Small Craft Advisory 18, NWS Buffalo, NY

088 
WHUS71 KBUF 092128
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
428 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

LEZ040-041-100530-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T0300Z-200210T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
428 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-100530-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T0700Z-200210T1800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
428 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-100530-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T1100Z-200210T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
428 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-100530-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T1300Z-200211T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
428 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-100530-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T0900Z-200211T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
428 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

152 
WHUS71 KBUF 092344
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
644 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

LEZ040-041-100745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T0300Z-200210T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
644 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-100745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T0700Z-200210T1800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
644 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-100745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T1100Z-200210T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
644 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-100745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T1300Z-200211T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
644 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-100745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T0900Z-200211T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
644 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

039 
WHUS71 KBUF 100315
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1015 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

LEZ040-041-101115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-200210T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1015 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-101115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T0700Z-200210T1800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1015 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-101115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T1100Z-200210T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1015 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-101115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T1300Z-200211T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1015 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-101115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T0900Z-200211T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1015 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

939 
WHUS71 KBUF 100952
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
452 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

LEZ040-041-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-200210T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
452 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST today.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-200210T1800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
452 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST today.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T1100Z-200210T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
452 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 4 PM EST today.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.200210T1300Z-200211T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
452 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 7 PM EST today.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-200211T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
452 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST today.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

310 
WHUS71 KBUF 101453
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
953 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

LOZ042-101600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-200210T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
953 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves will continue to diminish.

$$

LEZ020-040-041-101600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-200210T1800Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
953 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves will continue to diminish.

$$

LOZ043-044-102300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-200211T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
953 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-102300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-200211T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
953 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

752 
WHUS71 KBUF 101736
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1236 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

LOZ043>045-101845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-200211T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1236 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves will continue to subside this afternoon.

$$

Hitchcock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
205 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass just north of Lake Ontario tonight and early
Monday. Snow will develop from west to east ahead of this system
this evening, then change to rain across lower elevations later
tonight and Monday morning with the arrival of warmer air. Most
areas will see minor slushy accumulations tonight, with somewhat
greater amounts across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and
Tug Hill region. Mainly dry weather will then return from late
Monday through Wednesday before another system brings a chance of
snow Wednesday night and Thursday, followed by much colder air by
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Radar imagery showing the last of the lake enhanced flurries and
light snow showers drifting north across the Niagara Frontier, with
another small batch crossing Lewis County. All of this will end by
mid afternoon as boundary layer flow becomes SSW, ending the off-
lake fetch as warm advection lowers inversion heights further. The
dry weather will not last long, with the next system arriving by
early evening.

Surface low pressure will cross central lower Michigan this evening,
before passing just north of Lake Ontario overnight, reaching the
Saint Lawrence Valley by Monday morning. Large scale ascent in the
DPVA region ahead of the associated mid level trough, and warm
advection ahead of the surface low will produce a period of
precipitation ahead of the system, arriving early this evening
across Western NY and then spreading rapidly to the eastern Lake
Ontario region by late evening. Right entrance region jet dynamics
and a weak baroclinic wave running along the boundary will enhance
precipitation across northern and central PA later tonight, with the
northern edge of this possibly clipping the Southern Tier of NY as
well. A robust SSW low level jet and increasing near surface SSW
flow will modulate the resulting precipitation through orographic
influences, with upslope areas seeing enhancement while conversely
downslope areas see less precipitation. Downsloping and reduced
precipitation will be most notable along the Lake Erie shore,
Genesee Valley, and Black River Valley.

Precip type will start as all snow initially this evening. Low level
warm advection and added southerly downslope warming will then allow
for a change to rain across the lake plains from west to east
overnight as temperatures rise into the upper 30s. Temperatures will
stay a little cooler across higher terrain, allowing for precip to
remain as snow longer. As far as accumulations go, expect an inch or
less of slushy accumulation across lower elevations tonight through
Monday morning. The higher terrain of the western Southern Tier may
see 2-3 inches with greater QPF and a later change to rain. The
greatest snow amounts will be found in a relatively small area of
southern Lewis County favored by SSW upslope flow. This stretches
from near the Oswego/Lewis County border eastward across the
southern Tug Hill to McKeever at the triple point of Lewis,
Herkimer, and Oneida counties. This area may see 4-6 inches total
from tonight through Monday morning. Elsewhere across the eastern
Lake Ontario region, expect 2-3 inches across eastern Oswego,
northern Lewis, and northern/eastern Jefferson counties.

Rain across lower elevations and some wet snow across higher terrain
will continue through the morning and midday hours Monday.
Precipitation will then end from northwest to southeast as deep
moisture and ascent exit, and high pressure builds into the eastern
Great Lakes.

It will turn fairly windy along the Lake Erie shore tonight as
southerly downslope winds develop. The setup is not ideal, with too
little stability near the ridge tops to allow for an efficient
downslope regime. Expect gusts of around 35 mph to the lee of the
Chautauqua Ridge. By early Monday morning winds will veer
southwesterly, with a brief period of 30 mph gusts developing
northeast of Lake Erie near Buffalo.

Temperatures will bottom out in the low to mid 30s in most areas
this evening, then rise into the upper 30s to around 40 on the lake
plains by Monday morning. High temperatures will likely be reached
in the morning Monday before temperatures pull back a few degrees in
the afternoon with the onset of weak cold advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
This period will begin with high pressure moving across Western
and North Central NY Monday evening. The cold front that moved
through earlier in the day will be stretched from the southern
Ohio Valley to southern New England. While this keeps the
eastern Great Lakes mostly dry overnight, clouds will remain
across the region as low pressure tracks along the front and
into the Mid-Atlantic region. A few snow showers may clip
Allegany and the Finger Lakes into Tuesday morning. Low
temperatures will fall to the low to mid 20s.

