Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Brownsville, TX

395 
WWUS54 KBRO 160856
SVSBRO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
356 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXC047-160906-
/O.EXP.KBRO.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-200516T0900Z/
Brooks TX-
356 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 400 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2678 9807 2678 9828 2703 9831 2703 9799
TIME...MOT...LOC 0856Z 176DEG 14KT 2698 9816 

$$

CB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1242 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Stratus has overspread the region with MVFR cigs being
reported at all regional airports. Lower ceilings are expected
the remainder of the night and Saturday morning. Low probability
Showers and thunderstorms may form along a line and impact the
region prior to sunrise Saturday with a better opportunity around
after sunrise. Ceilings look to lift to VFR during the afternoon
with the possibility of lowering back to MVFR Saturday night.
Light to moderate southeast winds persist tonight and Saturday
with occasional stronger gusty periods.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...An increase in cumulus producing generally MVFR
ceilings overnight and into Saturday morning can be expected.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible later this evening,
overnight with an better chance Saturday as a slow moving
mid-level disturbance moves over Texas. Some of the storms could
be organized in cluster or lines producing gusty winds, hail,
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Moderate southeast winds
persist through the evening with some gusty periods overnight and
Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): A 500mb shortwave
spins up and strengthens as it crosses the state of Texas today
before settling into East Texas on Saturday. The bulk of local
weather will largely depend on what occurs north of us. The
morning sounding at BRO showed CAPE values over 4000 j/kg, DCAPE
values topping 1000 j/kg with steep mid level lapse rates above 7
C/km and strong enough shear for rotating updrafts. It also showed
a moderate to strong elevated cap, knocking the severe threat
down to a low murmur. Model soundings across Zapata and Starr
counties, however, are much more favorable for damaging winds and
large hail. DCAPE across Zapata this afternoon jumps to over 1800
j/kg with shear topping 30 kts early and 50 kts later this
evening. SHIP values sit above 2.0 through the late afternoon,
growing confidence in a large hail threat.

The best timing seems to be early this evening across northern
Mexico, gradually working toward the border. The threat for large
hail may give way to damaging winds by early tonight as most CAMs
show a line of convection working southward through late tonight. If
this happens, the chance of rain may drop off rather quickly as the
atmosphere stabilizes behind the line, leaving Saturday convection
somewhat in doubt. Model soundings develop another round of storms
near CRP late Saturday morning, with convection working southward
through Deep South Texas into Saturday afternoon. Again, this would
generally be a hail to damaging wind threat and strongly depend on
what happens late tonight and north of our CWA early tomorrow
afternoon.

PWAT values between 1.8 and 2.1 inches will continue the locally
heavy rainfall threat tonight into Saturday, although most
convection is expected to generally move a little quicker, likely
limiting some flooding concerns. Temperatures are expected to be
above normal today and near normal Saturday with breezy
southeasterly winds today.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): As the 500 mb trough exits TX
Sun, ridging will be building in pretty quickly over the state
stabilizing the atms steadily. The 500 mb ridging will then likely
build in amplitude as two closed lows form up over the West Coast
and the mid Atlantic States through Wed. The West Coast 500 mb low
will then open up and will lift out to the NE Thur and Fri. This
will in turn erode the 500 mb ridging over the western Gulf. Even
though the 500 mb ridging does weaken over time somewhat, am
skeptical that this will result in much of a difference in the
overall temperature regime. Will lean closer to the warmer side of
guidance throughout next week.

Some residual moisture will be present over the RGV on Sun and Mon
allowing for some slgt chc/chc pops lingering over the region both
days. But the overall longer term conv chcs will be pretty
minimal after Mon. Will go with silent pops <10 % from Tues
onwards.

The ECMWF and GFS models are in pretty decent agreement in the
overall 500 mb fields. The main difference between the two models
is the placement of the 500 mb closed lows bracketing the ridge
axis over the RGV. The GFS has a more northward placement of these
two features versus the ECMWF. Otherwise, overall confidence in
the longer range forecast wording is above average for both temps
and pops.

MARINE (Now through Saturday Night): Low pressure develops and
deepens across central Texas, strengthening the pressure gradient
across the lower Texas coast this afternoon into this evening.
Southeasterly winds and increasing swell are expected to deteriorate
marine conditions into Saturday morning, with Small Craft Advisories
possible across the Gulf. Small Craft Advisories may be needed
across bay waters this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are
possible late this evening through Saturday afternoon, especially
across northern Gulf of Mexico waters. Damaging winds and frequent
lightning are expected.

Sunday through Wednesday Night: The PGF looks to remain pretty
weak over the lower TX Bay and Gulf waters next week as weak
surface ridging remains in control over the area. No SCA
conditions are expected for either the lower TX Bay or Gulf waters
throughout mid week next week as a generally light onshore flow
pattern prevails through Wed.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...Aviation

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
412 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ248>257-351-353-162115-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
412 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this evening
through late tonight, especially across the northern ranchlands.
Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing
damaging winds and hail. Moderate to heavy rainfall may produce
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through Saturday
morning. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing damaging winds and hail. Moderate to heavy rainfall may
produce localized flooding.

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches
this weekend and potentially persist into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-162115-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
412 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Small Craft Advisories may be needed for Gulf of Mexico waters
tonight as swells build.

Moderate to strong thunderstorms with damaging winds and frequent
lightning are possible late tonight across the coastal waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the Gulf of Mexico
waters Saturday and Saturday night due to elevated swells.

Moderate to strong thunderstorms with damaging winds and frequent
lightning are possible early Saturday across the coastal waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1140 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ248-160530-
Zapata TX-
1140 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZAPATA COUNTY UNTIL 1230
AM CDT...

At 1137 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from 25 miles northwest of San Ignacio to
near Laredo. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Zapata
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2709 9943 2711 9944 2713 9943 2715 9944
      2718 9943 2721 9943 2722 9944 2725 9944
      2727 9945 2732 9937 2727 9933 2727 9897
      2702 9916 2700 9941 2702 9942 2701 9943
      2702 9944 2706 9945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0437Z 264DEG 28KT 2745 9950 2729 9952 2700 9974

CB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
215 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXZ248>250-160815-
Brooks TX-Jim Hogg TX-Zapata TX-
215 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JIM HOGG...NORTHERN BROOKS AND
ZAPATA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

At 215 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ramirez to 6 miles northwest of Las
Palmas. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Zapata, Falfurrias, Hebbronville, Bustamante, Medina, Zapata High
School, Randado, Airport Road Addition, Zapata Middle School and
South Fork Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2734 9852 2727 9852 2726 9799 2674 9924
      2685 9927 2687 9932 2692 9932 2693 9938
      2698 9938 2702 9945 2718 9943 2727 9945
      2732 9937 2727 9932 2727 9880 2735 9880
      2736 9863 2734 9859 2736 9859 2736 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 276DEG 36KT 2739 9842 2699 9936

CB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
303 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXZ249-160830-
Jim Hogg TX-
303 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JIM HOGG COUNTY
UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 303 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Agua Nueva, moving north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Agua Nueva and Puesta Del Sol Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2707 9847 2705 9847 2705 9842 2684 9842
      2681 9843 2685 9870 2709 9865
TIME...MOT...LOC 0803Z 188DEG 20KT 2692 9855

CB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
316 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXZ248>252-351-353-160915-
Brooks TX-Jim Hogg TX-Zapata TX-Coastal Kenedy TX-
Northern Hidalgo TX-Starr TX-Inland Kenedy TX-
316 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KENEDY...JIM HOGG...NORTHERN
HIDALGO...NORTHEASTERN STARR...BROOKS AND EAST CENTRAL ZAPATA
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 315 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Guerra to Falfurrias. Movement was
southeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Falfurrias, Armstrong, Agua Nueva, Encino, Viboras, Rachal, Sarita,
Puerto Rico, Randado and Airport Road Addition.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2727 9852 2726 9799 2721 9798 2728 9779
      2723 9755 2728 9735 2716 9737 2718 9744
      2714 9739 2708 9744 2710 9750 2705 9746
      2704 9747 2706 9748 2671 9773 2649 9845
      2670 9903 2690 9910 2734 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0815Z 292DEG 32KT 2741 9792 2694 9838 2675 9890

CB