Small Craft Advisory 8, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

116 
WHUS71 KBOX 122356
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
656 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

ANZ236-130100-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T0100Z/
Narragansett Bay-
656 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to diminish less than 25 kt overnight.

$$

ANZ231-251-130500-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T0500Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
656 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 
  2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay and Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233-130500-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T0500Z/
Vineyard Sound-
656 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Vineyard Sound.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-130800-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T2300Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
656 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-130800-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200114T0200Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
656 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 5 to 15 kt and seas 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232-234-130500-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T0500Z/
Nantucket Sound-Buzzards Bay-
656 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-130200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T0200Z/
Boston Harbor-
656 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt and seas 1 to 2 feet.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-130800-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T1600Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
656 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Block Island Sound and Rhode Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

961 
WHUS71 KBOX 130303
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1003 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

ANZ231>234-251-130415-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T0500Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
1003 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and seas have diminished and will remain below Small Craft
thresholds.

$$

ANZ250-254-131115-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T2300Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
1003 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt and seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-131115-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200114T0200Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
1003 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 5 to 15 kt and seas 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-131115-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T1600Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
1003 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Block Island Sound and Rhode Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

131 
WHUS71 KBOX 130841
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
341 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

ANZ250-254-131645-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T2300Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
341 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-131645-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200114T0200Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
341 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-131600-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T1600Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
341 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Block Island Sound and Rhode Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

522 
WHUS71 KBOX 131534
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1034 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

ANZ235-237-131645-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T1600Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
1034 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...


$$

ANZ250-254-132300-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T2300Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
1034 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-132345-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200114T0200Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
1034 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

401 
WHUS71 KBOX 132059
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
359 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

ANZ250-132200-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200113T2300Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
359 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

ANZ254-140200-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200114T0200Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
359 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 5 to 10 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to 
  Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-140200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200114T0200Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
359 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 5 to 10 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

105 
WHUS71 KBOX 140011
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
711 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

ANZ254-140115-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200114T0200Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
711 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Seas will continue to diminish less than 5 feet this evening and
overnight.

$$

ANZ255-256-140200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200114T0200Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
711 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds around 10 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

115 
WHUS71 KBOX 140201
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
901 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

ANZ255-256-140315-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200114T0200Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
901 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds and seas have subsided below small craft advisory
thresholds. Further improvement is expected. The Small Craft
Advisory has been allowed to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1103 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crossing northern New England at mid morning which
will continue to push east, with the trailing cold front
shifting east across eastern Massachusetts through early this
afternoon. Warm temperatures will linger into early afternoon,
then colder drier air will push eastward as winds slowly
diminish. High pressure will build over Eastern Canada,
maintaining the dry weather across the region Monday and part
of Tuesday. Unsettled with a couple of storm systems for
midweek, though precipitation will be mostly wet instead of
wintry. Dry, windy, and much colder Thursday night and Friday.
Another storm system will likely impact the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM Update...

Cold front steadily shifting E into western Mass/N central CT at
15Z, but very strong winds continue just above the surface.
BUTKIT NAM 3KM model Skew T indicating low level jet of 70-80 kt
from around 960 to 920 hPa at 12Z at KCHH, while it is lifting
at KPVD up to around 900 hPa as the winds associated with the
LLJ were slowly diminishing. So, expect the core of the jet
to continue to lift NE from midday through the afternoon.

A few lingering showers across SE Mass and Cape Cod will
diminish as they move offshore early this afternoon. May see a
few more showers shift E-NE along the S coast for the next few
hours, though they will be quick moving and spotty.

After the front pushes east, winds will diminish further as they
veer to W. Expect temps to top off in the 60s, mildest across
the coastal plain and lower CT valley. There is a low chance for
a few spots could briefly touch 70.

Have updated near term conditions to bring them current.

Previous Discussion...

The surface low pressure and its supporting upper shortwave will
move across the Maritimes this afternoon. West to southwest
winds will bring in drier air and associated clearing skies.

Model guidance clearly underestimated the depth of mixing as
well as the eventual high temperatures. It was clear temperature
records would be broken, but not the degree to which they were
broken. Mixing today is expected to reach to at least 900 mb,
and after yesterday a mix to 850 mb should also be considered.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

High pressure builds over Eastern Canada tonight and Monday.
This brings a northeast flow to Southern New England, with
increasing moisture below 850 mb. Expect clouds to move in from
the Gulf of Maine late tonight and last into Monday. No lift
will accompany the clouds, and the subsidence of the high should
work against this. So no showers are expected.

Temperatures fall to the 20s before the clouds move in, then
rise into the 30s and low 40s Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Highlights...

* Warmer Tuesday and dry early.

* Unsettled midweek: weak warm front Tue night brings light precip,
  mainly rain. Stronger storm system may bring rain and some snow
  Wed night into early Thu.

* As colder air rushes in, very strong winds Thu night along the
  coast with strong gales or storm force wind gusts over coastal
  waters.

* Next potentially impactful winter storm comes next weekend, though
  details uncertain at this time.

Details...

Monday night into Tuesday afternoon...

High sfc pressure centered over Quebec and zonal mid level flow
stick around through mid day Tuesday keeping things dry.
Low/mid level moisture lingers though, keeping skies at least
partly cloudy. Clouds increase through the day ahead of the late
arrival of a warm front. The airmass will be trending warmer
with high temps several degrees above what we saw on Monday,
mainly in the 40s. It remains several degrees warmer than normal
for early January.

Tuesday evening through Wednesday...

WAA kicks in in earnest Tuesday evening as the high pressure moves
off to the east allowing a low center to move out of the upper Great
Lakes region east into southern Quebec. The associated warm front
lifts north through southern New England Tuesday evening bringing
WAA and decent isentropic lift enough to generate light showers from
Tuesday evening through the early morning hours of Wednesday. Most
anywhere could see showers but QPF amounts will be light. Given the
warmer than average temperature profile most everyone should see
precip fall as rain, though can't rule out some light snow across
the highest terrain.

Rain comes to an end by mid-late morning as a cold front moves
through between 12Z and 18Z ushering in a drier post frontal
airmass. Dewpoints drop from the 30s/40s to the 20s/30s. Even so,
we'll get another unusually warm day with highs making it into the
40s and low 50s. Cloud cover decreases, if briefly so we should
see breaks of sun before clouding over once again overnight.

Wednesday night and Thursday...

A good deal of uncertainly introduced at this time period owing to
stark model-to-model and run-to-run discrepancies with how the next
storm system evolves. At the synoptic scale we see a strong 500 mb
trough and sfc low pressure evolving over the Great Lakes before
dropping through New England Wednesday night and Thursday bringing
both rain and snow back into the forecast. One of the flies in the
ointment is the trend in the last few runs of the GFS to greatly
reduce the strength and even presence of this stronger surface low,
in which case precipitation would be negligible. For now will lean
heavily on the EC/Canadian solution given its consistency in showing
the storm system, though less certain on low placement and rain/snow
delineation. For now based on EPS probabilities the best chance of
seeing up to an inch of snow would be for areas along and north of
the MA Pike, and even moreso north of RT 2. However, given that
we're 5 days out confidence in precip type is low. Highs will be
cooler but still above average, in the upper 30s/low 40s.

Thursday night through Saturday...

Thursday night temperatures take a dive in strong CAA. 850 mb temps
will drop from around -5C Thursday morning to -13C Friday morning,
bringing low sfc temps in the teens/low 20s and highs on Friday in
the upper 20s/low 30s. This will likely be the first time we
experience colder than normal temperatures in quite some time. Along
with the cold comes very gusty winds (though these will also depend
on the strength of the low) in the CAA pattern behind the departing
low. Strongest winds would be Thursday night into early Friday,
especially along the coast and over the waters where we may need
wind headlines both on land and over the waters. Friday sfc high
pressure crosses the region keeping things dry with decreasing
winds.

All major synoptic models continue to show a very strong (and
potentially impactful) winter storm moving in over the weekend, as a
deep mid level trough and strong sfc low dig through the Ohio Valley
and into New England by Sunday. Still too far out to get into
details on start time and type of precip, but a snowy system is a
possibility by Friday night/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

15Z Update...

Through this afternoon...

MVFR to local IFR-LIFR CIGS will linger across SE Mass and
especially along S coast terminals through around 18Z.
Otherwise, conditions improving to VFR from W-E.

Strong winds at 2000-4000 feet will produce LLWS through early
afternoon then, once the cold front clears the coast, winds
aloft should diminish. Drier air moves in behind the cold
front, which will bring VFR and clearing skies this afternoon.
Expect W-SW winds gusting up to 35-40 kt across Cape Cod and
the islands through 18Z-20Z then should slowly diminish.

Tonight...

High pressure builds over Eastern Canada and brings diminishing
wind to New England. Winds turn out of the north, then northeast
by morning. Expect VFR and mostly clear skies, but with clouds
moving in off the Gulf of Maine toward morning.

Monday...

MVFR cigs expected, especially along he east and the South
Coast. VFR bases in the west. Winds light northeast to east.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA or SN.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA or SN.

&&

.MARINE...

Through this afternoon...

Expect SW winds to gust up to 30-40 kt, though could see gusts
up to 45 kt across the eastern outer waters through early
afternoon as the cold front moves offshore. Winds will shift to
W and diminish, though gusts up to 30-35 kt may linger for a
time. Seas 2 to 5 feet near shore, and 7 to 14 feet on the
exposed waters.

Tonight...

High pressure building over Quebec will diminish winds over the
waters. Wind directions will shift, first from the north and
eventually from the northeast. Lingering Small Craft winds
early in the night, diminishing overnight.

Monday...

Northeast winds will be less than 25 kt. Lingering 5 to 7 foot
seas on the outer waters, subsiding through the day. Northeast
wind will bring low clouds from the Gulf of Maine over the
Southern New England waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Note...

Temperatures today are starting at record levels at three
of our four climate sites, and are expected to rise a few
degrees higher during the day.

Record warmest lows for Saturday Jan 11th ...

BOS 49, New Record, previously 45/1983
ORH 46, New Record, previously 37/1972, 1983 and 2017
BDL 42, New Record, previously 41/1924
PVD 44, New Record, previously 43/1924

Record highs for Saturday Jan 11th ...

BOS 70, New Record, previously 62/1975
ORH 63, New Record, previously 58/1924
BDL 68, New Record, previously 60/1983
PVD 65, New Record, previously 61/1975

Record highs for Sunday Jan 12th...

BOS 61/1913, 1975 and 2017 ... Midnight temperature 65
ORH 59/2018 ... Midnight temperature 61
BDL 60/2018 ... Midnight temperature 59
PVD 62/2018 ... 1 AM temperature 62

All-Time January Record Highs...

BOS 72: 01/26/1950
ORH 67: 01/26/1950
BDL 72: 01/06/2007
PVD 69: 01/29/2002

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ002>024-026.
RI...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/BW
NEAR TERM...EVT/BW
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...WTB/EVT/BW
MARINE...WTB/EVT/BW
CLIMATE...Staff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
304 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-132015-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
304 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-132015-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
304 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday.

Strong gale force west to northwest gusts are possible Thursday, and
especially Thursday night, over all coastal waters. Rough seas
expected on the open waters.

Another round of west to northwest gales possible late Saturday into
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.boston.gov

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
212 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WARREN                  42.22N  72.19W
01/12/2020                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON WARE ROAD

0355 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LOWELL                  42.64N  71.32W
01/12/2020                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON PARK AVENUE WEST

0405 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BOSTON                  42.32N  71.07W
01/12/2020                   SUFFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN AT 74 FENWAY

0409 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ROCKLAND                42.13N  70.92W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON RICE AVENUE

0418 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WELLESLEY               42.30N  71.29W
01/12/2020                   NORFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            POLE AND WIRES DOWN ON ROUTE 9

0447 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST MILTON                  42.21N  71.11W
01/12/2020  M67 MPH          NORFOLK            MA   MESONET

0502 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MIDDLEBORO              41.89N  70.91W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON HIGHLAND STREET

0508 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BLUE HILL ASOS          42.21N  71.11W
01/12/2020  M64 MPH          NORFOLK            MA   ASOS

0522 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MONSON                  42.10N  72.31W
01/12/2020                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 32

0537 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HOLLISTON               42.20N  71.43W
01/12/2020                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON MARSHALL STREET

0537 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HALIFAX                 41.98N  70.87W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING EAST STREET

0547 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST MILTON                  42.21N  71.11W
01/12/2020  M67 MPH          NORFOLK            MA   MESONET

0605 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORWELL                 42.17N  70.78W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON BARQUE HILL DRIVE AS WELL AS 11 OTHER
            LOCATIONS

0617 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PEMBROKE                42.07N  70.80W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON GROVE STREET

0620 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SCITUATE                42.19N  70.73W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON CAR ON OLD PLAINFIELD PIKE

0624 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FOSTER                  41.85N  71.77W
01/12/2020                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON BRIGGS ROAD

0626 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTMINSTER             42.55N  71.90W
01/12/2020                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING MOST OF BRAGG HILL ROAD

0630 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HALIFAX                 41.98N  70.87W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON FRANKLIN STREET

0640 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORFOLK                 42.12N  71.32W
01/12/2020                   NORFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON MILLER STREET

0641 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTWOOD                42.22N  71.22W
01/12/2020                   NORFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON HARTFORD STREET

0642 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST WOODS HOLE              41.53N  70.67W
01/12/2020  M71 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO

0644 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DUXBURY                 42.04N  70.67W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING CONGRESS STREET

0647 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG REHOBOTH                41.83N  71.27W
01/12/2020                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN IN ROADWAY ON HILLSIDE AVENUE

0649 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ATTLEBORO               41.94N  71.29W
01/12/2020                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING PRESCOTT STREET

0651 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST PLYMOUTH AP             41.92N  70.73W
01/12/2020  M58 MPH          PLYMOUTH           MA   ASOS

0656 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG UPTON                   42.17N  71.61W
01/12/2020                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON CHRISTIAN HILL ROAD

0711 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WAKEFIELD               42.50N  71.07W
01/12/2020                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING YALE AVENUE

0714 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTHBRIDGE             42.08N  72.03W
01/12/2020                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING LEBANON HILL ROAD

0714 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MARSHFIELD              42.09N  70.71W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS MARGINAL STREET

0716 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PEMBROKE                42.07N  70.80W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON MOUNTAIN AVENUE

0721 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WARREN                  42.22N  72.19W
01/12/2020                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON BRAGG ROAD

0724 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MONSON                  42.10N  72.31W
01/12/2020                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON ROBBINS ROAD

0727 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST EAST FALMOUTH           41.58N  70.56W
01/12/2020  M71 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   NONE

0727 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG COHASSET                42.23N  70.80W
01/12/2020                   NORFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON KING STREET

0728 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DUXBURY                 42.04N  70.67W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON HIDDEN ACRES DRIVE

0733 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PLYMPTON                41.95N  70.82W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING HALF OF BROOKS STREET

0737 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HINGHAM                 42.24N  70.89W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON SHERWOOD ROAD

0756 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST OTIS AFB                41.63N  70.52W
01/12/2020  M64 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   AWOS

0830 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DUXBURY                 42.04N  70.67W
01/12/2020                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON MYRTLE NEAR KEENE STREET MAKING ROAD
            IMPASSABLE

0905 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST TRURO                   41.99N  70.05W
01/12/2020  M58 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO

0930 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST PROVINCETOWN            42.06N  70.18W
01/12/2020  M58 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER BOX2000065 BOX2000064 BOX2000063 BOX2000062 BOX2000061
BOX2000060 BOX2000059 BOX2000058 BOX2000057 BOX2000054 BOX2000056
BOX2000055 BOX2000053 BOX2000052 BOX2000051 BOX2000050 BOX2000049
BOX2000048 BOX2000082 BOX2000083 BOX2000084 BOX2000085 BOX2000086
BOX2000081 BOX2000047 BOX2000080 BOX2000079 BOX2000077 BOX2000078
BOX2000076 BOX2000075 BOX2000074 BOX2000046 BOX2000073 BOX2000072
BOX2000071 BOX2000070 BOX2000066 BOX2000069 BOX2000068 BOX2000067

AED