA will be needed for western
lake Ontario on Monday because of the long duration of the fresh
northeasterlies.

Looking further ahead...weaker winds and less wave action are
anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday...courtesy of high pressure
that is forecast to build back across the region from coastal New
England.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There still is the potential for a soaking rain tonight through
Monday, but latest model guidance suggests that the risk for
flooding continues to remain on the lower side. In addition, low
pressure will now pass further southwest of the region Monday night
and Tuesday, which has shifted the axis of heavier rain Monday
into Tuesday to the west of our area.

At this point, total QPF amounts for the event are forecast to
be highest across the Niagara Frontier, along with Southern Erie
and Wyoming counties. Here is a break down of expected QPF
amounts for the entire event:

- 1.25-1.75" across the Niagara Frontier, along with Southern  Erie
and Wyoming counties, with isolated amounts of over 2.00" possible
- 0.75-1.25" for the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes region
east to Oswego County
- 0.25-0.50" for the North Country and toward the NY/PA line

With this in mind, the only locations that still appear to have the
chance for any areal/flooding concerns would be across the Niagara
Frontier/S. Erie and Wyoming counties. As far as creek/river
flooding concerns, this would be confined mainly to the Buffalo
Creeks basins and possibly the Rochester area creeks. Overall
though the chance still looks on the low side.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JLA/RSH
NEAR TERM...JLA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JLA/RSH
HYDROLOGY...JLA/JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
123 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

NYZ001-010-019-085-181730-
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
123 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers late today will become more widespread tonight. There will be
periods of moderate to potentially heavy rain along with a few rumbles
of thunder tonight. Localized ponding of water is likely in low-
lying and poor drainage areas. Depending on where the heaviest rain
occurs, some streams and creeks over western New York could see
significant rises.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional moderate rainfall is possible on Monday. The rain will
gradually diminish then end by late afternoon. Localized ponding of
water will remain likely in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Depending on where the heaviest rain occurs, some streams and creeks
over western New York could rise to around bankfull.

Some rivers, creeks and streams may continue to run high through the
middle of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002>008-011>014-020-021-181730-
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Genesee-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
123 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers late this afternoon will become more widespread tonight.
There will be periods of moderate to potentially heavy rain tonight.
Localized ponding of water is likely in low-lying and poor drainage
areas. Depending on where the heaviest rain occurs, streams and
creeks could see some rises.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Rain on Monday will gradually diminish then end in the afternoon.
Localized ponding of water will remain likely in low-lying and poor
drainage areas. Depending on where the heaviest rain occurs, some
streams and creeks could still see some rises.

Some rivers, creeks and streams may continue to run high through the
middle of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-181730-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
123 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA