Small Craft Advisory 52, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

746 
WHUS71 KBOX 301419
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1019 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

ANZ255-256-302230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-200401T0000Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
1019 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-302230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.200330T2100Z-200331T2100Z/
Boston Harbor-
1019 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 1 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-254-302230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-200401T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
1019 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary, Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich 
  Bay and Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to 
  Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-302230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.200330T2100Z-200401T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
1019 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232-302230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.200331T0000Z-200401T0000Z/
Nantucket Sound-
1019 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-302230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0052.200331T0000Z-200401T0000Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
1019 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 2 to 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

871 
WHUS71 KBOX 301955
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

ANZ235-237-310400-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0053.200331T0600Z-200331T2000Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-310400-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-200401T1200Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-254-310400-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-200401T1200Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary, Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich 
  Bay and Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to 
  Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-310400-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.200330T2100Z-200401T0200Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-310400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.200330T2100Z-200331T2100Z/
Boston Harbor-
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232-310400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.200331T0000Z-200401T0000Z/
Nantucket Sound-
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 2 to 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-310400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0052.200331T0000Z-200401T0000Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 1 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

455 
WHUS71 KBOX 310824
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

ANZ230-310930-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-200331T2100Z/
Boston Harbor-
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

ANZ235-237-311500-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0053.000000T0000Z-200331T1500Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Block Island Sound and Rhode Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-311630-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-311630-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-311630-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-311630-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-200331T1800Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232-311500-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-200331T1500Z/
Nantucket Sound-
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-311500-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-200331T1500Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
203 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

A secondary low pressure lingers just east of Cape Cod and
Nantucket into Monday. This will lock in the clouds and
continue a risk for showers or drizzle. This low pressure should
finally depart Monday night into Tuesday. Variable cloudiness
and seasonably cooler weather for Tuesday into Wednesday. Though
a midweek coastal low is looking more likely to stay away from
Southern New England, wrap-around moisture from it will bring
increasing clouds and periods of showers by late week.
Moderating temperatures for the weekend, with the next cold
front either late Saturday or Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM Update...

Decreased overnight low temperatures per observations. Nudged
the forecast toward the 10th percentile of guidance which is
matching well with the latest observations.

Decreased precipitation chances as there will be a lull in
precip per the latest HREF and GFS guidance as the secondary low
moves offshore. Precipitation chances will increase once the sun
comes back up and in combination with the cutoff low rotating
around the eastern Great Lakes.

730 PM Update:

Feeling the effects of increasing upper-level support from the
approaching trough, and in conjunction with elevated instability
(mid-level lapse rates around 6-6.5 C/km producing a narrow
ribbon of MUCAPEs < 500 J/kg), heavy showers and thunderstorms
have again blossomed over the Berkshires into the Pioneer Valley
and into northern Worcester County. These showers and storms
are rooted above chilly and very stable low-levels, moving to
the northeast at a fairly fast clip (60 mph). Given the elevated
weak instability, generally expecting these storms to mainly
produce occasional lightning and heavy rains, though in a
worst-case stronger cell, small hail between pea to half-inch
size would be possible. The stable low-levels should mitigate
how much wind is transported to the surface. Severe weather
isn't expected, but the thunder could certainly startle some
people.

Did re-shape PoPs/Wx to bring isolated thunder mention at least
across a good part of western and central MA. Poor consistency
in the high-res CAMs makes for less confidence on if any storms
make it into the Boston-Providence corridor. At the moment,
appears the recent HRRR has the best handle on current activity,
with any thunder through midnight being north of the Mass Pike.
May need some adjustments to PoPs/Wx later, though did include
areas of drizzle/fog for the after-midnight portion of the
forecast.

No changes to temps which will not change much.

Previous discussion follows...

Secondary low pressure lingers east of Cape Cod and Nantucket
tonight. Expecting a lingering risk for showers or drizzle at
just about any time through this evening. Drier air moves in
aloft after midnight, ending most of the precipitation towards
CT and portions of the CT River Valley in MA.

Plenty of clouds sticking around, should mean temperatures
should not fall far. Still thinking above normal low
temperatures for the last day of March.

Some stronger showers/possible thunderstorms across the coastal
waters late this afternoon. Thinking this is about as far north
as any convection will get. Lapse rates are just too poor
farther north. In any case, any instability we do have will move
well off to the east by this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

As the secondary low pressure gets a bit stronger and moves
slightly farther offshore, expecting winds to turn more
northerly. It will be a subtle, but important, detail. Winds a
shade more from the northeast are much more likely to lock in
low clouds and drizzle, while a shift of only 20 degrees more to
the north will permit some drying in the lower levels, meaning
less drizzle.

A decent cold pool moves over the Great Lakes tomorrow, which is
close enough to generate a diurnal shower risk, especially if
some breaks of sunshine can develop. As this cold pool moves
farther east later in the day into Monday night, could see some
wet snow develop across the higher terrain of the interior.
Little to no snow accumulation expected.

Expecting high temperatures Monday to be similar to today,
before colder air arrives Monday night. Near normal low
temperatures for Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Highlights...

* Cloudy and cooler than normal weather Tuesday into Wednesday.

* Monitoring track of a coastal low later Tuesday into Wednesday
  night, though a direct impact is looking less likely. Better
  chance for wrap-around showers central and eastern/coastal MA into
  RI Thursday into Friday.

* Moderating temperatures by the weekend, though a cold front brings
  a related threat for showers either Saturday or Sunday.

Details...

Tuesday:

Upper-level low will pull away into the waters south of Nova
Scotia on Tuesday. Pressure gradient between an offshore weak
cyclone and a high pressure wedge will continue to support a
cool onshore NE component, with winds at times across the outer
eastern/southeast waters gusting to near gale force at times.
Coverage of showers should dwindle into the afternoon as surface
ridge wedges southeast, with modest cool advection. All in all,
still a fairly unsettled day with a considerable amt of clouds
and highs in the low to mid 40s, coolest near the eastern MA
coast.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night:

Due to increasingly blocked mid/upper flow evolving over the
North Atlantic, the upper-level low over the Canadian Maritimes
retrogrades back across New England Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a
southern-stream trough over the central Appalachians and related
surface low will shift off the Carolina coast early Tuesday
night. This coastal storm remains progged to stay well south of
40 deg N latitude with little if any northward jog following
good consistency in the deterministic and ensemble guidance
across several model cycles. Given this, and now that the
southern-stream disturbance is entering the West Coast as of
this writing (and is becoming better sampled by the radiosonde
network), it appears less likely that Southern New England will
see any impact from this system. Have decreased PoPs to below
mentionable levels/dry forecast. Will be some wrap-around
moisture on an inverted trough that will affect our area
Thursday into Friday, however (to be described below).

So for Tuesday night through Wednesday night, while the pattern
is trending drier, expect a continued cooler than normal period
with still a fair amount of clouds as the retrograding upper low
and its cool pocket of air re-establishes itself. Highs on
Wednesday into the 40s (a spot 50 possible in the CT Valley into
Tolland County), coolest near the coast. Lows mainly in the 30s
each night, though may dip below freezing in northern MA.

Thursday into Friday Night:

12z guidance now indicates the best chance for any showers is
toward the latter part of the week, as an inverted trough trails
back across ME into Thursday, and shifts/builds southward
towards Southern New England later Thursday into Friday. Expect
a renewed increase in clouds areawide, and while some threat for
showers exists for many, the better chances are mainly across
east-central MA/northern RI eastward. Sided toward solid Chance
PoPs for the MA coastal plain eastward into the coastal waters,
with limited/slight chance shown further west into western MA
and northern CT.

Biggest source of uncertainty is regarding how quickly will the
inverted trough and related showers pivot SE and exit Southern
New England. The 12z ECMWF clears us out by Friday afternoon,
whereas the Canadian GEM and the GFS maintain lingering showers
even into Friday night. Did start to trend PoPs downward into
Friday night but with the blocky pattern upstream and at least
leftover troughiness hanging around into Friday night,
maintaining at least a slight chance shower mention.

Showed highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thursday, closer to
normal for this time of year. However, depending on how quickly
clouds/showers advance in on Thursday, it is possible that these
may be a bit too warm and may need to be lowered by a few
degrees. Similar highs for Friday. Lows each night in the mid
30s to lower 40s.

Saturday into Sunday:

Pattern starts to moderate into the weekend, with gradually
warming temperatures and shortwave ridging aloft supporting
less cloudy conditions.

Model guidance differs on when a cold front moves eastward
across our area. GFS and the Canadian are most progressive
(later Saturday) while the ECMWF is more into Sunday. Ensemble
means tend to support a later arrival, though will stick with
a general blend of models for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update...

Tonight...High confidence

IFR to LIFR as low level stratus lingers. This is evident per
observations and Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery.
Expect some spotty VLIFR, but this should remain confined to
ORH, Cape Cod and the Islands. Precipitation has tapered off as
the secondary low has moved offshore. Expecting visibility
reductions at ORH, Cape Cod and the Islands. Elsewhere
visibilities should stay up per HREF/NAMNest guidance. Winds
will be out of the NNE/NE between 8-15 kts.

Monday...

High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

Expecting MVFR to IFR conditions as low level stratus lingers
with continued NNE/NE winds. Will have increasing chances of
showers due to the combination of day time heating along with
the cutoff low rotating in and interacting with an inverted
trough from the secondary low. Not out of the question that
there are a few thunderstorms across far western areas, but
confidence too low to include in the forecast at this point in
time.

Colder air will advect in this afternoon and into the evening.
This will change over precipitation to snow across the higher
elevations, and suspect that there may be some snowflakes that
mix in at BOS, BED, and BAF before precipitation comes to an
end. Expect visibility reductions in areas of heavier
precipitation. May see light snow accumulation across the higher
elevations.

Monday Night...

Precipitation tapering off as the inverted trough moves farther
offshore, but precipitation may linger across eastern areas.
Will see gradual improvement to high IFR or MVFR.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in the TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence the TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds diminishing tonight and shifting toward the
north/northeast tonight. Still expect heightened seas across the
ocean through Monday with rain and fog at times. Winds increase
once more as colder air arrive late Monday into Monday night.
Extended the Small Craft Advisories across the outer coastal
waters, where rough seas should linger into Tuesday. Elsewhere
across the coast waters, did not change much with respect to
previous timing. Did cancel the advisories for Boston Harbor and
Narragansett Bay, where wind gusts up to 20 kt are expected this
evening.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of
rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night through Friday: Low risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ231-232.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ235-
     237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Loconto
NEAR TERM...BL/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
334 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-310745-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
334 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-310745-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
334 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.boston.gov

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1009 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     HAIL             NEW BEDFORD             41.66N  70.94W
03/29/2020  M0.75 INCH       BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT THE ACUSHNET TOWN LINE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BOX2000989

AED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1039 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             LEICESTER               42.25N  71.90W
03/29/2020  M1.25 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEAR THE SPENCER LINE

0853 PM     HAIL             WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
03/29/2020  M0.75 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER

0853 PM     HAIL             LEICESTER               42.25N  71.90W
03/29/2020  M1.00 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER

0856 PM     HAIL             WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
03/29/2020  M1.75 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO

0902 PM     HAIL             HAVERHILL               42.78N  71.09W
03/29/2020  M0.75 INCH       ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO

0920 PM     HAIL             WOONSOCKET              42.00N  71.50W
03/29/2020  M1.00 INCH       PROVIDENCE         RI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA

1007 PM     HAIL             NEW BEDFORD             41.66N  70.94W
03/29/2020  M0.75 INCH       BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT THE ACUSHNET TOWN LINE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BOX2000987 BOX2000983 BOX2000984 BOX2000985 BOX2000986
BOX2000988 BOX2000989

AED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1054 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

MAZ022-300330-
Barnstable MA-
1054 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

At 1052 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms across the outer Cape, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Pea to penny size hail will accompany this cluster of storms along
with frequent cloud to ground lightning.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster, Provincetown, Dennis, Orleans, Eastham, Wellfleet and
Truro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors when this storm approaches. Winds may be strong enough to
produce minor damage, such as a few downed branches.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 7020 4172 7025 4181 7000 4190 7002
      4191 7000 4193 7007 4190 7007 4203 7009
      4206 7016 4204 7019 4203 7019 4207 7023
      4207 7024 4208 7022 4208 7017 4206 7008
      4200 7002 4176 6993
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 244DEG 40KT 4187 7013

Frank

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1106 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             LEICESTER               42.25N  71.90W
03/29/2020  M1.25 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEAR THE SPENCER LINE

0853 PM     HAIL             WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
03/29/2020  M0.75 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER

0853 PM     HAIL             LEICESTER               42.25N  71.90W
03/29/2020  M1.00 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER

0856 PM     HAIL             WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
03/29/2020  M1.75 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO

0902 PM     HAIL             HAVERHILL               42.78N  71.09W
03/29/2020  M0.75 INCH       ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO

0920 PM     HAIL             WOONSOCKET              42.00N  71.50W
03/29/2020  M1.00 INCH       PROVIDENCE         RI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA

1005 PM     HAIL             NEW BEDFORD             41.66N  70.94W
03/29/2020  E1.00 INCH       BRISTOL            MA   PUBLIC

1007 PM     HAIL             NEW BEDFORD             41.66N  70.94W
03/29/2020  M0.75 INCH       BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT THE ACUSHNET TOWN LINE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BOX2000987 BOX2000983 BOX2000984 BOX2000985 BOX2000986
BOX2000988 BOX2000990 BOX2000989

BL