Gale Watch 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

710 
WHUS71 KBUF 171203
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
703 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

LOZ045-172015-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200117T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.200119T0600Z-200119T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
703 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-172015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200117T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.200119T0600Z-200119T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
703 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 10 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 6 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 AM EST this 
  morning. For the Gale Watch, from late Saturday night through 
  Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-172015-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.200119T0000Z-200119T1400Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
703 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-172015-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.200119T0300Z-200119T2000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
703 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-172015-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.200119T0600Z-200119T2300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
703 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

575 
WHUS71 KBUF 171506
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1006 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

LOZ043-044-172315-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200117T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.200119T0600Z-200119T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1006 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-172315-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.200119T0000Z-200119T1400Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1006 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-172315-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.200119T0300Z-200119T2000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
1006 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ045-063>065-172315-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0003.200119T0600Z-200119T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1006 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  the Saint Lawrence River, and the nearshore waters of Lake 
  Ontario from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

267 
WHUS71 KBUF 171838
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
138 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

LEZ040-041-180245-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0009.200118T1200Z-200118T2300Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0003.200119T0000Z-200119T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0004.200118T2300Z-200119T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
138 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds to 35 knots and waves 
  10 to 13 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, south 
  winds to 30 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST 
  Sunday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 7 AM to 6 PM EST 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-180245-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0003.200119T0300Z-200119T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0004.200119T0400Z-200119T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
138 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-180245-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0003.200119T0600Z-200119T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0004.200119T0700Z-200119T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
138 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from 
  Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-180245-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0009.200118T2000Z-200119T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
138 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
151 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers will slowly tapering off through the
afternoon. Clearing skies through the day today before increasing
clouds from west to east tonight ahead of the next storm. The
next area of low pressure causes a mixture of snow, sleet and
rain for Saturday, before a transition to lake effect on Sunday.
Cooling temperatures from Sunday through the middle of next
week will bring daytime highs below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake effect snow currently south of Lake Ontario with mostly light
snow. Brief moderate snow earlier that extended southeast from
Niagara County to northern Wyoming County is now weakening;
this snow briefly became better organized but the upstream
portion is quickly eroding and radar reflectivity near the lake
is very light to none. Satellite is also supporting this as
there is virtually no cloud cover coming from over the lake. A
lake band with light snow extends from the Georgian Bay
southeast across Southern Erie and into the Western Southern
Tier, this too is becoming less organized with time. Expecting
light lake snow to continue from Orleans to Oswego County with
northwest winds off of Lake Ontario. Temperatures currently in
the mid teens to near 20 south of Lake Ontario and in the single
digits east of Lake Ontario where cloud cover is breaking up.

This morning, expecting lake response to continue to slowly weaken
as high pressure moves into the area causing lowering equilibrium
heights through the day today. The main driving force with the lake
snows still present is either/both the upstream connection to the
Georgian Bay, or low level moisture still present. Snow amounts
should generally be only around a half inch in areas of lake effect
snow, areas across the higher terrain near Lake Erie may see around
an inch as orographic lift helps increase snow amounts a bit. Low
temperatures this morning are expected to dip to the upper single
digits to low teens south of Lake Ontario and to around 0 to -5
degrees east of Lake Ontario.

Lake effect snow will taper off today as low level moisture
decreases into the afternoon. Light snow south of Lake Ontario will
last the longest as moisture from the lake will feed the snow a bit
longer than what would normally be expected with the lack of
synoptic moisture and the approaching high pressure with increased
ridging. Warm air advection today will also really begin to cutoff
the lake response as 850H temps warm from an early morning low of
around -18C to an afternoon reading of around -9C. Snow amounts
today will only be a few tenths through the early afternoon. Areas
downwind of the lakes and outside of the light snow will see a
decrease in clouds through the day with mostly sunny skies by the
late afternoon for most areas. Unfortunately though, the sun will
be misleading and daytime high temperatures will only be in the
upper teens to near 20 south of Lake Ontario and in the upper single
digits to low teens east of Lake Ontario. These expected
temperatures today will be the coldest of the season for some areas.

Tonight, mostly clear skies to start the evening will begin to
increase in cloud coverage from west to east through the night as an
area of low pressure approaches the Great Lakes and its warm front
approaches the area through the night. By daybreak light snow will
be near the far western portion of the area with likely POPs making
it into Chautauqua County a little before sunrise. Early low
temperatures will be in the single digits to low teens south of Lake
Ontario and in the -5 to -10 degree range east of Lake Ontario.
Temperatures will slowly warm through the night as warm air
advection increases across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday through Saturday night a potent mid level trough will
quickly swing out of the Central Plains, across the Great Lakes,
and into New England. A surface low will reach Lower Michigan
Saturday afternoon before moving just north of Lake Ontario
Saturday night. A period of strong warm advection/isentropic
upglide will combine with strong DPVA ahead of the mid level
trough to produce a period of widespread precipitation Saturday.
This will develop by early to mid morning across Western NY,
reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region by early afternoon. The
steadiest precipitation tied to the warm advection regime will
move east of the area Saturday night, to be replaced by
occasional, weaker forcing from passing shortwaves and also
upslope flow developing east of the lakes. From late Saturday
evening through the overnight, the majority of the precipitation
will focus across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario, and
to some extent the higher terrain east of Lake Erie.