Low pressure will continue to track towards southern New England and
off the coast Tuesday. Moisture from this system, may continue to
skirt inland areas of the forecast areas resulting in rain or snow
showers from the Finger Lakes to the Tug Hill region. Cold air
advection will increase across the eastern Great Lakes as the region
remains on the northwest side of this system. Temperatures at 850mb
will fall to -8 to -5 C by Tuesday afternoon with westerly winds
producing breezy conditions by evening across the region. High
temperatures may be met early on Tuesday before temperatures fall
rapidly by evening. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s.

The cold air continues to move into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday
night and lake effect snow showers will likely develop Tuesday
evening as 850mb temperatures fall -12 to -10 C across the Lakes.
The 925-850 mb mean flow is expected to be due west across Lake Erie
and northwest across Lake Ontario. While this cold air advection
will coincide with a passing shortwave trough it will only bring a
slight uptick to synoptic moisture. Light lake snows are likely east-
southeast of Lake Erie and more moderate lake snows can be expected
across the Tug Hill and southeast of Lake Ontario. An inch or two
are possible into Wednesday morning.

High pressure will track south of the region Wednesday morning and
warm air advection and subsidence will shut off lake snows east of
Lake Erie in the morning hours and by the afternoon for locations
east of Lake Ontario. A southerly wind and warm air advection will
allow temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 30s. Meanwhile, a
southern stream system will be developing across the southern
Mississippi Valley. Moving into Wednesday night, a 250mb 200kt jet
will round an upper level ridge north of the eastern Great Lakes.
Low pressure will continue to deepen while it tracks north-northeast
across the Appalachians. There remains uncertainty with the track
and intensity of this surface low and whether it phases with a
northern stream system. Precipitation type concerns and/or
accumulating snow are possible across the forecast area into
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After this, forecast confidence increases, with model guidance
suggesting the northern branch shortwave will be strong enough
to push the arctic boundary through the region sometime in the
vicinity of late Thursday. This is likely to bring much colder
weather...possibly the coldest of the season. The core of the
cold air should cross on Friday, with the GGEM/ECMWF both
clipping the North Country with 850mb temperatures down to -30c.
While this may not pan out, there is no doubt that Friday will
be a cold day with highs forecast to be mainly in the teens with
single digits across the North Country. Lows Friday night
should easily drop into the single digits with lows well below
zero across the North Country. Forecast is about 5 degrees
colder than NBM, and if the colder model guidance verifies this
may have to be lowered even more.

The passage of the Arctic boundary, and the cold northwesterly flow
behind it is likely to result in lake effect snow showers south of
both lakes Thursday night and Friday. This also was underdone by NBM
guidance. These should taper off Friday night as high pressure when
high pressure builds into the region and winds diminish.

The shot of cold air will be a relatively brief one, with a
southerly return flow developing Saturday as the surface high builds
into New England. This will provide dry weather, with temperatures
rebounding back into the 20s by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The last of the light lake enhanced snow will end by mid afternoon
with VSBY/CIGS returning to mainly VFR with the exception of the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier, where MVFR CIGS will
remain.

Low pressure will track just north of the area tonight. Snow will
develop from west to east this evening ahead of the system, with
several hours of IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS. The snow will then change
to rain from west to east overnight, especially across lower
elevations as temperatures warm. VSBY will improve to MVFR and VFR
with the change to light rain. The lower elevation rain and higher
elevation snow will continue through Monday morning before ending
from northwest to southeast Monday afternoon. CIGS will deteriorate
to IFR in many areas late tonight and Monday morning. The IFR CIGS
will linger through Monday afternoon across higher terrain, while
the lower elevations begin to improve.

Finally, a period of low level wind shear will develop tonight as a
strong 40-50 knot low level jet crosses the area.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly dry with a chance of some MVFR CIGS.
Wednesday night and Thursday...IFR possible in snow.
Friday...VFR, with local IFR possible in lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will pass by just north of Lake Ontario tonight before
exiting into northern New England Monday. Southerly downslope winds
will increase overnight on Lake Erie, with sustained winds exceeding
20 knots. Winds will then become more southwest and west on Monday
following the passage of the cold front associated with the low
passing to our north. This will produce a period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Lakes Erie and Ontario. The stronger winds
will be brief, quickly diminishing later in the afternoon as high
pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for NYZ008.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
438 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-101000-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
438 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Rain or snow is likely on Wednesday night and Thursday, followed by
much colder weather and snow showers Thursday night through Friday
night. Snow amounts are uncertain at this point, but there is a small
chance that this system will produce significant snow accumulations
in the Wednesday night through Thursday night timeframe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-101000-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
438 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Snow is expected tonight into Monday morning. Several inches of snow
is expected to accumulate on the Tug Hill, with lesser amounts
expected across lower terrain. This may impact the Monday morning
commute.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Rain or snow is likely on Wednesday night and Thursday, followed by
much colder weather and snow showers Thursday night through Friday
night. Snow amounts are uncertain at this point, but there is a small
chance that this system will produce significant snow accumulations
in the Wednesday night through Thursday night timeframe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-101000-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
438 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-101000-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
438 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel