Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

812 
WHUS71 KBUF 100316
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1016 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

LEZ040-041-101130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1016 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds to 30 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-101130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T1500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1016 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-101130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T2000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1016 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds to 30 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-101130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.200110T0900Z-200110T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1016 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

758 
WHUS71 KBUF 100623
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
123 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

LEZ040-041-101430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
123 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds to 30 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-101430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T1500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
123 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-101430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.200110T0900Z-200110T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
123 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-101430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T2000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
123 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds to 30 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

325 
WHUS71 KBUF 100957
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
457 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

LEZ040-041-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0002.200112T0900Z-200112T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
457 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest 
  winds to 35 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Watch, from late Saturday night 
  through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0002.200112T1200Z-200112T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
457 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 to 20
  knots and waves up to 4 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to
  35 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 AM EST this 
  morning. For the Gale Watch, from Sunday morning through 
  Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0002.200112T1200Z-200112T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
457 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds to 30 knots 
  and waves 5 to 8 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 35 
  knots and waves 9 to 12 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 3 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Watch, from Sunday morning through 
  Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-101500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T1500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
457 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-101800-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0002.200112T1200Z-200112T2100Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
457 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

604 
WHUS71 KBUF 101435
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
935 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

LOZ042-102245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.200112T1200Z-200112T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
935 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-101545-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T1500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
935 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to diminish today.

$$

LEZ040-041-102245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.200112T0900Z-200112T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
935 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest 
  winds to 35 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Watch, from late Saturday night 
  through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-102245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T2000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.200112T1200Z-200112T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
935 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  35 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 3 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Watch, from Sunday morning through 
  Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-102245-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.200112T1200Z-200112T2100Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
935 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

229 
WHUS71 KBUF 101723
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1223 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

LOZ043>045-110130-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T2000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.200112T1200Z-200112T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1223 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-110130-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200110T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.200112T0900Z-200112T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1223 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062>065-110130-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.200112T1200Z-200112T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1223 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River, and the nearshore waters of Lake 
  Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$
Reynolds

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
215 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will exit our region and cross
New England this evening. A complex storm system will develop
over the nation's mid-section at the end of the week will
guarantee very unsettled weather for our area as we head into
the weekend. Significant rainfall is expected along with the
potential for problematic mixed precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High clouds are already on the increase across the area as cold
advection and high pressure are rapidly being replaced by warm
and moist advection aloft ahead of a massive pattern change
headed toward our region.

An axis of deep moisture is resident from the western Gulf of
Mexico into the mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes.
Attendant with this, a veritable fire hose of precipitable water
is gushing northward and will gradually arc toward the lower
Great Lakes after 06z tonight. This will quickly bring PWAT
values toward 1 inch across Lake Erie by morning and near 1
inch across most of the rest of the area through the day.
Luckily enough for us, large scale forcing is rather subdued
from tonight through Friday, so heavy precipitation seems
unlikely in the near term, however the massive change in
thermodynamic characteristics of the column will be such that
temperatures will start to increase this evening across much of
WNY and temperature rises overnight will start across the rest
of the area after midnight and toward morning. Thus, as deeper
moisture advances northeastward, many areas will vault above
freezing prior to the onset of rainfall. The exceptions to this
seem poised to be the interior Southern Tier and North Country.
These two locations well away from the lakes will be the most
likely to maintain boundary layer cold air after precipitation
onset. With wildly inverted soundings overhead, the higher
resolution guidance suggests a period of 1-3 hours of freezing
rain over Allegany and SE Cattaraugus counties, as well as a
similar period of freezing rain or even a bit of sleet in far
interior sections of Jefferson, Oswego, and Lewis counties.
After all guidance has arrived this afternoon, a decision of
advisories will be made.

Going into the daytime on Friday, the moisture train remains on
its atmospheric tracks overhead. This will mean a continuation
in PWATs as warmer air arrives. All areas will quickly change
over to all rain on Friday morning with light rain continuing
through the day. Even with the precipitation, warm advection
seems poised to make much of the Niagara Frontier take runs at
50F during the day, with all other areas at least jumping into
the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...Significant Rainfall Possible Saturday through Saturday night...

A strong southern stream trough, partially phased with the northern
stream, will move across the mid Mississippi Valley Saturday before
accelerating into New England Sunday. A strong, persistent ridge off
the southeast coast will pump abundant, deep moisture northward out
of the Gulf of Mexico and into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great
Lakes. Strong forcing from DPVA ahead of the trough, increasingly
diffluent upper level flow, and divergence in the right entrance
region of a very strong 200+ knot upper level jet will all combine
to produce an extended period of deep layer ascent. In the lower
levels, the strongest forcing will develop in a swath just north of
the low level frontal position, where frontogenesis maximizes. The
position of the front, and ribbon of frontogenesis on the cold side
of the frontal zone will provide the main focus for the axis of
heaviest precipitation.

Friday night through Saturday morning the frontal zone will focus to
the north and west of our area across southern Ontario. This will
likewise focus the steadiest, and heaviest precipitation north and
west of our area. On the NY side of the border, the rain will be
light and intermittent Friday night through Saturday morning.
Temperatures will remain very warm to the south of the boundary,
with many areas staying in the upper 40s to lower 50s through the
night. Temperatures will remain in the 50s in most areas through
Saturday morning as the boundary stays north and west of our area.

The stalled frontal boundary to our northwest will begin to shift
eastward as a cold front Saturday afternoon, eventually settling
across the region and stalling over the area by Saturday night, as a
strong low ejects out of the southern Plains and swings into the
Ohio Valley. Significant moisture transport ahead of the low as well
as strong frontogenesis along and just north of the front will aid
in the development of periods of moderate to heavy rain from
Saturday afternoon through much of Saturday night. Precipitable
water values during this time climb to over 4 standard deviations
above normal. Per SPC climatology, the 12Z GFS Buffalo sounding
showing values reaching 1.3 inches which exceeds Buffalo's January
record of 1.2 inches, showing the rarity of this amount of moisture
during the middle of winter.

Our storm total rain forecast remains very similar to continuity,
with the highest rainfall amounts exceeding 2 inches focused from
the Niagara Frontier northeast across Lake Ontario to the eastern
Lake Ontario region. This portion of the area will have the greatest
risk of flooding, both from general areal flooding of low lying
areas and also river flooding. The southeast portion of the area
from the upper Genesee Basin to the western Finger Lakes will spend
much of the time in a mid level dry slot. This will likely keep rain
totals to about an inch or less, with a lower risk of flooding in
this area.

The ever sharpening frontal zone will continue to bisect the area
most of Saturday night, with an incredible temperature gradient
setting up across the front. Areas near the PA state line will
likely remain in the 50s through Saturday night, and possibly rise
into the mid to upper 50s for a time. Meanwhile, increasing shallow
northeast flow to the north of the frontal zone will feed much
colder air into northern sections of the region as strong high
pressure builds east across Ontario and Quebec.

Areas near the Saint Lawrence River will have the best chance of
staying below freezing for an extended period of time, as the
topography of the region often allows northeast drainage winds in
the Saint Lawrence Valley. This may allow surface temperatures to
drop to the freezing mark as early as sunset Saturday, with
temperatures remaining below freezing through Sunday morning over
northern Jefferson County. There remains a good deal of model
variation from run to run on the character of the temperature
profile, including the magnitude of the warm layer aloft and depth
of the shallow cold layer. These differences give uncertainty with
regards to favoring freezing rain vs. sleet. Nonetheless, given the
pattern and expected QPF, there is a risk of significant freezing
rain accretion Saturday night across the Saint Lawrence Valley. The
axis of greatest freezing rain will likely be fairly narrow given
the sharp thermal gradient, but there is potential for this axis to
produce a damaging ice storm given the setup.

Farther west, model guidance continues to suggest low level cold air
will also penetrate into the Niagara Frontier and Rochester areas
for a time Saturday night. The GFS remains the only model showing
surface temperatures dropping enough to support freezing rain, with
NAM, GEM, and ECMWF soundings keeping temperatures several degrees
warmer. We will continue to monitor model trends closely, but for
now this looks like a rain event outside of the Saint Lawrence
Valley.

The last, strongest mid level wave will be accompanied by a
moderately deep surface low passing just north and west of the area
Sunday. Widespread precipitation will quickly taper off with the
passage of the cold front early Sunday. Model guidance has trended
stronger with this surface low, and much stronger with associated
wind fields in the post-frontal cold advection on Sunday. Given the
favorable track of the surface low, this raises the concern for a
potential high wind event northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. 12Z
NAM and GFS soundings show enough wind aloft to potentially produce
a brief period of warning criteria gusts for a few hours Sunday from
the Lake Erie shore northeast across the Niagara Frontier to
Rochester, and also in Jefferson County. Trended winds and wind
gusts much higher through this period. If the strong winds
materialize, impact would be high given the fully saturated ground
(and possibly ice in the Saint Lawrence Valley).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Monday, a weak shortwave will pass north of the region.
Model guidance continues to trend drier through early next week
from Monday through Tuesday, with temperatures continuing to
run above normal.

Later next week, the deep longwave trough which has been focused
across western North America will begin to make progress
eastward. This will allow for a return to more winter-like
weather by the end of the week, although there is a large spread
in model guidance as to the synoptic details, and exactly how
cold we become. The GFS is most agressive with the cold air by
Thursday and Friday of next week, with 850mb temps colder than
-20C. The ECMWF continues to keep the coldest air north of our
 region, while the Canadian GEM is a compromise solution. Some
 model guidance, most notably the 12Z ECMWF, suggests the
 potential for another strong wind event prior to the arrivial
 of cold air as a strong low cuts through the central Great
 Lakes. Behind this system, lake effect snow may develop east of
 the lakes by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue at all sites early this afternoon as
high clouds start to increase from the southwest. This will
remain the case through the early AM hours, after which lower
cigs and light rain will advance from the southwest. This may
start as an hour or two of freezing rain at JHW and ART. The
attendant moisture with this will be ushered in on a strong SW
low-level jet aloft, which will bring wind shear over the entire
area overnight through Friday morning as soundings remain
inverted and mixing potential remains weak.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...MVFR to IFR due to rain and eventually a
wintry mix.  LLWS.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A large surface high will exit our region via New England today.
This will encourage gentle southeasterlies this morning to freshen
during the midday and afternoon.

These winds will veer to the south and continue to strengthen
tonight. While speeds will be close to small craft advisory
criteria...the southerly flow will carry the highest wave action
into Canadian waters. Will allow the dayshift to re-examine for
possibly issuing a SCA for Lake Erie. Otherwise...the only area of
concern will be eastern Lake Ontario where near gale force gusts
will be possible over the open waters with very choppy conditions on
the nearshore waters north of Mexico Bay. This last area will
require a new small craft advisory in a later package.

Fresh south to southwest winds will then be found throughout the
region on Friday...as a slow moving frontal system will approach
from the Upper Great Lakes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch has been issued for this weekend across Western NY
and the eastern Lake Ontario region. Periods of mainly light
rain will develop Friday and continue through Saturday morning.
The rain will increase in coverage and intensity Saturday
afternoon and continue through Saturday night.

The highest rainfall totals will likely be found from the
Niagara Frontier northeast across Lake Ontario to the eastern
Lake Ontario region, where 2 to 2.5 inches may fall. Rainfall
amounts will diminish steadily southeast of this area, with
locations from the upper Genesee Basin to the western Finger
Lakes likely seeing around 1 inch.

Across Western NY, there is about 0.5 inches of snow water
equivalent across the higher terrain of the western Southern
Tier, which will add some runoff to the equation with warmer
temperatures fully melting this snow. More snowpack and snow
water equivalent is found across the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario, with 2 to 3 inches of liquid equivalent across the Tug
Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks per the snow survey done by
the Hudson-Black River Regulating District early this week.

Soils are near saturation, as is often the case in the middle of
winter when evapotranspiration is minimal. Excessive runoff may
result in areal flooding of poor drainage and urban areas. As
the runoff progresses through drainages, flooding is possible
along the larger rivers as well. At this stage, the Buffalo area
creeks, Black River basin, and other rivers that drain the Tug
Hill and western Adirondacks are the most likely to flood.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for
     NYZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
         Friday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM
         EST Friday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST
         Friday for LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for
         LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Fries
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Fries
MARINE...RSH
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
507 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

NYZ001>006-008-010>012-019-020-085-101015-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
507 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A sharp frontal zone will stall near the Lower Great Lakes Friday
through Saturday night. Several waves of low pressure will move
along this front and combine with copious amounts of moisture to
produce widespread moderate to heavy rain across Western and North
Central New York. This may result in an increased potential for
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-101015-
Jefferson-
507 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A sharp frontal zone will stall near the Lower Great Lakes Friday
through Saturday night. Several waves of low pressure will move
along this front and combine with copious amounts of moisture to
produce widespread moderate to heavy rain across North Central New
York. This may result in an increased potential for flooding.

Temperatures will turn colder from north to south Saturday night.
This may allow rain to change to a period of significant freezing
rain, especially for areas near the Saint Lawrence River. If
precipitation changes to freezing rain early enough, a damaging ice
storm is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-014-021-101015-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
507 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A sharp frontal zone will stall near the Lower Great Lakes Friday
through Saturday night. Several waves of low pressure will move
along this front and combine with copious amounts of moisture to
produce widespread moderate rain. This may result in an increased
potential for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-101015-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
507 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
816 AM EST THU JAN 09 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             LOWVILLE                43.79N  75.48W
01/09/2020  M12.0 INCH       LEWIS              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF2000041

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
914 AM EST THU JAN 09 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 AM     SNOW             3 ESE MACEDON           43.05N  77.26W
01/09/2020  M4.1 INCH        WAYNE              NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             ALLEGANY STATE PARK     42.10N  78.75W
01/09/2020  M4.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 SW WALWORTH           43.12N  77.30W
01/09/2020  M4.6 INCH        WAYNE              NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF2000042
EVENT NUMBER BUF2000043
EVENT NUMBER BUF2000044

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 AM EST THU JAN 09 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             4 N CHURCHVILLE         43.15N  77.88W
01/09/2020  M4.0 INCH        MONROE             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0815 AM     SNOW             2 NW PALMYRA            43.08N  77.25W
01/09/2020  M4.5 INCH        WAYNE              NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF2000045
EVENT NUMBER BUF2000046

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1125 AM EST THU JAN 09 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     SNOW             WELLSVILLE              42.12N  77.95W
01/09/2020  M4.0 INCH        ALLEGANY           NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF2000047

DPK