Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2020

Lake Effect Snow Warning 6, NWS Buffalo, NY

November 2, 2020Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Nov 2, 2020, 3:24 AM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Nov 2, 2020, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for 9 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Nov 2, 2020, 3:24 AM EST (08:24 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 2, 2020, 4:00 PM EST
Expired
Nov 3, 2020, 1:05 AM EST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Nov 2, 6:30 PM ESTSNOW 4Copenhagen, NYSTILL SNOWING HEAVY.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2020-11-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2020-11-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -443 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1110 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
103 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-443 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-133 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

876 
WWUS41 KBUF 020824
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
324 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

NYZ006>008-021630-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0008.201102T2100Z-201103T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0006.201102T2100Z-201103T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201102T1500Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
324 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, heavy lake effect snow
  expected mainly on the Tug Hill. Total snow accumulations of 7
  to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows, while little 
  snow accumulation is expected over the lower elevations, 
  including the Black River Valley. Winds gusting as high as 45 
  mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow diminishing through 
  the morning. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, from 4 PM this 
  afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday. For the Winter Weather 
  Advisory, until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible late this
  afternoon through late tonight. The hazardous conditions could
  impact this evenings commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree
  branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands late this
afternoon through late tonight, especially on the Tug Hill. If 
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and 
visibilities.

Periods of lighter snow this morning will result in snow covered 
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while 
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4398 7517 4408 7515 4389 7537 4384 7573 
        4370 7601 4347 7597 4348 7581 4342 7550 4352 7536 
        4360 7513 
TIME Y20M11D02T2100Z-Y20M11D03T0300Z
COORD...4360 7513 4380 7512 4383 7517 4364 7545 
        4363 7581 4348 7581 4340 7586 4345 7570 4342 7550 
        4352 7536 
TIME Y20M11D03T0300Z-Y20M11D03T0900Z

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-021200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201102T1200Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
324 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Expect snow to diminish through daybreak. Additional
  snow accumulations of up to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 
  40 mph.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions early this morning.
  Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility in
  open areas. The hazardous conditions could impact the early morning
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
JLA
5 follow-up statements
994 
WWUS41 KBUF 021144
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
644 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

NYZ012-019-020-085-021245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201102T1200Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
644 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Light snow showers and flurries will diminish through the morning.
Use caution though as some roads may still be slippery and snow 
covered from the recent snow. 

$$

NYZ006>008-021945-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.201102T2100Z-201103T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201102T1500Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
644 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, heavy lake effect snow
  expected mainly on the Tug Hill. Total snow accumulations of 7
  to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows, while little
  snow accumulation is expected over the lower elevations,
  including the Black River Valley. Winds gusting as high as 45
  mph will result in areas of blowing snow. For the Winter Weather
  Advisory, snow diminishing through the morning. Additional snow
  accumulations of an inch or less. Winds gusting as high as 40 
  mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, from 4 PM this 
  afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday. For the Winter Weather 
  Advisory, until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible late this
  afternoon through late tonight. The hazardous conditions could
  impact this evenings commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree
  branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands late this
afternoon through late tonight, especially on the Tug Hill. If 
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and 
visibilities.

Periods of lighter snow this morning will result in snow covered 
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while 
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4398 7517 4408 7515 4389 7537 4384 7573 
        4370 7601 4347 7597 4348 7581 4342 7550 4352 7536 
        4360 7513 
TIME Y20M11D02T2100Z-Y20M11D03T0300Z
COORD...4360 7513 4380 7512 4383 7517 4364 7545 
        4363 7581 4348 7581 4340 7586 4345 7570 4342 7550 
        4352 7536 
TIME Y20M11D03T0300Z-Y20M11D03T0900Z

$$

JLA
473 
WWUS41 KBUF 021508
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1008 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

NYZ006>008-022315-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201102T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.201102T2100Z-201103T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1008 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 7 to
  13 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates may
  reach 1-2 inches per hour. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will
  result in areas of blowing snow. 

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4398 7517 4408 7515 4389 7537 4384 7573 
        4370 7601 4347 7597 4348 7581 4342 7550 4352 7536 
        4360 7513 
TIME Y20M11D02T2100Z-Y20M11D03T0300Z
COORD...4360 7513 4380 7512 4383 7517 4364 7545 
        4363 7581 4348 7581 4340 7586 4345 7570 4342 7550 
        4352 7536 
TIME Y20M11D03T0300Z-Y20M11D03T0900Z

$$

TMA
048 
WWUS41 KBUF 022055
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
355 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

NYZ006>008-030500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.201102T2100Z-201103T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
355 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 7 to
  13 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates may
  reach 1-2 inches per hour. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will
  result in areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4398 7517 4408 7515 4389 7537 4384 7573 
        4370 7601 4347 7597 4348 7581 4342 7550 4352 7536 
        4360 7513 
TIME Y20M11D02T2100Z-Y20M11D03T0300Z
COORD...4360 7513 4380 7512 4383 7517 4364 7545 
        4363 7581 4348 7581 4340 7586 4345 7570 4342 7550 
        4352 7536 
TIME Y20M11D03T0300Z-Y20M11D03T0900Z

$$
889 
WWUS41 KBUF 030037
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
737 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

NYZ006>008-030845-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201103T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
737 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 7 to
  13 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Greatest snow
  accumulation on the Tug Hill, with little to none west of I-81.
  Snowfall rates may reach 1-2 inches per hour this evening. 
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will result in areas of blowing 
  snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible on the
  Tug Hill. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4398 7517 4408 7515 4389 7537 4384 7573 
        4370 7601 4347 7597 4348 7581 4342 7550 4352 7536 
        4360 7513 
TIME Y20M11D02T2100Z-Y20M11D03T0300Z
COORD...4360 7513 4380 7512 4383 7517 4364 7545 
        4363 7581 4348 7581 4340 7586 4345 7570 4342 7550 
        4352 7536 
TIME Y20M11D03T0300Z-Y20M11D03T0900Z

$$
798 
WWUS41 KBUF 030605
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
105 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2020

NYZ006>008-030715-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201103T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
105 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Expect rain and snow showers early this morning to gradually
diminish with little additional snow accumulation. Use caution as
roads will remain snow covered and slushy where heavy snow 
occurred Monday evening. 

$$

JLA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Nov 2, 1:33 AM EST, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 2, 1:33 AM EST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
133 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Accumulating lake effect snow will focus across the higher terrain
east of Lakes Erie and Ontario overnight. Outside of the main lake
effect areas a few snow showers will produce the first minor
measurable snow of the season in many areas. The lake effect snow
will briefly diminish during the day Monday, then a band of heavy
snow will develop again across the Tug Hill from late afternoon
through Monday night, with rain at lower elevations close to the
lake. The early taste of winter will not last though, with a
significant warm up likely mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FLow is becoming more nw through the forecast area behind secondary
trough. Heavy snow on the Tug Hill has abated as winds shifted
northwest. So, we have transitioned to a more multiband lake effect
regime with enhanced heavier lake effect bands rest of night.
Accumulations through daybreak will be less than 1 inch for most,
though isolated amounts of a couple inches are still possible
where snow showers are more persistent.

It will remain quite windy early this morning. The strongest winds
will be found southeast of Lake Erie, especially close to the shore,
with gusts of up to 50 mph. Gusts will also reach 40-45 mph along
the south and east shores of Lake Ontario early this morning
as winds have become more northwest. Outside of these areas,
gusts of 30-40 mph will be common tonight as much colder air
pours into the eastern Great Lakes.

Overall, total snow accumulations by daybreak this morning
(including what has already fallen) may reach 3-5 inches across
the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, including the Chautauqua
Ridge, Boston Hills, and the ridges of Wyoming County. 1-3
inches is possible farther inland on the hills of Allegany
County and the Bristol Hills. Off Lake Ontario, expect 4-7
inches across the Tug Hill (again, with most of that already
having occurred), and 1-3 inches for the surrounding lower
elevations. Outside of these areas, any accumulations will be
limited to less than an inch.

Winter weather advisories remain over western Southern Tier into the
higher terrain of Southern Erie and Wyoming county and also for the
eastern Lake Ontario region. Outside of these areas, light snow with
the gusty winds will result in areas of lower visibility which could
linger into the Monday morning commute. The lake effect snow will
diminish to scattered rain and snow showers for a time from late
morning through mid afternoon today. The lull in lake effect will be
brief as another round of what is still looking like very heavy lake
effect snow is possible late Monday afternoon into Monday night on
westerly flow east of Lake Ontario, targeting the Tug Hill. See
details on this in the short term discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
...Significant accumulating lake snows possible east of Lake
Ontario during this period...

A secondary potent shortwave will drop southeast channeling down
the back side of the broader trough. While lake snows weaken
off Lake Erie, the exact opposite can be said east of Lake
Ontario where westerly flow across the lake will make use of the
longer fetch to produce what could be our first significant
snowfall, especially across the Tug Hill. The only hindrance
right now appears to be residence time of the band over any
given location which is expected to gradually settle southward
over the course of the night. However, confident enough that
there will be time for snowfall accumulation greater than +7
inches east of Lake Ontario in the most intense portion of the
band. A Winter storm watch has been issued for this potential
from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Some minor
accumulations can still anticipated east of Lake Erie overnight
but with drier air moving in and equilibrium levels falling this
will limit the lake response off Lake Erie. Boundary layer
temperatures will also be a little warmer east of Lake Erie,
limiting accumulations.

It will become very windy again Monday evening behind the
shortwave, with gusts of up to 50 mph possible across much of
Western NY, especially close to Lake Erie and extending across
the Niagara Frontier to near Rochester.

The aforementioned mid-level trough then moves well east of the
region by early Tuesday morning. The loss of background moisture
with the departing trough and lowering equilibrium levels will then
aid in gradually weakening and diminishing lake snows over the
course of the day.

After Tuesday, dry weather returns as sfc ridging builds off the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast. This will not only provide
dry weather through the end of this period but also initiate a
big warm up. Temperatures anticipated to climb well above normal
with highs climbing into the 60s for the later half of the
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will be marked by a dry stretch that will also feature
mild temperatures that could push to near daily record levels by the
end of the period.

A flat zonal flow to start the period will become more amplified as
a sharp upper level trough drops down across the western US. There
will be a pause to the amplification...this on Thursday and into
Friday as a shortwave passes across southern Canada. This feature
will bring a few more clouds to the region Thursday...and may even
allow for afternoon temperatures to dip a degree lower than the
previous day (Wednesday). By the weekend, temperatures at 850 hPa
will push towards +12 to +13C. A look at past soundings for KBUF,
the moving maximum temperature at 850 hPa next weekend is right
around +12 to +13C...thus with sunny skies will place highs Saturday
and Sunday close to daily record values. The one factor that may
keep us from reaching near record highs is with the upper level and
down to the surface ridge axis right over us...boundary layer mixing
may not be that deep, which would keep afternoon temperatures a few
degrees cooler than a well mixed lower atmosphere. None the less
next weekend is shaping up to be pleasantly mild.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue east of Lake Erie early this
morning, including KJHW, with mainly MVFR VSBY and CIGS, though
brief IFR intervals in heavier snow showers are still possible.
East of Lake Ontario, similar story with overall MVFR CIGS and
VSBY though a few pockets of IFR conditions are still possible
in heavier snow showers.

Winds have become more northwest as a trough has crossed the
area. These gusty winds will produce some blowing snow where
snow accumulation occurs.

The snow showers and lake effect will diminish to scattered rain and
snow showers Monday morning. This will allow lower elevations to
return to mainly VFR by late morning, with MVFR CIGS across higher
terrain. Signals starting to show up that it southwest winds are
going to become very windy over western NY again late this
afternoon and this will be included in later TAF updates.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...IFR possible in lake effect snow
east and southeast of the lakes. VFR elsewhere.
Wednesday through Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
West gales will become northwest overnight following the passage of
a secondary trough. Winds will diminish temporarily Monday morning
through early afternoon before becoming westerly and increasing to
gales again on Lakes Erie and Ontario. Gales will continue into
Monday evening before diminishing overnight.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The water level on Lake Erie at Buffalo peaked at about 6.7 feet
above low water datum during the late afternoon on Sunday in the
wake of a strong cold front. The lake level should fall early this
morning with winds becoming more northwesterly on the lake.

Later today into tonight, even though water levels are not as high
as we have seen recently, westerly gales on Lake Ontario will result
in potential for significant wave action and lakeshore flooding on
east end of the lake. Thus, a lakeshore flood watch remains in
effect.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ006>008.
     Lakeshore Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday
     morning for NYZ005>007.
     Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Tuesday morning
     for NYZ006>008.
     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ010-019-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ012-
     019-020-085.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon
         for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ043>045-063>065.
         Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK/JLA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JLA
SHORT TERM...AR/TMA
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...Hitchcock/JLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JLA/TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 1, 9:50 PM EST, 5 hours 34 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

NYZ001>003-011-030300-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Wind gusts may reach 50 mph late Monday afternoon through Monday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-030300-
Northern Erie-
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Wind gusts may reach 50 mph late Monday afternoon through Monday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-030300-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

Wind gusts may reach 50 mph late Monday afternoon through Monday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-030300-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Wind gusts may reach 50 mph late Monday afternoon through Monday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-013-014-021-030300-
Wayne-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-030300-
Northern Cayuga-
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-030300-
Lewis-
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-007-030300-
Oswego-Jefferson-
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.
   Lakeshore Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-030300-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale force winds are likely again late Monday afternoon through
Monday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-030300-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-030300-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-030300-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
950 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 1, 10:04 PM EST, 5 hours 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1004 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

NYZ006>008-020415-
Jefferson-Oswego-Lewis-
1004 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...LEWIS
AND NORTHEASTERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...

A band of lake effect snow will continue through late evening east
of Lake Ontario. The most persistent snow will be found from Pulaski
to Adams and extending inland across much of Lewis County. The snow
will mix with rain close to Lake Ontario. Snowfall rates will reach
1 inch per hour at times across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill
Plateau.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will result in some blowing and drifting
snow on the Tug Hill Plateau.

Travel will continue to deteriorate through late evening as
temperatures drop below freezing across the higher terrain. Travel
on Interstate 81 between exits 35 and 47 will be difficult at times,
with occasional wet snow, rain, and snow pellets.

LAT...LON 4344 7549 4344 7562 4348 7581 4345 7583
      4351 7628 4369 7626 4378 7629 4383 7636
      4387 7635 4384 7644 4385 7647 4391 7650
      4413 7524 4410 7517 4361 7511

Hitchcock

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 1, 10:04 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFLewis71 min
Nov 2, 2:41 AM ESTLakeshore Flood WarningBUFCayuga, Jefferson, Oswego25 hr
Nov 2, 2:55 AM ESTWind AdvisoryBUFCattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson and 6 more25 hr
Nov 2, 3:44 AM ESTLakeshore Flood AdvisoryBUFChautauqua, Erie21 hr
Nov 2, 5:03 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFLewis, Oswego102 min

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2020Every lake effect snow warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.