Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Brownsville, TX

308 
WWUS54 KBRO 250516
SVSBRO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1216 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

TXC047-215-261-489-250545-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-200525T0545Z/
Kenedy TX-Hidalgo TX-Brooks TX-Willacy TX-
1216 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KENEDY...NORTHEASTERN HIDALGO...SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS
AND NORTHWESTERN WILLACY COUNTIES...

At 1216 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Rudolph, or 14
miles south of Armstrong, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Raymondville, Armstrong, Port Mansfield, Hargill, Rachal, Lasara, San
Manuel, Linn, San Perlita and Red Gate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Brownsville.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 2653 9742 2640 9803 2652 9818 2689 9817
      2708 9748 2690 9746 2700 9756 2695 9755
      2695 9756 2689 9746 2689 9747 2679 9751
      2677 9749 2684 9746 2660 9743 2663 9745
      2660 9745 2656 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 245DEG 27KT 2671 9783 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Hallman

901 
WWUS54 KBRO 250535
SVSBRO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1235 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

TXC047-215-261-489-250545-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-200525T0545Z/
Kenedy TX-Hidalgo TX-Brooks TX-Willacy TX-
1235 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KENEDY...NORTHEASTERN HIDALGO...SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS
AND NORTHWESTERN WILLACY COUNTIES...

At 1234 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Norias, or 12
miles southeast of Armstrong, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Raymondville, Armstrong, Hargill, Port Mansfield, Lasara, San
Perlita, Kenedy County Wind Farms, Norias, Port Mansfield Chamber Of
Commerce and Reber Memorial Library.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Brownsville.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 2653 9742 2640 9803 2662 9801 2692 9805
      2708 9748 2690 9746 2700 9756 2695 9755
      2695 9756 2689 9746 2689 9747 2679 9751
      2677 9749 2684 9746 2660 9743 2663 9745
      2660 9745 2656 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0534Z 245DEG 27KT 2677 9769 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Hallman

299 
WWUS54 KBRO 250538
SVSBRO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1238 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

TXC047-215-261-489-250547-
/O.EXP.KBRO.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-200525T0545Z/
Kenedy TX-Hidalgo TX-Brooks TX-Willacy TX-
1238 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KENEDY...
NORTHEASTERN HIDALGO...SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS AND NORTHWESTERN WILLACY
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Brownsville.

LAT...LON 2653 9742 2640 9803 2662 9801 2692 9805
      2708 9748 2690 9746 2700 9756 2695 9755
      2695 9756 2689 9746 2689 9747 2679 9751
      2677 9749 2684 9746 2660 9743 2663 9745
      2660 9745 2656 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 245DEG 27KT 2678 9767 

$$

Hallman

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
721 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for
Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr and Brooks counties from now until
Midnight CDT. Potential threats include large hail up to the size
of limes, damaging wind gusts of up to 70 MPH, as well as
localized flooding.

Current mesoanalysis shows little to no capping inversion in the
northwest ranchlands from Zapata to Laredo. Very strong
instability is noted with MLCAPE of around 3500 J/kg. A mid-level
wind max is expected to move over South Texas late tonight,
increasing shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates, and thus
increasing the potential for large hail and damaging winds. High-
resolution CAMs indicate 0-6km bulk shear values increasing to
40-50kts, so supercellular or multicellular structures would be
anticipated. Some models bring a potential line segment or squall
line through Deep South Texas as the convection evolves. With the
current 00Z sounding from BRO showing a decent capping inversion,
confidence is low on convection reaching into the lower Rio Grande
Valley. However, MLCIN may diminish as the mid-level disturbance
moves closer overhead, meaning the cap could erode later tonight.
Therefore, we will continue to monitor and update as needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions should prevail through this evening
with low ceilings developing after midnight. Models indicate MVFR
conditions being possible between midnight and sunrise with VFR
continuing thereafter through Monday. Strong storms will also be
possible late tonight. If storms hold together into the Rio
Grande Valley, the timing would generally be between 10 PM and 4
AM CDT. Isolated large hail and gusty winds will be possible.
Confidence is very low on thunderstorms continuing into
Brownsville due to a notable capping inversion per the 00Z BRO
sounding. Will update as needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020/

..Slight risk of severe weather across northern and western
portions of Deep South Texas tonight into Monday morning...
..Heavy rainfall threat continues across Deep South Texas
through the rest of the Memorial Day weekend...

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): A deep mid to upper level
trough will edge into the Central U.S. tonight and deepen into
the southern plains by the start of the workweek. With ample
surface moisture streaming in from the Gulf over the region and
conditional instability in place, the nature of the convection
that forms will depend primarily on the timing and location of
mesoscale interactions...namely, the vort maxes that circulate
around base of the trough as well as any surface features
including the dry line over West Texas and convective outflows.
There is a potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
to develop and move into Deep South Texas and the RGV this evening
through Monday night. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a
slight risk for severe weather across Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr
Counties and a marginal risk for the rest of Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley for tonight and all of our area in a
marginal risk for Monday and Monday night. The primary threats
include damaging wind and hail with these storms. While there is
generally good agreement between the models on the potential for a
wet forecast tonight into early next week because of this general
pattern, the exact onset, location, and duration of the showers
and thunderstorms that may develop continues to be a challenge.
While most models are still indicating significant MCS or MCC
development northwest and west of the CWA this evening which may
cross portions of or all of our region overnight, some of the CAMs
(especially the HRRR) are scaling back the rainfall and
thunderstorm potential for tonight.

In addition to the severe weather threat, the Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) has included all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall tonight through
Monday night, with a slight chance for excessive rainfall in Zapata
County tonight. This means that localized flash flooding will be
possible as some of these storms move through the area during the
short term. The better rain chances look like they will be
concentrated mostly to our north through the period, but WPC's Day 1-
3 QPF shows most of Deep South Texas receiving 1.00" to 3.00" of
total rainfall through 7 AM CDT Tuesday, but locally higher amounts
are possible.

Temperatures will depend primarily on the cloud cover and any rain
and thunderstorm development, areal coverage and longevity, but will
generally be in the lower to mid 70s tonight and Monday night with
high temperatures on Monday reaching the lower 90s.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): 500mb low/trough across the
southern plains/Texas will continue to provide unsettled weather
across portions of South Texas Tuesday as the GFS progs an MCS
moving from west to east late Mon night into early Tues morning.
The model blends are progging considerably high rain chances
across the CWA Tuesday as a result. Some drier air aloft is
expected to move across south Texas Tues night and this should
inhibit convective development Tues night into Wednesday but low
to mid level moisture will remain high across northeast Mexico to
warrant at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the Rio Grande Valley. The rest of the forecast period will
depend highly on the future position and movement of the 500mb low
across northeast Mexico Thursday as the GFS progs the upper level
low elongating across the eastern half of the state through the
rest of the week into the weekend before retrograding southwest
towards southwest Texas Sunday. This scenario will provide a
chance of showers and thunderstorms across deep South Texas Friday
through Sunday as a result.

MARINE (Now through Monday Night): Buoy 42020 is reporting seas
near 5 feet and southeast winds of 15 knots, gusting to 20 knots.
Slighlty elevated seas will continue into tonight and generally
subside through the period to 2 to 4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible tonight through Monday night, and localized winds
and seas will be affected by any outflows produced by any strong
storms that may develop.

