Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Brownsville, TX

725 
WWUS54 KBRO 041123
SVSBRO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
623 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

TXC047-247-427-041145-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200404T1145Z/
Jim Hogg TX-Starr TX-Brooks TX-
623 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN JIM HOGG...NORTHEASTERN STARR AND SOUTHWESTERN
BROOKS COUNTIES...

At 623 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near San Rafael
Ranch Airport, or 13 miles east of Agua Nueva, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
La Reforma, San Isidro, San Rafael Ranch Airport and Santa Elena. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2690 9825 2678 9832 2675 9834 2667 9838
      2676 9853 2692 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 1123Z 282DEG 19KT 2684 9839 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Mejia

807 
WWUS54 KBRO 041137
SVSBRO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
637 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

TXC047-247-427-041146-
/O.EXP.KBRO.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200404T1145Z/
Jim Hogg TX-Starr TX-Brooks TX-
637 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JIM HOGG...
NORTHEASTERN STARR AND SOUTHWESTERN BROOKS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
645 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 2690 9825 2678 9832 2675 9834 2667 9838
      2676 9853 2692 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 1136Z 282DEG 19KT 2683 9834 

$$

59

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
350 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday):A cold front extends north of
Zapata to NW of Corpus Christi to Victoria continuing northeast. The
front has not showed much southward movement the last 3 to 6 hours
with mid-level flow becoming increasingly westerly.  Thunderstorms,
some strong, continue to develop along and just south of the
boundary with lingering instability and a decent mid-level jet (50-
60kts)enhancing the lift and supporting isolated updrafts. The
storms are impacting Zapata and Jim Hogg with heavy rainfall, and
brief incidences of small hail and gusty winds. Elsewhere across the
CWA and the RGV, nothing more then an isolated brief shower the last
6 hours.

Difficult forecast for the next 36 hours with a lot of uncertainty
with the front currently stationary north of the CWA. Global and Hi-
res models continue to be determined to move the front south of the
river late today into the evening hours. A series of weak
disturbances coupled with the density of the cool airmass as high
pressure builds in from the north should give the front have enough
oomph to push through, albeit taking it practically all day. Rain
chances remain relatively high but have been reduced somewhat with
best chances remaining north and west. Thunderstorms remain in the
forecast today with sufficient instability (1500 j/kg) and some
modest shear maintaining slight probability for a few updrafts.  SPC
has removed our CWA from any severe risk but can not rule out a
strong storm with some small hail and local stronger gusts as is the
ongoing event over the Ranchlands as of this writing. Temperatures
to cool off or remain steady over the Ranchlands with a slow steady
climb for the RGV assuming the slow southward progress of the front
and the cloud cover remains dense and low enough to limit insolation
keeping temperatures near normal for the RGV.

The front is expected to move offshore this evening becoming
stationary south of river ovenight. Weak low pressure forms along
the front setting up a weak overrunning pattern. Cooler conditions
develop with areas of light rain and drizzle anticipated with
forecast soundings indicating a weak inversion and with a very moist
atmospheric column (1.9 inches pwat). Temperatures fall into the 50s
and 60s tonight and may recover into low to mid 70s except near 80
for the Lower Valley Sunday all depending on the front's position.

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): A stout 590dam mid-
level ridge centered over the southern Gulf of Mexico will
dominate the overall weather pattern through the long-term
period, keeping temperatures abnormally warm. Surface high
pressure across the Great Lakes region will shift southeastward
across the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night through Monday
morning, turning winds back out of the southeast by mid-morning
Monday. A series of shortwave troughs will move through the
southwest flow aloft through the majority of the upcoming week,
producing a slight chance to a chance of showers and thunderstorms
each day. The best chances of precipitation will be focused along
and west of U.S. 281/I-69C where rainfall is very much needed due
to the extreme/exceptional drought. The next cold front is
forecast to push through the CWA Friday morning or afternoon, with
exact timing still questionable. The front and upper-level
perturbations should increase precipitation chances CWA-wide.
Temperatures behind the front are expected to drop down near
seasonal average.

&&

.MARINE: Now through Sunday...A modest cold front to work its way
slowly south through the coastal waters low this evening and
tonight. High pressure to build into the NW Gulf increasing winds
from the north to northeast. Winds and seas are expected to
increase with a short duration of Small Craft Advisory conditions
tonight into early Sunday. There are some indications that the
front may stall along the coast or possibly not move through the
entire area with winds and seas not reaching SCA potential. With
this mentioned will not issue a SCA at this time and will continue
to monitor the fronts progress. Showers and thunderstorms may
increase in coverage later today and this evening as the front
approaches.

Sunday Night through Friday...Light to moderate east to southeast
winds and low to moderate seas will prevail through much of the
long-term period, with weak high pressure/pressure gradient in
place across the Gulf of Mexico. The next cold front is forecast
to push through Friday morning or afternoon, with lots of
uncertainty associated with the front at this time. At the moment,
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are forecast to develop
behind to the front on Friday. Otherwise, adverse marine
conditions are not expected in the long-term period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  66  79  72 /  50  40  40  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  64  80  73 /  40  30  40  10
HARLINGEN            79  63  79  71 /  60  40  40  10
MCALLEN              79  63  78  71 /  50  40  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  61  76  69 /  60  40  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  68  76  73 /  50  40  30   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation...59-Bogorad
Long Term/Upper Air...67-Mejia

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
538 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

TXZ248>257-351-353-051045-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
538 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms are possible producing gusty winds,
small hail, brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Localized
nuisance flooding of low-lying and flood prone areas are possible
where heavy rain persists.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at area beaches
along the Lower Texas coast Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-051045-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
538 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Small Craft advisories may be necessary for the Gulf waters
tonight and early Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Small Craft advisories may be necessary for the Gulf waters
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
121 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

TXZ249-250-040700-
Brooks TX-Jim Hogg TX-
121 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JIM HOGG AND
NORTHWESTERN BROOKS COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 120 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Jim Hogg County Airport, or over Hebbronville, moving east-southeast
at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hebbronville, Las Lomitas, Gruy Stadium, Jim Hogg County Airport,
Hebbronville High School, South Fork Estates and Hebbronville Border
Patrol Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2734 9855 2734 9852 2727 9852 2726 9824
      2705 9832 2727 9885 2727 9880 2735 9880
      2736 9863 2734 9862 2734 9859 2736 9859
      2736 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0620Z 285DEG 22KT 2735 9871

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
235 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

TXZ248-040815-
Zapata TX-
235 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN JIM HOGG AND CENTRAL
ZAPATA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

At 234 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Las Palmas, or 8 miles northwest of Zapata, moving northeast at 15
mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Zapata, Bustamante, Medina, Zapata High School, Zapata County Fire
Department, Escobas, Zapata Middle School, Zapata County Public
Library, Las Palmas and Falcon Mesa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2727 9915 2727 9912 2700 9895 2698 9895
      2686 9931 2688 9933 2692 9932 2693 9937
      2694 9939 2696 9939 2698 9938 2702 9942
      2701 9943 2702 9944 2706 9945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0734Z 244DEG 13KT 2698 9936

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
531 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

TXZ249-041115-
Jim Hogg TX-
531 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JIM HOGG COUNTY
UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

At 531 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Agua Nueva, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Agua Nueva, San Rafael Ranch Airport and Puesta Del Sol Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2696 9842 2693 9842 2679 9846 2679 9880
      2699 9876
TIME...MOT...LOC 1031Z 282DEG 20KT 2689 9870

59