Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Brownsville, TX

332 
WWUS84 KBRO 112301
RFWBRO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
501 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

TXZ249>257-351-353-120015-
/O.EXP.KBRO.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200111T2300Z/
Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
501 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
249, 250, 251, 252, 253, 254, 255, 256, 257, 351, AND 353...

Winds have decreased below Red Flag Warning thresholds, therefore
the warning will expire. Although the warning will expire,
relatively low humidity values will reside across the region for a
few more hours. Outdoor burning is still discouraged through the
early evening hours. 

$$

Frye

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
646 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...As the drier air moves into the region behind the cold
frontal passage from earlier this morning, VFR conditions will
prevail over the upcoming 24 hours for all 3 RGV airports with
some gusty surface winds prevailing from the N-NW. The PGF will
weaken enough late in the TAF period allowing the surface flow to
diminish significantly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The cold front has cleared the
region early this morning with drier, cooler and more stable air
moving into the region. KBRO radar is showing just a few patches of
rain over the offshore waters and these are moving east away from
the lower TX coastline. The 500 mb trough that brought this cold
front through the region will be lifting out to the ENE later today.
This will allow a generally WSW-ENE 500 mb flow pattern to prevail
throughout Sunday. The low level flow will swing around back from
the E-SE pretty quickly which will allow the WAA to return warming
temps into Sun. The ECMWF is the quickest and strongest with the
warmup with the NAM and GFS temp guidance lagging behind a bit.
Considering the overall level of sunshine expected today and
tomorrow, will stick closer to the warmer temp guidance numbers.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): High pressure across the
northern Gulf of Mexico slides east as low pressure develops
across northern Mexico, allowing southerly flow to continue Sunday
night into Monday, and nudging the frontal boundary north as a
warm front. The front slows and stalls north of the CWA Tuesday
into Wednesday. High pressure dives out of the Pacific NW into the
Plains, kicking the front further south late Wednesday into
Thursday morning where it is expected to stall near or across Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through Friday. The low
pressure in northern Mexico settles into the western Gulf of
Mexico by the end of the week, boosting moisture and rain chances
along the stalled front into the weekend as another surface front
approaches.

Have kept isolated thunderstorm wording for the warm front on
Monday with 0-6km bulk shear values near 30 kts, slightly elevated
lapse rates, and MUCAPE values nearing 1000 J/kg. Nothing too
impressive, but possible convection with any lift provided by the
warm front or any seabreeze boundary that can develop. Have kept
most of any other POPs out of the CWA until the stalled front mid
to late week. The biggest question would be where the front
stalls, with the best chance of rain at this point remaining on
Thursday.

Have kept temperatures warming from the upper 70s to low 80s on
Monday into the mid and upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, with
upper 70s and low 80s possible Thursday through Friday. Patchy fog
is possible Monday morning prior to the warm front heading north.
Southerly winds may become breezy across the lower RGV Tuesday and
Wednesday due to the pressure gradient.

MARINE (Now through Sunday): Surface obs from across the Laguna
Madre are showing N winds around 15-20 knots which Buoy020 reports a
N wind 18G23KTS with swells around 9 feet. Gusts at Buoy020 have
reached near Gale Force for a couple of times as the cold front
cleared the area. So will maintain the Gale Warning for the Gulf
waters for today in case the PG tightens up a bit more resulting in
some periodic stronger gusts. SCA conditions may linger into the
late afternoon/early evening hours due mainly to the elevated seas.
So the Gale Warning will likely need to be replaced with an SCA
later this afternoon. Expect a light to moderate E-SE low level flow
to return pretty quickly later tonight into Sun as as the surface
ridge shifts eastwards along the Gulf Coast.

Sunday Night through Friday: Southerly flow returns into mid week
as high pressure heads east and low pressure develops across
northern Mexico. The frontal boundary works north as a warm front
on Monday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, stalling
just north of the lower Texas coastal waters Tuesday into
Wednesday. The front is expected to head back south Wednesday into
Friday, stalling somewhere across or near the lower Texas coast.
This brings back the chance of rain through the end of the week
and potentially builds seas Wednesday into Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...The RH values have dropped off significantly in the
wake of the fropa as drier air is moving into the region. However,
current RH values range in the 20 to 35 % range early this morning.
Min RH values look to remain in the 25 to 35 % range throughout most
of the region for most of today. Expected 20 foot wind speeds
throughout today appear to max out in the 15 to 18 knot range for a
couple of hours around midday. This doesn't appear to quite reach
the criteria for Red Flag Warnings today. So will cancel the Fire
Weather Watch and will post an RFD for today for most of the inland
portions of Deep South TX.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ130-
     132-135.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60-Speece...Short Term/Aviation
56-Hallman...Long Term/Upper Air

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
630 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

TXZ248>257-351-353-112300-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-
Southern Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-
Coastal Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
630 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches
through the entire forecast period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-112300-
Laguna Madre from the Port of
Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-Laguna Madre from the Arroyo
Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX-Laguna Madre from 5 nm
north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-Coastal waters from Port
Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-Coastal waters from Baffin Bay
to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio
Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port
Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm-
630 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Laguna Madre
today.

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0
to 60 nautical miles offshore today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.