Tuesday through Friday...Moderate to strong east to northeast
winds will prevail across the coastal waters Tuesday in the wake
of a convective frontal boundary. Small craft advisories will
likely be needed for all of the coastal waters Tuesday before the
pressure gradient weakens across the lower Texas coast Tues
night. Seas will remain elevated offshore the lower Texas coast
Tues night and small craft advisories will likely be needed for
high seas as winds diminish. Light and variable winds will prevail
across the coastal waters Tues night and will be light east to
southeast Wednesday with low pressure across the southern plains.
The pressure gradient will continue to remain weak across the
coastal waters Thursday and light southerly winds will prevail
across the western Gulf of Mexico. A weak frontal boundary/surface
trough is expected to move through the coastal waters Friday.
Winds should shift to the north and increase slightly as a result.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

65/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1101 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

TXZ248>257-351-353-260400-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
1101 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley until 6 AM CDT Monday. Storms that
develop will have the potential of producing large hail, damaging
winds and localized flooding.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the beaches of
South Padre Island and Boca Chica Beach.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday night and
Tuesday for all of Deep South Texas. Strong damaging winds will
be the main threat with some large hail also possible.

Areas of heavy rainfall Monday night and Tuesday may produce
flooding of streets and low-lying flood prone areas.

There will be an elevated risk of rip currents along area beaches
Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-260400-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
1101 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the Laguna Madre and
Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 20 nautical miles offshore until 6
AM CDT Monday. Storms that develop will have the potential of
producing large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday may produce
strong gusty winds, lightning strikes, poor visibility with heavy
rainfall, and locally higher seas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
820 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

TXZ248-252-250230-
Zapata TX-Starr TX-
820 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JIM HOGG...
NORTHWESTERN STARR AND SOUTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

At 819 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Falcon State Park, or 8 miles southwest of Lopeno,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lopeno, Falcon Heights, New Falcon, Falcon State Park, Falcon Dam and
Morales-Sanchez.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
Deep South Texas.

LAT...LON 2692 9901 2685 9895 2679 9895 2679 9891
      2670 9884 2653 9915 2654 9917 2657 9917
      2662 9918 2666 9920 2669 9921 2672 9921
      2675 9924 2677 9924
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 241DEG 11KT 2666 9924

60/SPEECE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1046 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

TXZ252-253-250445-
Southern Hidalgo TX-Starr TX-
1046 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HIDALGO...SOUTHEASTERN STARR AND
SOUTHWESTERN WILLACY COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1046 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near La Puerta to near La Grulla to 17 miles
southwest of Grulla Middle School. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 to 45 mph will be possible
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Edinburg, Mission, Pharr, Weslaco, San Juan, Alamo, Donna, Mercedes,
Rio Grande City and Hidalgo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

LAT...LON 2605 9807 2607 9813 2606 9820 2612 9830
      2610 9830 2617 9834 2616 9839 2623 9845
      2620 9848 2626 9859 2624 9867 2637 9880
      2638 9895 2655 9890 2641 9786 2606 9787
      2607 9803 2604 9807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 276DEG 36KT 2641 9869 2620 9866 2606 9881

60/SPEECE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1052 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

TXZ249-250-250515-
Brooks TX-Jim Hogg TX-
1052 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JIM HOGG AND NORTHERN
BROOKS COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1051 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles northwest of Realitos to 10 miles
south of Aguilares. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Falfurrias, Hebbronville, Gruy Stadium, La Colonia Park, Airport Road
Addition, South Fork Estates, Falfurrias Junior High School, Las
Lomitas, Pleasant Park and Thompsonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

LAT...LON 2734 9855 2734 9852 2727 9852 2726 9799
      2704 9799 2709 9895 2727 9895 2727 9880
      2735 9880 2736 9863 2734 9862 2734 9859
      2736 9859 2736 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 273DEG 28KT 2754 9868 2730 9908

60/SPEECE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1135 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

TXZ250-251-353-250515-
Brooks TX-Northern Hidalgo TX-Inland Kenedy TX-
1135 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KENEDY...
NORTHEASTERN HIDALGO...SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS AND NORTHWESTERN WILLACY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1134 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
developing along I69C, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Armstrong, Encino, Rachal, Norias, El Coyote Ranch Airport, U S 77
Border Patrol Station and Rudolph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Brownsville.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

LAT...LON 2704 9778 2662 9774 2661 9796 2660 9796
      2653 9839 2705 9815
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 262DEG 24KT 2664 9814

Hallman