Special Weather Statement, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
257 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...

Mid-level ridging over Texas will support a fairly subsident
airmass. At the surface, broad high pressure across the northeast
Gulf of Mexico will maintain a moisture southeast flow.
Brownsville radar currently indicates some ongoing convection
across portions of Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy Counties and across
the Gulf waters. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
diminish later this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Late
tonight, coastal convection is expected to develop across the
Gulf waters with some activity moving inland before sunrise. Ample
moisture between the surface to above 850mb and daytime heating
should support another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area the Friday. Brief heavy downpours
will once again be possible with any activity. Low temperatures
tonight and Friday night are expected to be mainly in the 70s.
High temperatures Friday will range from the upper 80s at the
beaches, low to mid 90s inland and near 100 degrees across Starr
and Zapata counties.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

Weak mid/upper level ridging aloft will prevail across the CWA on
Saturday. As a result, mostly dry conditions will prevail through
Saturday. By Sunday and Monday, the synoptic pattern begins to
change. A positive tilted mid/upper trough axis begins to develop
from northern Mexico through the CWA and into Louisiana. This
trough axis is expected to strenghten through the remainder of
the forecast period. There may even be an eventual surface
reflection by Thursday across the CWA. If so, then this would
increase the potential for heavy rain even more so. The moistening
trend has been consistent with much of the guidance, especially
the ECMWF and its ensembles. Am concerned with the potential for a
heavy rain event towards the end of the period given the slow
moving nature of the mid/upper trough axis anchored across the CWA
and the ample moisture advection into the CWA. PWATs as high as
2.4 inches may be possible as advection of moisture originating
from the southern Gulf of Mexico is tapped. The ECMWF Ensemble
Mean QPF was statistically significant as far as model climatology
goes. The GEFS and GFS were drier but have been trending wetter.
With all of this said, will bump up POPs several categories from
the prior forecast, especially towards the latter part of the
period.

Will show the peak of the warming trend early in the period before
clouds and increased rain chances "cool" things down to eventually
slightly below normal once again by midweek.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight through Friday Night...Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast
winds around 12 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas
slightly over 3.6 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 1350 CDT/1850
UTC. Moderate southeast flow will continue as a broad surface
high pressure remains centered across the northeast Gulf. The
pressure gradient is expected to strengthen along the lower Texas
coast on Friday. Small craft will likely need to exercise caution
on the Laguna Madre and the nearshore Gulf waters on Friday.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will also be possible
through the period with better chances in the early morning and
overnight.

Saturday through Thursday...Increasing thermal and pressure
gradient will produce at least caution conditions for Sunday
through Tuesday across the Laguna Madre. Borderline advisory
conditions at least for the northern Laguna Madre will be possible
during this same timeframe. Caution conditions due to increasing
seas/swells will be possible by Tuesday. Generally moderate
onshore flow will prevail for the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  79  91 /  20  20  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  92  80  93 /  20  20  20  10
HARLINGEN            77  92  77  93 /  20  30  10  20
MCALLEN              78  94  79  95 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  97  77  99 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  85  81  86 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63/80

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