Wind Advisory 18, NWS Brownsville, TX

966 
WWUS74 KBRO 301731
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1131 AM CST Wed Dec 30 2020

TXZ251-254>257-351-302000-
/O.CON.KBRO.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-201230T2000Z/
Inland Kenedy-Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-
Coastal Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-
Including the cities of Sarita, Raymondville, Brownsville, 
Harlingen, Port Mansfield, Port Isabel, South Padre Island, 
Laguna Heights, and Laguna Vista
1131 AM CST Wed Dec 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds around 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Coastal Kenedy, Inland Kenedy, Inland Cameron, Inland 
  Willacy, Coastal Cameron and Coastal Willacy Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
405 AM CST Wed Dec 30 2020

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Latest GOES-16 WV satellite
imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over New Mexico.
Brownsville Radar currently shows some ongoing streamer showers
moving across the lower Texas coastal waters. Also, VAD Wind
Profile is indicating winds between 35 to 45 knots at 2000 feet
AGL early this morning.

Breezy to windy conditions are expected today, especially near the
coast, as the low-level jet mixes down to the surface. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy counties
from 10 am until 2 pm today. Otherwise, above normal temperatures
will continue today will highs in the low to mid 80s at most
locations under a mix of sun and clouds. Rain chances will increase
across the region later this afternoon into tonight as the 500 mb
trough across northwest Mexico moves eastward as a strong cut-off
low and surface low pressure develops across northeast Mexico.

The combination of these features and abundant moisture in place
will provide showers and elevated thunderstorms across the area
tonight ahead and along cold front. The Storm Prediction Center
/SPC/ has placed areas along the coast, Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy
counties, under a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. The main
threats with these storms will be damaging wind gusts. The cold
front and the associated surface low moves offshore the lower Texas
coast Thursday morning and the 500mb low moves into southwest Texas
Thursday morning. Much cooler air filters into the northern
ranchlands and Rio Grande Valley in the wake of the front late
tonight into Thursday. Some elevated convection will be possible
behind the front during the morning but this is expected to quickly
end in the morning due to strong subsidence. Breezy to windy
conditions in the wake of the front may support Wind Advisories near
the coast on Thursday. Lows tonight, depending on the timing of the
front, will generally range from the mid 40s to upper 40s across the
west to the low to mid 50s near the coast. Highs on Thursday will
mainly be in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): Precipitation will
push off to the east by Thursday evening while the pressure
gradient across the CWA begins to weaken, allowing for winds to
follow suit. A chilly morning is then expected to start 2021 with
lows ranging from the middle 30s in the northern ranchlands to the
middle 40s in the lower RGV. Another quick-moving mid-level
shortwave will swing through the area on Friday afternoon and
evening, bringing another weak cold front across the area
overnight which will act mainly as a reinforcing shot of cooler
air. Rain chances look relatively minimal with the weaker Friday
night/Saturday morning front due to lack of moisture return flow.
Saturday night low temperatures will also be fairly chilly
especially compared to seasonal normals. By Sunday we will begin
to see return flow set back up across the area, allowing for
temperatures to warm back up to near seasonal normals to start the
new work week. From Monday evening onward there is a bit of
discrepancy between the models’ respective interpretations of
the mid-level patterns heading into the middle of next week. There
is some moderate agreement on increased rain chances for most of
the CWA Tuesday, with the timing of any precipitation very much up
in the air. Have increased some PoPs as a result, and will
continue to monitor for additional details.

&&

.MARINE (Now through Thursday): Radar images continue to indicate
a few streamer showers moving across the lower Texas Gulf waters
this morning. A strong pressure gradient will continue across the
western Gulf of Mexico today ahead of an approaching cold front.
Moderate to strong south-southeast winds will prevail across the
lower Texas coastal waters today with Small Craft Advisories in
effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf waters. Showers and
thunderstorms, some possibly strong, will develop across the
coastal waters tonight into early Thursday morning with the
approach of a strong cold front.

In addition, Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Laguna
today and Gulf waters today and tonight due to the strong south to
southeast winds. Strong to very strong offshore flow will develop
across the marine area in the wake of the front. A Gale Watch
remains in effect for the lower Texas Gulf waters for Thursday.

Thursday Night through Tuesday: Strong winds will be ongoing over
much of the coastal waters in the wake of Thursday’s strong cold
front. Gale-force winds will subside Thursday evening, with Small
Craft Advisories likely needed through around midday Friday due
to elevated seas. Seas then briefly subside Friday before
northerly flow sets up behind another weak cold front. Persistent
northerly flow will favor some building seas before the surface
flow weakens later Saturday night into Sunday. Onshore flow then
sets in for Sunday and remains in place through the end of the
period. Persistent southerly to southeasterly flow may favor some
building seas early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  52  66  45 /  30  70  60   0
BROWNSVILLE          83  53  67  44 /  30  70  50   0
HARLINGEN            83  51  66  41 /  30  70  50   0
MCALLEN              85  51  66  43 /  20  70  30   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      87  48  64  40 /  20  70  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  56  66  52 /  30  70  70   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this afternoon
     for TXZ251-254>257-351.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this
     afternoon for GMZ130-132-135.

     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Thursday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63-KC...Short Term/Aviation
55-Adams...Long Term/Upper Air

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
415 PM CST Tue Dec 29 2020

TXZ248>257-351-353-302215-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
415 PM CST Tue Dec 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a high risk of rip currents at local beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Elevated rip current risks at local beaches will continue through
the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-302215-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
415 PM CST Tue Dec 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect on the lower Texas coastal
waters from 0 to 60 nm offshore through Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Small Craft Advisories continue for the lower Texas coastal waters
out to 60 nm through 6 PM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisories will likely be extended through Thursday
Night. Gale force wind gusts may be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday.

A Gale Watch is in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for the lower Texas coastal waters from 0 to 60 nm
offshore.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.