Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
745 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong thunderstorms over parts of the region this evening will give
way to scattered showers tonight as a series of fronts will push
through. After a transition day on Friday, mid-summer heat and
humidity can then be expected for the upcoming weekend. In fact,
heat advisories may be required for parts of the area by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
...Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening..

The well defined MCV that passed over Western New York early this
afternoon has weakened and exited east out of the North Country this
evening. This feature will push a series of weak fronts across our
region today. Of greater concern is the convection that has
blossomed this afternoon in the wake of the initial area of showers
and storms.

Greatest risk for strong to severe storms continues this evening.
Given the strong 0-1km shear and the approaching front, storms are
becoming linear as they move east toward Genesee valley and perhaps
western Finger Lakes/SE Lake Ontario region with gusty to damaging
winds the prime threat. Finally, the threat for torrential downpours
continue as PWATS surge to over 2 inches. Storms will be moving, so
would likely need to have training storms for larger flooding risk.

Expect clusters of diminishing thunderstorms to rumble toward the
North County through this evening while diminishing over WNY and
Genesee valley. Showers will diminish further overnight as cool and
moist air works in behind the front. Based on upstream trends behind
the low this morning, could see low stratus and fog later tonight
with dense fog possible in typically prone valleys of the Southern
Tier. Lows tonight in the mid 60s to around 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will continue to slowly work its way west to east across
the forecast region on Friday, pushing east of the region by mid
afternoon. Additionally, any remaining showers (and storms east of
Lake Ontario) will taper off in a similar manner. High temperatures
Friday will warm up into the low to mid 80s region wide.

In wake of the cold frontal passage, weak upper level ridging and
surface high pressure will be the dominating features Friday night
through Saturday night, providing dry weather during this time. Warm
air advection will begin to increase Saturday, which will increase
temperatures into the mid to upper 80s, with a few locations along
the Genesee Valley and Northern Finger Lakes regions reaching low
90s. While temperatures will be on the rise, humidity will remain
bearable. This should preclude the need for any heat headlines,
since heat indices should remain below the 95F threshold.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday will be the warmest day of the period, along with a marked
increase in humidity levels. The first half of the day should remain
dry, before the chance for a few showers and storms well ahead of an
approaching cold front will increase from northwest to southeast
across the region later in the afternoon lasting into the evening.
Though the major story of the day will be the heat and increased
humidity for the later half of the weekend. 850mb temperatures rise
up into the +20C over the region, which will act to increase
temperatures into the low to mid 90s across much of the lower
terrain south of Lake Ontario, with upper 80s elsewhere. The
combination of these temperatures and dewpoint temperatures rising
into the upper 60s and low 70s will LIKELY necessitate the need for
heat headlines across the Lake Plains, Genesee Valley and Finger
Lakes region as heat indices approach near 100F.

A better chance for showers and storms will come late Sunday/Sunday
night as a weak front crosses the region, sandwiching our area
between strong upper level ridging to the south and broad upper
level troughing across the upper Great Lakes and southeastern
Canada. In response, mid-level flow will strengthen, but with no
pronounced disturbances set to move through the upper level regime
the forecast will remain on the drier side. That said, the
combination of heat and humidity along with the stronger winds aloft
may be conducive enough to produce a few showers or storms from time
to time. This is especially the case during the afternoon and early
evening.

A sharper more pronounced upper level trough and associated surface
feature will approach the region from the Upper Great Lakes
Wednesday. This will bring a better chance for some showers and
storms for mid-week. Following this disturbance, a bubble of high
pressure will push across the Great Lakes and into our region for
Thursday.

Aside from this, heat and humidity will stick around however, the
values will be cooler than those of Sunday. Highs will generally
range in the low to mid 80s for much of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread showers and storms late this evening. Inside showers and
storms there are localized MVFR conditions, otherwise outside of
convection conditions are VFR. Some of the stronger storms are
producing very heavy rain and localized wind gusts over 40 kts.

In the wake of the convection, tonight will feature IFR to MVFR cigs.
The stronger storms will taper off to scattered showers from west to
east.

Outlook...

Friday...Becoming VFR. A chance of showers in the morning.
Saturday...VFR.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across Lake Ontario this
evening. The storms will have an elevated risk of producing strong
wind gusts.

A brief period of stronger winds are expected tonight. Though
southerly wind direction will be mainly offshore, wind speeds and
waves support Small Craft Advisory over nearshore waters of far
eastern Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
         Friday for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/RSH
NEAR TERM...EAJ/JLA/RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ/RSH
MARINE...EAJ/JLA/JM/RSH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
919 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-180130-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Southern Erie-
919 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly diminish tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-013-021-180130-
Monroe-Livingston-Allegany-
919 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly diminish tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>008-014-180130-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
919 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-043-062-063-180130-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
919 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ044-045-064-065-SLZ022-024-180130-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
919 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly diminish tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Reynolds

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N FOWLERVILLE         42.62N  78.71W
07/16/2020                   ERIE               NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES DOWN ON BOSTON ST RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF2000876

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
745 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOWANDA                 42.46N  78.94W
07/16/2020                   CATTARAUGUS        NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON GOWANDA STATE RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF2000877

AR

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