Precipitation type remains a challenge given the poor model
agreement on the magnitude of a potential warm layer aloft. The 12Z
NAM is most aggressive with the warm layer, while the GFS and ECMWF
generally keep temperatures aloft below freezing. Given the track of
the low to our north and west, pattern recognition would suggest at
least some warm air aloft should reach Western NY Saturday afternoon
and evening. Temperatures at the surface will also warm above
freezing later Saturday afternoon and evening, especially on the
lake plains of Western NY. Given these expectations, expect
everything to begin as snow Saturday. Some sleet, and possibly a
brief period of freezing rain may mix in Saturday afternoon and
early evening from the Genesee Valley westward. Precipitation will
likely change to just plain rain for a few hours on the lake plains
of Western NY late Saturday afternoon and evening as the boundary
layer warms above freezing, with the longest period of rain and
above freezing temperatures close to Lake Erie. Meanwhile east of
Lake Ontario, temperatures aloft and at the surface will stay cold
enough to support mainly snow.

As far as snow amounts go, expect 1-3 inches of accumulation in most
locations Saturday. Amounts closer to 3 inches are likely if no
mixing occurs, and closer to 1 inch if we get more in the way of
sleet. A few locations east of Lake Ontario may see around 4 inches
by late Saturday afternoon. Saturday night widespread precipitation
will end with most of the lower elevation locations from the Finger
Lakes westward seeing less than an inch of additional accumulation.
The higher terrain east of Lake Erie may pick up a few inches,
mainly late Saturday night as westerly upslope and lake enhancement
begin. Snow will be a little more persistent east of Lake Ontario,
with additional amounts of 2-4 inches possible, greatest across
higher terrain.

On Sunday the surface low will move down the Saint Lawrence Valley,
eventually yielding to secondary triple point cyclogenesis near
downeast Maine. The main mid level trough axis will cross the
eastern Great Lakes, providing some large scale forcing for ascent.
By the time we get to Sunday, the majority of the focus for snowfall
will evolve into orographic and lake enhancement. Steady cold
advection through the day will yield increasing lake instability,
with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to around 10K feet. The
increasing lake instability will work cooperatively with increasing
westerly upslope flow east of the lakes.

The deepest synoptic scale moisture and best overall setup will be
east of Lake Ontario, with westerly flow targeting the Tug Hill. The
heaviest snow from this event will likely fall Sunday from this
weekend event, with significant additional accumulations (greater
than 6 inches) possible on the Tug Hill through the day, and
moderate accumulations for surrounding lower elevations. East of
Lake Erie, synoptic scale moisture is not quite as deep, but should
still be supportive of at least moderate accumulations across higher
terrain. Outside of the lake enhanced areas, only expect an inch or
two at most on Sunday.

Sunday night a secondary cold front will cross the eastern Great
Lakes, with some additional moisture and convergence. This will
produce fairly widespread snow showers across most of the region.
Westerly flow will veer northwesterly with the passage of the
trough, taking lake effect/upslope snows east of the lakes and
spreading them out to the southeast of the lakes. This will increase
the areal coverage of lake effect snow, but also decrease the
intensity as boundary layer winds end their alignment with the long
axis of the lakes. Expect additional light to moderate accumulations
overnight.

Finally, the surface low tracking just north of the lakes is a
classic setup for strong winds in our region. Model guidance over
the past day has trended a little weaker with the surface low, and
also weaker with winds aloft. By the time lapse rates become steep
enough to allow for deep mixing later Saturday night, wind speeds
aloft are barely 50 knots. Bufkit momentum transfer schemes suggest
a period of advisory gusts in the typical locations from the Lake
Erie shore northeast across the Niagara Frontier to Rochester
Saturday night through early Sunday morning with gusts up to 50 mph.
A very brief period of 50 mph winds are possible in Jefferson County
as well Sunday morning. Through the rest of Sunday, it will remain
windy, but more on the order of 30-40 mph gusts. This will result in
blowing and drifting snow, although by the time temperatures become
colder to support light/fluffy snow later Sunday afternoon and
evening, wind speeds will drop further.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northwest flow and an additional trough passage Monday and Monday
night will continue to support fairly widespread lake effect snow
showers southeast of the lakes with some additional accumulations
likely. Northwest flow lake effect snow showers will continue
through Tuesday as a very cold airmass crosses the eastern Great
Lakes. Expect several days of highs in the teens to low 20s and lows
in the teens to single numbers (below zero east of Lake Ontario)
from Tuesday through Wednesday. Lake effect snow showers will
finally shut down by Wednesday night as the coldest air aloft moves
away, and surface high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes.

Later next week the cold air will steadily retreat back into Canada,
with temperatures warming back closer to average Thursday with
mainly dry weather. Looking a little farther ahead, it appears the
cold/wintry pattern will relax at least temporarily, with all
operational model guidance supporting a return to above normal
temperatures again by Friday and Saturday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For all TAF sites, except ART where skies are starting clear, expect
sct to broken MVFR cigs to persist the rest of the early morning in
a gusty, but diminishing, north to northwest sfc flow. Lake effect
snow showers and flurries will be scattered about the area. The best
chance of vsby restrictions blo MVFR will occur at JHW, but even
these should be relatively brief.

Today, expect lighter winds with conditions gradually improving by
afternoon as low clouds and lingering light snow and flurries
finally scatter out.

Tonight, increasing clouds through the night ahead of the next
system, but should be primarily VFR.

Outlook...

Saturday...Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR from west to east with snow,
possibly changing to a wintry mix across Western NY.
Sunday and Tuesday...MVFR/IFR due to lake effect snows and blowing
snow east of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest flow will maintain small craft conditions on portions of
the lakes through the morning. Lighter northerly flow will continue
later today as high pressure settles toward the lower Great Lakes.
Approaching low pressure will increase southerly flow on
Saturday, but as a trailing cold front passes Saturday night,
westerly gales are becoming increasingly possible. Gale watches
may be necessary in the near future.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ004>006.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ006-
     008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this
         morning for LOZ030-042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...JLA/SW
MARINE...Fries/SW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1032 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

NYZ001>003-011-180345-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-
1032 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Deep low pressure will move across the region this weekend. This
system will produce widespread accumulating snow on Saturday and
strong winds Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Several inches
of accumulation is expected Saturday. Winds may gust to 50 mph later
Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-180345-
Northern Erie-
1032 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Deep low pressure will move across the region this weekend. This
system will produce widespread accumulating snow on Saturday and
strong winds Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Several inches
of accumulation is expected Saturday. Winds may gust to 50 mph later
Saturday night and early Sunday morning. The strong winds may also
result in lakeshore flooding along the Lake Erie shore.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-180345-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1032 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Deep low pressure will move across the region this weekend. This
system will produce widespread accumulating snow on Saturday and
strong winds Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Several inches
of accumulation is expected Saturday. Winds may gust to 50 mph later
Saturday night and early Sunday morning. The strong winds may also
result in lakeshore flooding along the Lake Erie shore.

Additional snow is expected Sunday and Sunday night as lake effect
snow develops. Moderate to heavy additional accumulations are
possible across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-180345-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
1032 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Deep low pressure will move across the region this weekend. This
system will produce widespread accumulating snow on Saturday and
strong winds Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Several inches
of accumulation is expected Saturday. Winds may gust to 50 mph later
Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

Additional snow is expected Sunday and Sunday night as lake effect
snow develops. Moderate to heavy additional accumulations are
possible across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-014-021-180345-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
1032 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Deep low pressure will move across the region this weekend. This
system will produce widespread accumulating snow on Saturday and
strong winds Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Several inches
of accumulation is expected Saturday. Winds may gust to 40 mph later
Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-180345-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
1032 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Deep low pressure will move across the region this weekend. This
system will produce widespread accumulating snow on Saturday and
strong winds Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Several inches
of accumulation is expected Saturday. Winds may gust to 45 mph later
Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-180345-
Jefferson-
1032 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Deep low pressure will move across the region this weekend. This
system will produce widespread accumulating snow on Saturday and
Saturday night, and a brief period of strong winds early Sunday
morning with gusts up to 50 mph. Additional snow is expected Sunday
and Sunday night as lake effect snow develops. Significant snow
accumulations are possible Saturday afternoon through Sunday night,
with the greatest totals across higher terrain where over a foot of
snow is possible.

Strong west winds later Saturday night and Sunday may result in
lakeshore flooding at the east end of Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-180345-
Oswego-
1032 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

Deep low pressure will move across the region this weekend. This
system will produce widespread accumulating snow on Saturday and
Saturday night, and a brief period of strong winds early Sunday
morning with gusts up to 50 mph. Additional snow is expected Sunday
and Sunday night as lake effect snow develops. Significant snow
accumulations are possible Saturday afternoon through Sunday night,
with the greatest totals across higher terrain of the Tug Hill where
over a foot of snow is possible.

Strong west winds later Saturday night and Sunday may result in
lakeshore flooding at the east end of Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-180345-
Lewis-
1032 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

Deep low pressure will move across the region this weekend. This
system will produce widespread accumulating snow on Saturday and
Saturday night, and a brief period of strong winds early Sunday
morning with gusts up to 50 mph. Additional snow is expected Sunday
and Sunday night as lake effect snow develops. Significant snow
accumulations are possible Saturday afternoon through Sunday night,
with the greatest totals across higher terrain where over a foot of
snow is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-180345-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1032 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA