Gale Warning 55, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

469 
WHUS71 KBOX 301521
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1021 AM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

ANZ232>234-310030-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SC.Y.0149.201230T2000Z-201231T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.GL.W.0055.201230T2000Z-201231T1500Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
1021 AM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-310030-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.W.0055.201230T2000Z-201231T1500Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
1021 AM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...Block Island Sound and Rhode Island Sound.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-310030-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.W.0055.201230T2000Z-201231T1500Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
1021 AM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 6 to 11 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-310030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0055.201230T2300Z-201231T1500Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
1021 AM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-310030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0055.201230T2300Z-201231T1500Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
1021 AM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay and Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-310030-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0149.201230T2000Z-201231T1200Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
1021 AM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In 
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

882 
WHUS71 KBOX 302354
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
654 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

ANZ235-237-311500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
654 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...Block Island Sound and Rhode Island Sound.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-311500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
654 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 6 to 11 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-311500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
654 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-311500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
654 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay and Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-311500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
654 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-311200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-201231T1200Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
654 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In 
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

952 
WHUS71 KBOX 310940
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
440 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

ANZ235-237-311500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
440 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...Block Island Sound and Rhode Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-311500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
440 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 9 to 11 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-311500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
440 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-311500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
440 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay and Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-311500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
440 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-311500-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
440 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In 
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

075 
WHUS71 KBOX 311337
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
837 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

ANZ250-254>256-010000-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0150.201231T1337Z-210101T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
837 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  6 to 11 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary, Coastal waters from Provincetown
  to Nantucket MA out 20 nm, Coastal Waters out to 25 nm South of
  Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-251-311445-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
837 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...


$$

ANZ230-236-311445-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-201231T1500Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
837 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
144 AM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry and seasonably chilly weather are on tap overnight into
Wednesday. A cold front will bring a period of mainly scattered
rain showers to the region late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. High pressure builds in from the west later Thursday
into Friday morning, bringing dry and chillier weather. A low
pressure passing to our west will bring more rain later Friday
into Friday night, but a period of icing is possible at the
onset for portions of the interior. We will dry out on Saturday
and become unseasonably mild. Somewhat chillier weather arrives
early next week, but it still will be above normal for this time
of year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

130 AM Update...

No changes in the latest update. Forecast remains on track.

Previous discussions below...

950 PM Update...

Forecast remains on track in the latest update. Have only
adjusted dew points, wind speeds and gusts to move it more in
line with the latest observations. Otherwise no changes.

625 PM Update:

Quite befitting, we are expecting a rather chilly night on the
evening of the so-called "Cold" Full Moon.

Temperatures at this hour are now below freezing for most except
across Cape Cod. However it remains quite blustery outside with
an extremely dry air mass (dewpoints in the low single digits to
even a few sub-zero dewpoints). With gusts still reaching into
the upper 20s to lower 30s kt range at this hour, it's making
it feel even colder outside. Besides cold advection, noted that
3-hourly pressure rises across NH/eastern VT are around 3 mb or
so, and that's helping to keep the winds and gusts up. Have
increased these through late-evening to match current obs and
expected near-term trends, with NW gusts then expected to
decrease after midnight. The winds will help keep air
temperatures up some than would otherwise the case, but as high
pres over the mid- Atlantic ridges in and winds slacken, clear
skies should allow temperatures to really plummet for the second
half of the night. Should see widespread teens for most, though
into the lower to mid 20s on the Outer Cape and Nantucket.

4 PM Update:

The core of a high pressure will approach the Mid Atlantic coast
late tonight. This will maintain a flow of colder air into
southern New England with mainly clear skies. The pressure
gradient will also relax as this high pressure gets closer to
southern New England. Definitely a chilly night by most
standards. Thinking mostly teens for low temperatures across
the interior, but could get lower if winds diminish quicker than
current expectation.

Mainly clear skies to start, with some mid and high clouds
arriving late tonight. These will also work to prevent really
bottoming out temperature-wise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

This high pressure moves offshore Wednesday, turning the flow
across our region to be more southwesterly behind a warm front.
Despite the increased clouds and very chilly start, still
expecting temperatures to rebound to near to slightly above
normal levels. The warmer we get, the more low level mixing will
take place. Gusty winds should develop during the afternoon
hours.

Our next chance for some precipitation looks to be Wednesday
night. A low pressure moving across southeast Canada will swing
a cold front our way, increasing the southerly flow.
Temperatures should hold nearly steady or slowly rise Wednesday
night as a result. The question is how much cold air gets locked
in at the surface across the interior. Thinking the door is
still open for some freezing rain or snow Wednesday evening
across the higher terrain of interior southern New England. This
should become less of a risk late Wednesday night. Will continue
to monitor this potential for possible winter weather headlines
with later forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Highlights...

* Cold front moves through New Years Eve with a period of light
  rains, clearing late-aftn to early evening.

* Turning cold New Years Eve night under strong high pres.

* Monitoring developments regarding a late-Fri into Sat frontal
  system that could bring wintry weather to a portion of Southern
  New England. Potential for accumulations of snow/ice mainly north
  of the Mass Pike.

* Brief dry weather Sat night.

* Some hints/potential for a coastal storm Sunday into Monday -
  confidence low on details.

Details...

Thursday/New Years Eve:

12z guidance now is showing better agreement on a Clipper low which
moves in very late Wed night into mainly the day portion of New
Years Eve.

A mid-level shortwave trough in the northern stream begins to
deamplify/shear out on Thursday as it spreads its related cold front
through the remainder of Southern New England. Minor timing
differences with the frontal passage, with the 12z NAM and GFS a bit
faster than the international guidance, the latter would be more
late-day/early night. Temperatures should be marginally warm enough
for mainly a plain rain. Fairly weak forcing and PWATs mainly 0.8"
or less should keep QPF limited to up to a tenth of an inch. Decent
pressure gradient should support some southwest breezes 10-15 mph,
flipping with frontal passage. Highs upper 30s to mid/upper 40s.

New Years Eve Night:

A brief period of easing NW winds early New Years Eve night gives
way to a period of strong radiational cooling as a 1030+ mb high
pres settles over New England. Dry wx with lows in the upper teens
to the 20s.

New Years Day into Saturday:

Overall no significant change noted from current and prior model
runs and trends regarding a frontal system that looks to spread a
period of wintry weather mainly across areas near and north of the
Mass Pike.

Much of New Years Day should be mainly dry with high pressure from
the overnight shifting eastward to a position off the New England
seacoast late New Years Day. Precip onset may be delayed by
initially dry air in place, and this dry air may permit a short
period of dynamic wet-bulb cooling through evaporative/phase stage
change effects. However dewpoints will be on the rise so this
process may be somewhat brief.

Warm frontal precip likely to begin as a plain rain south of the
MA/CT/RI border late Friday and into Friday night, but near and
north of here where colder air is more entrenched, snow should
start. As warm layer aloft comes in this will shift p-types to more
of a wintry mix (FZRA/IP) mainly across northern and western MA into
part of northern CT through the nighttime hrs. Biggest uncertainties
are specific to p-type transitions: those being how quickly can
shallow sub-freezing surface air recover and on the thermal profile
for top-down p-type approaches. In general, we should see a
transition over to plain rain across all of Southern New England by
Sat, but it may take some time for sub-freezing temps to fully scour
out. We may not know the answer to that question until we get into
the range of the higher-res models that can handle those small
scale details somewhat better than models can in the medium
range. Potential exists for winter headlines especially for
parts of the interior, either due to snow accumulation and/or
ice accretions, but confidence on these accumulations is still
too low to consider at this point.

Period of rain showers should continue into Sat, but cold front and
dryslot comes in later Sat to permit drier wx for the second half of
the day.

Sunday into Monday:

Low predictability in this period with models diverging on potential
outcomes and details regarding how the next potent southern-stream
shortwave comes out of the southern Plains.

GFS brings this trough mainly eastward with coastal low
development which mainly progresses east, with largely dry and
northerly flow.

The 12z ECMWF remains the most bullish in bringing a coastal low up
to and just inside of the 40N/70W benchmark, with a plain rain to
interior accumulating snow for the interior. Has some support from
the 12z EPS mean, but spread in the EPS member lows remains large
with little spatial clustering. The 12z Canadian GEM now also
has a similar depiction to the ECMWF. Certainly a lot that could
change between now and then, especially with 2-3 storm systems
that could alter outcomes, but this will bear some watch as we
move forward.

Temps in this period trend near to slightly above average.

Tuesday:

Ridging and drier wx returns to the region, though another
disturbance moving through the Great Lakes could bring some light
precip later Tues night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...High confidence

VFR with high clouds spreading in from the eastern Great Lakes.
Light W winds shifting to the WSW/SW.

Today...High confidence

VFR with winds shifting to the SW/S. Becoming breezy by late
afternoon as a low level jet moves in from the southwest. May
have some 15-25 kt gusts. Increasing clouds with ceilings
lowering from 10 kft to 4-7 kft during the afternoon. The only
exception is across Cape Cod and the Islands where MVFR ceilings
may spread in toward 00Z.

Wednesday Night...Moderate confidence

MVFR across the Cape and Islands, but generally VFR to start
elsewhere. Expect ceilings to lower to MVFR as a cold front
moves in from the west and precipitation spreads in. Could even
have some spotty IFR ceilings. Generally expecting a plain rain.
The only exception is across the higher elevation of interior
where a wintry mix of -FZRA and snow is possible before
transitioning to rain/snow roughly after 06Z.

Expect it to be breezy with SW/S winds of 10-20 kts and gusts of
15-30 kts. The 30 kt gusts are more likely across the Cape and
Islands.

Thursday...High confidence

Any rain come to an end from northwest to southeast as the cold
front slides offshore. Conditions improving to VFR. Winds
shifting to the W/WNW and will be breezy early in the day. Gusts
diminishing as the day progresses.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: VFR.

New Years Day: VFR. Chance RA, chance FZRA, chance SN.

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely, SN, chance FZRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA, slight chance FZRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance RA, slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Minor tweaks to the marine headlines through this evening based
on latest observations. Downgraded Boston Harbor to a strong Small
Craft Advisory. Winds diminish this evening, but seas will take
a little longer to subside. High pressure moves south of the
waters Wednesday, with a cold front approaching Wednesday night.
Looking like SW gales are a possibility during that time.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

New Years Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ250-
     254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ231-251.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/BL/Loconto
NEAR TERM...Belk/BL/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...Belk/Loconto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
440 PM EST Tue Dec 29 2020

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-302145-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
440 PM EST Tue Dec 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A period of freezing rain and/or sleet is possible across portions of
interior southern New England later Friday into Friday night before
precipitation changes to rain. This may result in a period of icing
and hazardous travel.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-232>237-255-256-302145-
Boston Harbor-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
440 PM EST Tue Dec 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231-250-251-254-302145-
Cape Cod Bay-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
440 PM EST Tue Dec 29 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.boston.gov

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston