Gale Watch 6, NWS Buffalo, NY

096 
WHUS71 KBUF 111454
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1054 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

LOZ042-112300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-200411T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T1800Z-200414T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1054 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-200411T2200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T1800Z-200414T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1054 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 knots 
  and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 45 
  knots and waves 9 to 12 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from Monday afternoon through 
  Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ044-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-200411T2200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T2000Z-200414T2000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1054 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 knots 
  and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 35 
  knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from Monday afternoon through 
  Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ045-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-200411T2200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T2000Z-200414T2000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1054 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 knots 
  and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds to 
  40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from Monday afternoon through 
  Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ062-063-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T1800Z-200414T2000Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1054 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds to 50 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ064-065-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T2000Z-200414T2000Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1054 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds to 45 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the 
  Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T1500Z-200414T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1054 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 40 knots possible.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T1300Z-200414T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1054 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 50 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

295 
WHUS71 KBUF 111749
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

LOZ043-120300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-200411T2200Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T1800Z-200414T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0008.200413T1800Z-200414T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds to 45 knots and waves 
  9 to 12 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, west 
  winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 2 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT 
  Tuesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-120300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-200411T2200Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T2000Z-200414T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0008.200413T2000Z-200414T2000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds to 35 knots and waves 
  11 to 15 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, west 
  winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 4 PM Monday to 4 PM EDT 
  Tuesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-120300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-200411T2200Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T2000Z-200414T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0008.200413T2000Z-200414T2000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southwest winds to 40 knots and 
  waves 10 to 14 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  west winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 4 PM Monday to 4 PM EDT 
  Tuesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-120300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T1800Z-200414T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0008.200413T1800Z-200414T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062-063-120300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T1800Z-200414T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0008.200413T1800Z-200414T2000Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 45 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ064-065-120300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T2000Z-200414T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0008.200413T2000Z-200414T2000Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 45 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the 
  Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-120300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T1500Z-200414T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0008.200413T1500Z-200414T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 40 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-120300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0006.200413T1300Z-200414T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0008.200413T1300Z-200414T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$
JLA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
143 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure nosing north from the Carolinas will provide most of
the region with fair dry weather for Saturday...then conditions will
deteriorate for the second half of the weekend and particular for
the start of the new work week. The greatest concern will be a
powerful storm system that will pass by to our west on Monday. For
this of year...this once in a 20 to 30 year storm will have the
potential to generate winds of 60 to 70 mph for parts of western New
York Monday afternoon and night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An axis of high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes at midnight will
help to maintain a chilly northwest flow over our region through
daybreak. While most areas will experience partly cloudy skies...
H85 temps of -8c within the Canadian airmass will support some
nuisance lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario. There
can even be minor accumulations of up to an inch over parts of
eastern Wayne...northern Cayuga and southern Oswego counties.

After daybreak...the aforementioned axis of high pressure will
gradually push to the east across our forecast area. This will bring
an end to the residual light snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario
by mid morning Saturday with partly to mostly sunny skies
characterizing the remainder of the day across the region. Weak warm
advection and subtle hgt rises will combine with the sunshine to
allow temperatures to rebound into the mid and upper 40s across the
western counties...while slightly cooler conditions will persist
across the North Country. While still breezy at times...we can
anticipate notably less wind than what we experienced on Friday when
winds gusted in excess of 40 mph.

Conditions will start to deteriorate Saturday night...as a weak
shortwave riding across the top of a flat mid level ridge will cross
the Lower Great Lakes. Somewhat stronger warm advection in the lower
levels will enable a weak baroclinic zone to become established...
and as a strengthening 35kt low level jet impinges upon this weak
semblance of a warm front...clouds will increase across our area.
While a rain or wet snow shower cannot be ruled out for just about
anywhere in our forecast area after midnight...the highest chance
will be under the axis of the aforementioned LLJ...which will
generally be over/near Lakes Erie and Ontario. The vast majority of
the night though will be pcpn free.

On Sunday...ongoing cyclogenesis over the southern Plains will
amplify the aforementioned ridge over the Lower Great Lakes. This
will push the elevated warm front from the previous night northwards
to Lake Ontario...although the axis of the 35kt low level jet will
remain over the western counties of the state. The result will be a
wealth of clouds and possibly a few light showers...although the day
will be defined by notably higher temperatures. Model consensus
suggests that H85 temps will climb to about +6c for the western
counties...which would support afternoon temperatures within a few
degrees of 60. The milder weather will be assisted by a southerly
breeze that will add a couple degrees of downsloping warmth to areas
north of the NYS Thruway between BUF and SYR. The southerly flow
will also effectively cancel any attempt for cooling lake breezes
outside of Grand Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Damaging Winds possible northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario
Monday afternoon and evening...

There remains a potential for damaging winds on Monday, with the
greatest risk northeast of Lake Erie, including the Niagara Frontier
and Buffalo metro area. Damaging winds may also impact the Lake Erie
shoreline, the Rochester metro area, and Jefferson County. Model
consensus continues to rapidly intensify low pressure as it tracks
up the Mississippi River Valley and across central Michigan on
Monday morning. Minor differences in strength and track, with a
consensus track and strength (about 972 mb) more then enough to pose
a high wind threat for our region. Strongest winds for the Niagara
Frontier will be Monday afternoon in the wake of a strong cold
front. NAM/GFS both increase 925mb winds to 65 to 70 knots, which
supports a potential for gusts to reach 70 mph at the surface
across the Niagara Frontier. This may be a situation where the
strongest winds are 5 to 10 miles north and east of Lake Erie,
since the air mass will be warmer than lake temperature there
could be a stabilizing effect near the lake. Even so, it still
will be very windy in downtown Buffalo, and the strongest winds
may come closer to sunset after cooler air moves in. A similar
story plays out northeast of Lake Ontario, but timing will be
focused on Monday evening. Also, the surface low will be further
from Jefferson County, so wind gusts may not be quite as strong
even though there is still a risk for damaging winds. Lapse
rates will be nearly 7 deg c/km through the height of the low
level jet and a distinct dry slot should encourage enough
clearing for added diurnal mixing late Monday afternoon. MEX
still shows sustained winds of around 40 knots at BUF/IAG. Based
on all of this, have issued a High Wind Watch northeast of the
lakes Monday into Monday night.

Monday will be a very windy day across the entire region. Gusts to
50 mph are possible across interior sections, and it's not out of
the question that these areas will need wind headlines also. Gusty
downslope winds are also expected off the Chautauqua ridge and Tug
Hill/Adirondacks Sunday night into Monday morning. These appear to
be in the advisory range, with localized gusts to 50 mph.

An intense southern stream shortwave will continue to support strong
cyclogenesis over the Ohio Valley and mid western states Sunday
night...as a somewhat broad 992mb sfc low will track northeast and
deepen to roughly 982mb by the time it reaches Lower Michigan by
daybreak Monday morning. An impressive low level jet racing
northwards ahead of the strengthening cyclone will impinge a
second warm frontal boundary that will push across our region
during the course of the night. The associated lift will
guarantee a widespread soaking rain over our forecast
area...particularly during the second half of the night.
Temperatures may drop off slightly Sunday evening, but will rise
late in the night - especially across the lake plains due to
downsloping.

There may even be a few thunderstorms across southern sections as
the front pushes through. Any such thunderstorm will carry the risk
of transporting damaging winds to the surface. Steady rain will
taper off to scattered showers Monday afternoon.

Winds will diminish some Monday night, but it still will be windy,
especially northeast of the lakes. Cyclonic flow aloft and the upper
level low passing by to the north will support some showers.
Initially these will be rain showers, but as it cools these will mix
with and change to snow later in the night. Expect the strong flow
will increase mixing and diminish the potential for more widespread
snow showers as 850mb temperatures drop to around -9C.

Tight pressure gradient will finally relax later in the day Tuesday,
but expect it to continue to be windy through at least mid-day with
gusts 40 to 45 mph possible. It will be cool, with scattered rain or
snow showers east and northeast of the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A chilly weather pattern will continue through the latter half of
the week, with below normal temperatures and a chance for rain or
snow showers. A weak high pressure ridge should keep us dry Tuesday
night, while also providing good radiational cooling conditions with
lows in the mid to upper 20s.

After this, there will be a broad cyclonic flow aloft, with a pair
of shortwaves forecast to move across the area. Model consensus
brings the first across Wednesday night, and a second weaker one on
Friday. 850 mb temperatures drop down to about -10c, which is cold
enough to support lake enhanced snow showers. With limited moisture,
not expecting significant accumulations, but there will be a
persistent threat of snow showers...especially across higher
terrain. Hedge below model temperature guidance due to model
agreement on colder than normal airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure nosing northward from the Carolinas will provide our
region with fair VFR weather through the TAF period. The only
exception will be some MVFR lake induced cloud cover southeast of
Lake Ontario early this morning. This would only be an issue for
smaller fields such as KFZY. Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday night...MVFR in rain.
Monday...MVFR in rain early then VFR and becoming extremely windy.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge will gradually push across the Lower Great Lakes on
Saturday. This will allow for generally moderate westerlies on
Lake Erie and the western portion of Lake Ontario...while fresh
winds will maintain nominal SCA conditions from Hamlin Beach to
the Thousand Islands.

Looking further ahead, another round of gale force winds is likely
Monday and Monday night as an intense sfc low will pass to the west
and north of the region.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strong storm system will pass to the west and north of the
region on Monday and Monday night, resulting in strong winds
across the lower Great Lakes. This has the potential to cause a
seiche with lake shore flooding possible along the Lake Erie
shoreline. This southwesterly flow will also generate wave
action on Lake Ontario, which may cause lakeshore flooding from
Cayuga to Jefferson counties. Added this potential to the HWO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday
     night for NYZ007.
     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
         LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Apffel/RSH
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel/RSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Apffel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
645 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

NYZ004-008-013-014-020-021-112245-
Wayne-Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
645 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strengthening storm system has the potential to produce strong
wind gusts on Monday. The track and strength of the storm will
determine how strong the winds are, but there is at least a potential
for wind gusts of 60 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-112245-
Jefferson-
645 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

The combination of high lake levels and wave action may result in
lakeshore flooding Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-011-012-112245-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-
645 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-006-112245-
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
645 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The combination of high lake levels and wave action may result in
lakeshore flooding Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-019-085-112245-
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
645 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

Strong winds will result in elevated lake levels with the potential
a potential for lakeshore flooding on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-112245-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
645 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Gale force winds will also be possible on Monday and Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ024-112245-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
645 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Saint Lawrence
River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Gale force winds will also be possible on Monday and Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel