Gale Warning 26, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

082 
WHUS71 KBOX 191750
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
150 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ANZ235-237-200200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0026.200419T1800Z-200420T0600Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
150 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-200200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0026.200419T1800Z-200420T0600Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
150 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-200200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0026.200419T1800Z-200420T0600Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
150 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-232-200200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-
150 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Cape Cod Bay and 
  Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-236-200200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Narragansett Bay-
150 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Cape Cod Bay and 
  Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-200200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0060.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
150 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

743 
WHUS71 KBOX 192108
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
508 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ANZ235-237-200515-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
508 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-200515-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
508 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-200515-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
508 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-232-200515-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-
508 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Cape Cod Bay and 
  Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-236-200515-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Narragansett Bay-
508 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound, Cape Cod Bay and 
  Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-200515-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0060.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
508 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

847 
WHUS71 KBOX 200203
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1003 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ANZ235-237-201015-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-200422T0000Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
1003 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-201015-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-200422T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
1003 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-201015-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-200422T0000Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
1003 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-232-200600-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-
1003 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound and Cape Cod Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-236-200600-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Narragansett Bay-
1003 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Vineyard Sound and 
  Buzzards Bay. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-200600-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0060.000000T0000Z-200420T0600Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
1003 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
723 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast today. A
weak cold front tonight brings light showers to northern and
central Massachusetts. A distant coastal low may bring some
showers to the south coast Monday. Otherwise pleasant, dry
seasonable weather Monday. A strong cold front brings a risk of
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, a few of which
could be strong. Gusty northwest winds and a period of below-
normal temperatures await behind the front Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A brief break for Thursday before the next rainy
storm system moves in on Friday, but may linger into part of
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 AM Update:

A few areas saw some frost this morning, and there are still
some straggling upper-20s readings across parts of northwest MA
and into Tolland and Windham Counties in northern CT. Full sun
will help to boost temperatures quickly and anticipating highs
into the lower 60s across the interior. Will be a bit breezy
from the southwest as the mixed layer deepens by mid-morning,
and the onshore element to the wind will keep the South Coast
and the Cape a bit cooler in the mid 50s. Forecast generally
reflected these conditions quite well with no significant
changes needed.

Previous discussion follows...

High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will move offshore
today. Meanwhile a cold front will approach southern New England
from the NW late this afternoon. This combination will lead to
gusty SW winds, which in turn will mean warmer conditions today.
Favored slightly above normal temperatures with plenty of
sunshine and drier air expected.

As for precipitation, most of southern new England will remain
dry through the day. There is a risk for a stray shower as a
moisture-starved cold front approaches NW MA into this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
More clouds arrive tonight as a cold front crosses our region.
These clouds linger into Monday as an offshore low pressure
moves NE along this boundary. Any showers across NW MA should
dissipate as they move move farther east.

This cold front should be well offshore before a coastal low
pressure moves far enough north to impact portions of our
region. Expecting dry weather for most, except for portions of
the South Coast, including the Cape and islands. Thinking even
there the majority of any precipitation should remain farther
offshore, but there will be a risk for periods of light rain
late tonight into Monday.

Winds subside tonight then veer through west to north by
morning. As the low pressure approaches, winds shift to
northeast and increase as it passes by.

Clouds tonight will be enough to prevent good radiational
cooling. Min temperatures should be near to slightly above
normal. Below normal temperatures Monday with onshore winds and
plenty of clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Strong cold front Tues brings a threat of showers and low-topped
  thunderstorms, with small hail and gusty winds possible in
  thunder. Severe not out of the question but currently considered
  less likely.

* Gusty, potentially headline-worthy northwest wind gusts Tues night
  Gales likely on the waters. Chilly with low-20s wind chills in the
  interior.

* Blustery and dry Wed with below-normal temperatures.

* Unsettled late week into the weekend. Details still unclear but a
  coastal low near/south of New England slow to move east could lead
  to a multi-day rain event. Stay tuned!

Details...

Monday Night:

Any showers early Monday night to be mainly confined to the Outer
Cape, Nantucket and adjacent waters but will clear in short order
(well before midnight). High pressure then builds across Southern
New England with clearing skies and returning light southerly winds.
Lows in the mid/upper 30s.

Tuesday - Tuesday Night:

Main feature in this period is a very strong mid-level trough (which
becomes negatively-tilted by late Tues-Tues night) and a sharp cold
front. Strong 500 mb height falls occur early on Tuesday, with early
clear skies giving way to increasing clouds and strengthening
southerly winds ahead of the front. Looks fairly breezy to gusty in
the southerly flow ahead of the front, with gusts that are
borderline Advisory levels.

Toward late-afternoon into the evening appears to be when the front
crosses our area. We continue to be concerned about the potential
for heavy showers and embedded low-topped thunderstorms, partly or
entirely driven from strong jet dynamics (85-100 kt jetstreak at 500
mb over north-central PA, our area in the poleward exit
region/cyclonic shear side of this jetstreak). The air mass is
associated with anomalously cold profiles aloft producing mid-level
lapse rates between 7-7.5 C/km and wet-bulb zero heights that are
aroud 4000-4500 ft AGL. Highly sheared setup especially deep-
layer, but when it comes to convective instability, values look
at least significantly tempered by low dewpoints in the 30s and
varied frontal timing in the guidance. While the 00z NWP has
overall sped the front up a few hrs compared to previous, the
NAM remains a fast outlier. The NAM also has a pre-frontal
trough with clouds/showers late- AM/early- PM that could temper
surface convective instability before the stronger front
arrives. Will maintain prior mention of chance thunder with
gusty winds and small hail with the front. If greater dewpoints
or stronger heating can materialize to raise sfc-based
instability more than the very paltry values forecast, then the
thunder threat could be greater but this is less likely at this
point. SPC has increased the categorical severe threat with a
Marginal Risk/5% severe across a large part of Southern New
England, and text discussion mentions potential for greater
categorical severe probs pending trends. Nonetheless something
to watch and re- assess. PoPs decrease rapidly west to east by
early evening.

Strong cold air advection (850 mb temps fall from 0 to +2C to around
-8 to -10C by 12z Wed) behind the front brings a shot of
unseasonably cooler air for Tuesday night. Bigger concern will be
the gusty winds post-frontal. A good pressure rise-fall couplet is
shown by most guidance with well-mixed PBL due to the strong cold
advection supporting top of the mixed layer wind gusts at least to
Advisory levels. Though unlikely to be nearly as strong as the wind
event experienced earlier in April, adverse impacts nonetheless at
least conceivable given gusty winds acting on trees becoming
increasingly leafed out. Will show conservative gusts 30-40 kt for
most areas but suspect wind headlines may eventually be needed for
the winds once we get in the range of the mesoscale models. With the
air mass being anomalously chilly for late April, will have lows in
the upper 20s to near freezing with wind chills in the teens to mid
20s. Not exactly April-like weather by any stretch.

Wednesday - Wednesday Night:

Mostly sunny and dry conditions, with continued blustery to gusty
northwest winds and below-normal temps. Wind headlines could still
be needed for the morning hrs but decreasing gusts into the
afternoon. Even with full sun, highs mid to upper 40s, with low-mid
40s across the higher terrain. Lows mainly in the upper 20s to
mid/upper 30s under good radiational cooling.

Thursday:

Upper low from midweek pulls away resulting in a zonal confluent mid-
level flow for Thursday. Warm front aloft lifts northward on
Thursday associated with 850 mb temps rising to the positive single
digits Celsius range. May not be much precip with this warm front
per subsidence given confluent flow aloft - will leave as dry for
now. Thus moderating trend to temperatures though still a fair
amount of clouds around to support highs in the mid/upper 50s.

Late Thursday night into early-Friday morning, increasing clouds
with chances for showers as a storm system approaches from the
southwest. Kept lows in the lower 40s given clouds/warm advection.

Friday into the Weekend:

Considerable uncertainty in the guidance for late-week/weekend
period. While details are still elusive, there are some signals for
a potential wind-swept, multi-day rain event centered in this period
that will need further evaluation and watched closely.

Per ensemble means, upper pattern across the North Atlantic becomes
increasingly blocked in this period, with a probable tendency for
storm systems to be very slow-to-translate eastward. As mentioned
above, a storm system again coming out of the Deep South/Southern
Appalachians moves up the mid-Atlantic on Friday, spreading periods
of rain into our area with northeast onshore winds. Questions then
exist as far as when this system pulls away into the North Atlantic.
00Z GFS seems to think this system will exit eastward by Friday
night, but the international guidance (12z ECMWF/00z Canadian) is a
lot slower and keep rains going into a good part of the weekend.
This could be preferred given the progged blocked pattern in the
North Atlantic/Maritimes. Will stick closely to a blend of guidance
for the weekend but pending subsequent guidance and consistency
thereof, may need to consider raising PoPs/rain chances higher for
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today...High confidence.

VFR. Southwest winds incresaing to 10 to 15 kts gusting up to
30 kt, strongest gusts towards Cape Cod airports and Nantucket.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR cigs. Low risk for -SHRA towards NW MA between
19/22Z-20/06Z. Low risk for for -RA towards Nantucket after
20/09Z.

Monday...High confidence.

VFR cigs. Lower VFR cigs towards the Cape and islands. MVFR cigs
possible towards Nantucket during the afternoon. Risk for -RA
towards the Cape and islands.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Strong winds
with local gusts up to 40 kt. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty SW winds develop today across the waters. Winds diminish
and veer through west to become north by daybreak Monday. Winds
become northeast Monday and increase once more as a low pressure
passes by the waters. Risk for some rain late tonight into
Monday with reduce visibility. Rough seas continue across the
outer coastal waters into Monday.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231>234-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237-250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Loconto
NEAR TERM...Belk/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Belk/Loconto
MARINE...Belk/Loconto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
421 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-200830-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
421 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-200830-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
421 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.boston.gov

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston