Lake Effect Snow Warning 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

734 
WWUS41 KBUF 191918
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
218 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

NYZ004>006-200330-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.200220T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
218 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake 
  snows. Snowfall rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour at 
  times from late this evening through daybreak on Thursday.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. The 
  greatest snow amounts are expected to focus across northern 
  Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult at times. The 
  hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The heaviest snow will fall in very narrow bands. If traveling,
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities. Visibilities will be sharply reduced to less than
one-half mile during the heaviest snow.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4344 7581 4348 7603 4350 7602 4349 7656 
        4334 7683 4327 7676 4324 7645 4320 7629 4328 7619 
        4316 7588 
TIME Y20M02D20T0000Z-Y20M02D20T0600Z
COORD...4335 7587 4339 7598 4343 7667 4333 7690 
        4333 7738 4323 7730 4319 7709 4318 7647 4324 7645 
        4316 7588 
TIME Y20M02D20T0600Z-Y20M02D20T1200Z
COORD...4324 7645 4333 7738 4324 7739 4317 7731 
        4305 7723 4300 7714 4301 7680 4303 7680 4302 7662 
        4302 7650 
TIME Y20M02D20T1200Z-Y20M02D20T1800Z

$$

NYZ003-200330-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.200220T0900Z-200220T1800Z/
Monroe-
Including the city of Rochester
218 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake Effect Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3
  to 5 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates
  may reach 1 inch per hour briefly around daybreak on Thursday.

* WHERE...Monroe county. The greatest snow amounts are expected
  along Lake Ontario and to the south and east of Irondequoit Bay.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Thursday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
JLA

566 
WWUS41 KBUF 192308
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
608 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

NYZ004>006-200730-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.200220T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
608 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake 
  snows.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will most certainly impact the morning commute for
  much of the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4344 7581 4348 7603 4350 7602 4349 7656 
        4334 7683 4327 7676 4324 7645 4320 7629 4328 7619 
        4316 7588 
TIME Y20M02D20T0000Z-Y20M02D20T0600Z
COORD...4335 7587 4339 7598 4343 7667 4333 7690 
        4333 7738 4323 7730 4319 7709 4318 7647 4324 7645 
        4316 7588 
TIME Y20M02D20T0600Z-Y20M02D20T1200Z
COORD...4324 7645 4333 7738 4324 7739 4317 7731 
        4305 7723 4300 7714 4301 7680 4303 7680 4302 7662 
        4302 7650 
TIME Y20M02D20T1200Z-Y20M02D20T1800Z

$$

NYZ003-200730-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.200220T0900Z-200220T1800Z/
Monroe-
Including the city of Rochester
608 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Monroe county.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will likely impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

131 
WWUS41 KBUF 200312
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1012 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

NYZ004>006-201115-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
1012 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates
  in the heart of the band will average one to two inches 
  overnight and early Thursday morning.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. The 
  greatest snow amounts are expected to focus across northern 
  Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions
  will most certainly impact the morning commute for much of the
  warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4344 7581 4348 7603 4350 7602 4349 7656 
        4334 7683 4327 7676 4324 7645 4320 7629 4328 7619 
        4316 7588 
TIME Y20M02D20T0000Z-Y20M02D20T0600Z
COORD...4335 7587 4339 7598 4343 7667 4333 7690 
        4333 7738 4323 7730 4319 7709 4318 7647 4324 7645 
        4316 7588 
TIME Y20M02D20T0600Z-Y20M02D20T1200Z
COORD...4324 7645 4333 7738 4324 7739 4317 7731 
        4305 7723 4300 7714 4301 7680 4303 7680 4302 7662 
        4302 7650 
TIME Y20M02D20T1200Z-Y20M02D20T1800Z

$$

NYZ003-201115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.200220T0900Z-200220T1800Z/
Monroe-
Including the city of Rochester
1012 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Accumulating lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations
  of 3 to 5 inches. Snowfall rates may reach 1 inch per hour
  during the first few hours of daylight on Thursday.

* WHERE...Monroe county. The greatest amounts are expected
  along Lake Ontario and to the south and east of Irondequoit Bay.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will likely impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

391 
WWUS41 KBUF 200851
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
351 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

NYZ004>006-201700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
351 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Additional snow accumulations
  of 1 to 3 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If 
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and 
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4340 7613 4341 7664 4337 7665 4330 7690 
        4328 7690 4324 7739 4320 7668 4324 7645 4320 7587 
        4329 7584 
TIME Y20M02D20T0900Z-Y20M02D20T1200Z
COORD...4324 7645 4329 7693 4326 7694 4329 7723 
        4329 7738 4304 7737 4304 7713 4300 7695 4303 7680 
        4302 7650 
TIME Y20M02D20T1200Z-Y20M02D20T1800Z

$$

NYZ003-201700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.200220T0900Z-200220T1800Z/
Monroe-
Including the city of Rochester
351 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1
  to 3 inches possible.

* WHERE...Monroe county.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
Reynolds

882 
WWUS41 KBUF 201142
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
642 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

NYZ006-201245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
642 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Lake effect snows have moved out of the area with little 
additional accumulation expected. 

$$

NYZ004-005-201800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
642 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  1 to 3 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4324 7648 4325 7661 4341 7661 4330 7681 
        4326 7694 4329 7738 4320 7737 4318 7698 4315 7669 
        4318 7647 
TIME Y20M02D20T0900Z-Y20M02D20T1200Z
COORD...4320 7647 4327 7697 4325 7697 4329 7723 
        4329 7738 4315 7738 4313 7711 4311 7712 4307 7670 
        4305 7650 
TIME Y20M02D20T1200Z-Y20M02D20T1500Z

$$

NYZ003-201800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Monroe-
Including the city of Rochester
642 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Monroe county.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Reynolds

538 
WWUS41 KBUF 201452
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
952 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

NYZ004-005-201600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
952 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Occasional light lake effect snow will continue through the day 
with an additional inch or two of accumulation. Since heavier lake
effect snow has ended, the lake effect snow warning is cancelled.
Travel could still be difficult on unplowed roads and sidewalks. 

$$

NYZ003-201600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-200220T1800Z/
Monroe-
Including the city of Rochester
952 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Occasional light lake effect snow will continue through the day 
with less than an inch of additional accumulation. 

$$

JLA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1045 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A west northwest flow of much colder air will produce periods of
lake effect snow through Thursday east and southeast of the lakes.
The heaviest snow will be found southeast of Lake Ontario, with much
lower snow amounts southeast of Lake Erie. The lake effect snow will
end by Friday as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. This
high will take up residence over the Mid Atlantic states over the
weekend, with dry weather and gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deepening cold air and increasing convergence from a cold front
settling across the region is producing widespread lake effect snow
with embedded heavier snow showers that are dropping vsby under a
mile, at least briefly. The lake effect snow will continue to
blossom next couple hours as it moves into the Southern Tier.

The main focus through the near term will be lake effect snow
potential. A longwave trough will establish itself from the Great
Lakes to New England, bringing a few days of below normal
temperatures. Following the fropa this morning, lake effect snow
will rapidly weaken and become disorganized again for the afternoon
before re-organizing tonight. Yet another cold front will move south
across the area Thursday morning, forcing lake effect snow to move
again. From a synoptic standpoint, outside of lake effect areas
these fronts will move through mainly dry, with just a few scattered
light snow showers possible.

The deepest cold air and best moisture will cross Lake Ontario
tonight through Thursday morning, when lake induced equilibrium
levels rise to 8-9K feet and a nearly ideal thermodynamic
environment will be found beneath the inversion with a fairly deep
mixed phase layer allowing for large dendrites and increasing the
fluff factor with SLRs in stronger bands likely exceeding 30:1. The
best conditions by far will be found over Lake Ontario. Over Lake
Erie, the airmass will remain quite dry, with lower inversion
heights and lack of upstream connection.

Off Lake Ontario for tonight...

