Wind Advisory 10, NWS Brownsville, TX

937 
WWUS74 KBRO 192213
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
513 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

TXZ254>257-192315-
/O.EXP.KBRO.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-200319T2200Z/
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Including the cities of Raymondville, Brownsville, Harlingen, 
Port Mansfield, Port Isabel, South Padre Island, Laguna Heights, 
and Laguna Vista
513 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Surface observations indicate that winds are beginning to ease
within Cameron and Willacy Counties at this time. As a result, 
the Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire. 

However, residents and motorists within those two counties can
expect breezy winds until sunset, with winds rapidly diminishing
during the overnight hours. 

$$

TOMASELLI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
613 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR conditions with breezy southeasterly winds give
way to VFR ceilings and gusty southeasterly winds mid to late
morning through this afternoon. Gusts may reach 28 to 30 kts at
times at HRL and BRO. A cold front approaches into Friday,
diminishing breezy winds near the end of the TAF period and
bringing back MVFR to brief IFR ceilings after midnight toward
daybreak Friday. The chance of rain increases west to east tonight
into Friday as well, with most activity generally staying west of
MFE into tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): The 500mb low continues heading
northeast from the Desert SW into the Plains by this afternoon and
off into the Great Lakes region on Friday, keeping warm and strong
southwesterly flow aloft across Texas. At the surface, low pressure
continues to sit across northern Mexico and deepens across the
Plains before heading northeast, maintaining the strengthened
pressure gradient across the lower Texas coast and moderate to at
times strong southeasterly flow. A cold front drags the surface low
across northern Mexico across Deep South Texas on Friday, bringing
increased rain chances and cooler temperatures and potentially
stalling across the CWA.

Wind gusts Wednesday afternoon once again reached 35 mph and higher.
With little change to the pattern, expect similar wind gusts today.
Have bumped up winds and wind gusts slightly again along the lower
valley and eastern counties to fall more in line with what has been
observed. Have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory across the bay as
well, but held off on a Wind Advisory for now, with observations on
Wednesday falling just below criteria for most of the afternoon.

With drier air aloft today, have kept highs up a degree or two for
most locations from yesterday. CAMs once again show showers and
thunderstorms developing across western counties early tonight and
rain chances picking up as the front approaches into Friday. CAPE
values across Zapata once again expand to over 1500 j/kg with bulk
shear values topping 50 kts and lapse rates of 6-7 C/km. The cap
held overnight and may mostly hold again this evening across the
RGV. Kept POPs below 30 percent out west for this evening and
tonight.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): An elongated 500 mb
short wave will move over TX and the South Central Plains States
Fri and Fri Night. This will push a cold front into Deep South TX
and the RGV Fri Night with the cold front stalling just south of
or on top of the the region late Fri into Sat. After the 500 mb
short wave exits the region, the 500 mb pattern over the southern
States will become pretty zonal into Sat and Sun. This will allow
the old frontal boundary to slide back northwards as a warm front
on Sun and Mon. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the potential for
some coastal surface troffing along the old frontal boundary which
will also help enhance the conv potential a bit through Sat Night.
After Sat, the 500 mb ridging will then steadily build over Mex
and southern TX from Sun through Wed. This will result in
steadily warming temps and a drier/more stable airmass over the
region next week. The potential for highs near or above the 100
mark will increase across the western counties mainly for Wed and
Thurs with 90s expected everywhere else.

The ECMWF and GFS model 500 mb fields are in very good agreement
this morning. Run to run consistency with both models is pretty
decent also. However, both models have trended a bit warmer for
the fropa this weekend due to somewhat weaker CAA.

Overall forecast confidence today for the longer range wording is
above average.

MARINE (Now through Friday): Southeasterly onshore flow continues
today as high pressure remains parked off the Southeast US Atlantic
coast. A cold front brings northerly winds across the lower Texas
coastal waters on Friday. Expect light to moderate seas to continue
through today with Small Craft Advisory conditions across the Laguna
Madre this afternoon due to elevated winds and Small Craft Caution
across the nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisories may be needed
across offshore waters tonight.

Friday Night through Monday Night: The Gulf winds and seas with
the approach and passage of the cold front may increase enough due
to the strengthening PGF to possibly get close to SCA levels Fri
Night and Sat. The PGF will then weaken from Sat Night through Mon
Night as the old frontal boundary moves northwards away from the
region. This will allow for a return of more benign winds and seas
next week with E-SE winds prevailing.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ130-132-135.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

56/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
412 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

TXZ248>257-351-353-200915-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
412 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches of
South Padre Island and Boca Chica Beach.

A Wind Advisory may be needed across the lower RGV and coastal
counties this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the beaches of
South Padre Island and Boca Chica Beach Friday into Sunday, and
again on Tuesday.

Heat Index values above 100 degrees are possible across the mid to
upper RGV Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-200915-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
412 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect across the Laguna Madre from
10 AM CDT to 7 PM CDT.

Small Craft Advisories may be needed along the lower Texas Gulf
of Mexico waters this afternoon into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Small Craft Advisories may be needed along lower Texas Gulf of
Mexico waters on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
936 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

TXZ255-257-191700-
Inland Cameron-Coastal Cameron-
Including the cities of Brownsville, Harlingen, Port Isabel,
South Padre Island, Laguna Heights, and Laguna Vista
936 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...

Strong south to southeasterly winds just above the surface are
being mixed down to ground-level, mainly in Cameron County, this
morning. Expect wind speeds of 20 to 30 miles per hour, with gusts
up to 35 miles per hour, especially in the Harlingen vicinity. If
these winds continue to increase, a Wind Advisory will be issued.

Be sure to secure light weight objects, such as lawn furniture and
trash cans. Additionally, drivers of high profile vehicles are
urged to drive with caution, especially if driving on east to west
highways, flyovers, bridges, and causeways.

53-Schroeder