Boundary layer flow will become better aligned again this evening,
and moisture will improve again over the lake. Mesoscale model
guidance suggests a dynamic upstream connection will develop to Lake
Huron tonight. The upstream connection and thermodynamics suggest
the band should intensify this evening and overnight, supporting 1-2
inch per hour (perhaps higher) snowfall rates. Band intensity and
snow rates will be capable of supporting warning criteria snowfall,
but the main uncertainty revolves around if the band can stay in one
location long enough. Latest high resolution model guidance
including the GEM, 3KM NAM, HREF, and high-res WRF windows suggest
the band will make several north/south oscillations tonight through
early Thursday morning with subtle changes in boundary layer flow,
and changes in the location of the upstream connection. The north-
south movements of the band may make it difficult to reach warning
criteria in any one location, as the higher snowfall rates get
spread out over a larger footprint.

Expect the initial band to develop across Oswego County this
evening. A subtle shift in boundary layer flow will then push the
band southward a little into northern Cayuga and northeast Wayne
counties by around midnight. Boundary layer flow may then back 10-20
degrees again late tonight ahead of the final cold front, moving the
band back into southern Oswego County. Finally, the passage of the
cold front will move the band rapidly back south again Thursday
morning. This front may capture the entire band and push it onshore,
with a quick burst of snow extending back westward along the
lakeshore into the Rochester area. By Thursday afternoon what
remains of the main band, and the upstream Lake Huron connection
will be weakening to the west and south of Rochester.

As far as accumulations go, for tonight through Thursday expect
accumulations of 6-10 inches. The lower end of that range is more
likely with greater band movement, while the higher end is possible
with less band movement and more residence time in any one location.
The greatest snow amounts are expected across southern Oswego,
northern Cayuga, and northeast Wayne counties, along a line from
Wolcott to Martville to Central Square. Farther west, expect a few
inches of accumulation along and north of Route 104 in Orleans and
Monroe counties, with up to 4-5 inches locally near and east of
Irondequoit Bay.

Given the uncertainty in the amount of band movement, we have
elected to keep the Winter Storm Watch in place for Wayne, Northern
Cayuga, and Oswego counties. The forecast snow amounts straddle high
end advisory and low end warning criteria.

Off Lake Erie for tonight...

The drier airmass, shorter fetch, and lack of upstream connection
will keep the Lake Erie lake snow very weak in comparison. Expect
disorganized snow showers at times into Thursday, with a relative
peak in coverage tonight. This will produce a spotty inch or so of
accumulation each 12 hours tonight through Thursday, mainly across
the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and the
higher terrain in western Wyoming County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NW'erly flow across the eastern Great Lakes will gradually back to
the southwest Thursday night. This will encourage any remaining lake
snows to slowly drift back to the north over the course of the
night. This will be primarily for Lake Ontario lake snows as there
likely won't be much left going off Lake Erie with BUFKIT sounding
profiles showing equilibrium levels falling well below 5K feet. Add
to that, warm advection processes will also aid in the demise of
lake snows. So, additional accumulations should be light if anything
at all. Otherwise, one thing is for sure it will be a cold start to
the day Friday. Temperatures at sunrise will range from the single
digits, even a few below zero readings east of Lake Ontario, too the
lower teens along the lake plains.

Despite the cold start, it will be short lived as a warm front
traverses the eastern Great Lakes on Friday. This feature will help
to modify the air mass overhead with H850T rapidly warming from
-15C/-18C to -4C/-6C. The overall result will be high temperatures,
although still chilly, warming into the upper 20s to a few locations
topping 30F. The warm front appears to be moisture starved and
lacking any real support, so have kept a dry forecast. Infact, we
should see decreasing clouds and some sunshine across the region.

High pressure to our south takes over as we head into the weekend
with dry weather and warming temperatures. The next chance at any
precipitation doesn't come until early next week. More on that in
the long term disco. Otherwise, look for day to day high
temperatures to rise into the 40s by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The quiet weather experienced over the weekend will slowly give way
to more active weather during this period.

Large area of high pressure centered along the Carolina's will
slowly exit out to sea Sunday night but should maintain dry weather
across our region. In its wake, an area of low pressure over the
deep south will track northeast towards the eastern Great Lakes.
While there is some discrepancies in regards to track and timing of
this system it appears that wet weather will return. At this point
have kept chance POPs in the forecast with a mixture of rain and
snow Monday into Tuesday. P-type will likely be highly dependent on
the positioning of a cold front approach from our northwest. Then
there is the eventual track of the parent low and the development of
a possible coastal low. Anyways, lots of uncertainty with the next
system. Looking further into the future, can't really see any real
cold air on the horizon until late in the week or even until the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Light lake effect snow with embedded brief heavier snow showers will
continue into early afternoon for all sites except ART behind a cold
front moving south through the area. Overall, expect MVFR cigs and
VFR vsby, though will continue to see localized IFR vsby through
midday at ROC as waves of snow showers move in off Lake Ontario.
For this afternoon, plan on scattered flurries and light snow
showers southeast of the lakes with mainly VFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS.

Tonight, local IFR will re-develop in lake effect snow southeast of
the lakes. Most of this lake effect snow will avoid the terminals
overnight, with the heaviest snow focusing southeast of Lake Ontario
near KFZY where VSBY of less than a half mile is likely at times.
Lake effect snow will remain light and disorganized southeast of
Lake Erie, with just light scattered snow showers near KJHW.

Outlook...
Thursday...Mainly VFR, except for localized IFR conditions in
lake snows southeast of the lakes.
Friday through Sunday...VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate westerlies will remain in place through tonight on Lake
Ontario, becoming northwest Thursday. This will maintain Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario today through Thursday and
Thursday night. Meanwhile on Lake Erie, moderate westerlies will
gradually diminish this afternoon and evening, with winds and waves
subsiding to below Small Craft Advisory levels.

High pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic
Friday and Saturday. A moderate pressure gradient will be maintained
to the north of this high, possibly bringing another round of Small
Craft Advisory conditions to the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.CLIMATE...
While temperatures throughout western and north central New York are
still averaging above normal through the first half of this month...
the departures from normal are much less significant than those
from the previous month. In fact...we have already experienced
more days with below normal temperatures than we did in all of
January. As expected...this has led to average temperatures that
are notably lower than those from January.

A large reason for the big change from last month has been a
significant weakening of the MJO over the Equatorial Pacific. A very
robust MJO that spent a large portion of January in Phase 4-6...the
'warmest' phases for the Great Lakes region...has since weakened and
become a minor 'player' on the hemispheric teleconnection stage. The
weakening has been accompanied by a weaker East Asian jet over the
northern Pacific...and this in turn has allowed for more
amplification in the overall pattern across North America. This
makes sense...in that a weak MJO would allow a pattern more typical
of a neutral ENSO...which we have been experiencing since the Fall.
Our coldest winters usually come during a neutral...or weak...ENSO
event.

There has also been a dislodging of the polar vortex...which spent
the majority of January anchored within the arctic circle. This
feature has since spent a good chunk of the current month on this
side of the Pole in the vcnty of Hudson Bay...which is where it
typically resides at this time of year.

While we have experienced glancing shots of arctic air as a result
of the polar vortex pushing further to the south...there has been a
serious lack of any mid latitude blocking to promote a prolonged
arctic intrusion. There has not been a persistent Greenland block or
West coast ridge to speak of...and at this point there does not seem
to be any guidance that would suggest a change in this trend. That
being said...a weak MJO is being forecast to persist through the
rest of the month into the start of March. Again...this should allow
the mid level amplification usually associated from a neutral ENSO
to persist. Thus...temperatures for the month should end up
averaging below those from January with a fair share of days
featuring below normal readings.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for
         LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042-
         045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JLA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JLA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR/Hitchcock/JLA
MARINE...Hitchcock
CLIMATE...RSH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
524 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

NYZ001-010>014-019>021-085-201030-
Niagara-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
524 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-003-201030-
Orleans-Monroe-
524 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Lake effect snow will develop later tonight and continue through
midday Thursday. Moderate snow accumulations are possible,
especially near Lake Ontario and in the eastern suburbs of Rochester.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-201030-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
524 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-201030-
Jefferson-Lewis-
524 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-201030-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
524 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock