Frost Advisory 5, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

197 
WWUS71 KBOX 200236
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1036 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

MAZ002>004-008>011-201045-
/O.CON.KBOX.FZ.W.0004.200920T0500Z-200920T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
and Springfield
1036 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Near freezing temperatures as low as 32 expected.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Eastern Franklin MA, Northern 
  Worcester MA, Western Hampshire MA, Western Hampden MA, 
  Eastern Hampshire MA and Eastern Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ005-006-012-013-017-018-026-RIZ001-201045-
/O.CON.KBOX.FR.Y.0005.200920T0500Z-200920T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Milford, 
Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Taunton, Brockton, Ayer, Foster, 
and Smithfield
1036 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern, 
  northeastern and southeastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode 
  Island.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

717 
WWUS71 KBOX 200828
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
428 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

MAZ002>004-008>011-201200-
/O.CON.KBOX.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200920T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
and Springfield
428 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Near freezing temperatures as low as 32 expected.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Eastern Franklin MA, Northern 
  Worcester MA, Western Hampshire MA, Western Hampden MA, 
  Eastern Hampshire MA and Eastern Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ005-006-012-013-017-018-026-RIZ001-201200-
/O.CON.KBOX.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-200920T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Milford, 
Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Taunton, Brockton, Ayer, Foster, 
and Smithfield
428 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern, 
  northeastern and southeastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode 
  Island.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

332 
WWUS71 KBOX 201152
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
752 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

MAZ002>004-008>011-201300-
/O.EXP.KBOX.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200920T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
and Springfield
752 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

The sun is up and temperatures are increasing. Therefore, the
Freeze Warning will be allowed to expire.

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ005-006-012-013-017-018-026-RIZ001-201300-
/O.EXP.KBOX.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-200920T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Milford, 
Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Taunton, Brockton, Ayer, Foster, 
and Smithfield
752 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

The sun is up and temperatures are increasing. Therefore, the
Frost Advisory will be allowed to expire.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
301 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably cool and dry conditions persist into early next
week. Hurricane Teddy will lift north and pass well east of our
region Monday and Tuesday before moving through the Canadian
Maritimes. The only impacts for southern New England will be
high surf and pockets of minor coastal flooding/beach erosion,
but dry weather will persist. Temperatures moderate to near or
above normal level for the middle and end of next week. The
other main story will be the continuation of prolonged dry
weather through most of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM Update...

No changes in the latest update forecast remains on track.

1025 AM Update...

Bumped up high temperatures slightly based on observations. May
be just a touch too cool for this afternoon. Could see a few
spots that get into the mid to upper 60s along the south coast.
Remainder of the forecast is on track.

725 AM Update...

* Chilly day despite plentiful sunshine.

* High Surf Advisory posted for most coastlines through Monday.

After a chilly night with first frost of the season for some,
an unseasonably cool day is in store. It will be less windy
than on Friday though, as surface high pressure moves overhead.
850mb temperatures fall to between -1C and +1C, which will only
support highs mainly in the lower to middle 60s despite
plentiful sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight:

* Freeze headlines likely needed for the East Slopes of the
  Berkshires tonight. Frost headlines elsewhere away from the
  immediate coast.

Surface high pressure moving overhead combined with dew points
falling into the 20s will make for the coldest night of the season
so far. A combination of a very dry air mass (PWATs less than 0.25
inches) and winds decoupling will allow temperatures to fall into
the upper 20s to low 30s for the usual cold spots and mid to upper
30s elsewhere except for 40s on the immediate coast. Record minimum
daily lows could be challenged. See the Climate section for more
details. Note that it will remain breezy along the coast throughout
the night due to pressure difference between a 1035mb high over
Quebec and Hurricane Teddy approaching Bermuda.

Sunday:

* Chilly day with many locations not getting out of the 50s on the
  last full day of astronomical summer.

As surface flow turns northeast, the large temperature difference
between the top of the boundary layer (+2C at 925mb) and the SST
(around +18C near Massachusetts Bay) will help with vertical mixing
and development of ocean-effect clouds over parts of Eastern MA and
RI. How far inland the clouds spill inland remains to be refined but
we have high confidence in widespread highs in the mid to upper 50s,
which are more typical for late October! In other words, a real shot
of fall for the last full day of astronomical summer. Normal highs
for mid September are in the low to mid 70s. See the Climate section
for the record minimum highs that could be challenged.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Big Picture...

Upper shortwave sweeps across New England Monday, then merges with
Hurricane Teddy south of Nova Scotia Monday night. Broad high
pressure ridge sits over the Eastern USA through Wednesday, then
shifts east on Thursday. Another shortwave then moves east across
New England Friday.

Model mass fields are similar through Wednesday night, then become
greatly divergent Thursday through Saturday. Confidence is high
through Wednesday, then moderate late in the week.

Details...

Monday-Tuesday...

High pressure over Northern New England Monday continues dry weather
and light winds over most of Southern New England. Increasing
pressure gradient brings increasing northeast winds to Cape Cod and
the Islands, possibly to the entire Massachusetts East Coast.
The high will maintain dry weather into Tuesday as well. Mixing
inland will reach between 850 and 900 mb, supporting max temps
each day in the 60s.

Clear skies and light wind will mean radiational cooling Monday
night. Dew points will be in the low to mid 30s inland and around 40
along the coast. Expect low temperatures in the low to mid 30s much
of the interior, but low 40s along the coast and in urban heat
islands. Frost and/or freeze headlines will be needed where the
season has not ended.

Hurricane Teddy will be drawn north to Nova Scotia by the shortwave
trough, reaching the vicinity of Cape Breton Tuesday night. This is
well to our east, so any effects to Srn New England will be limited.
One effect will be a continuing pressure gradient over the waters
east and southeast of Massachusetts and possibly along the eastern
coast. This will bring strong north-northeast winds Monday
night/Tuesday that turn from the northwest Tuesday night. The
mixed layer over the Outer Cape and Nantucket will have gusts of
25-35 kt/30-40 mph. Another effect... the persistant winds will
also bring high surf to the Cape/Islands, and possibly minor
coastal flooding around high tide.

Wednesday through Saturday...

A weak shortwave Wednesday may bring a few clouds, otherwise expect
high pressure to maintain dry weather Wednesday and Thursday. A cold
front moves through on Friday. PW values reach 1.4 inches, with the
moist layer to 600 mb. This is enough to expect a few showers
with POPs at slight chance or low-end chance. Another shortwave
moving along the front may bring a few showers Saturday as
well. This should warm daytime temps into the 70s midweek before
cooling behind the cold front Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00Z...High confidence.

VFR conditions expected with winds out of the N/NNE. Speeds
generally 5-10 kts, however winds will be higher across Cape
Cod and the Islands due to a tight pressure gradient. Here could
see gusts of 20-30 kts. Cannot completely rule out some
stratocumulus advecting in from the ocean with cloud bases
around 4 kft.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR with any gusty winds decoupling at all areas except for ACK.
Winds generally out of the N. ACK will see gusts of 20-25 kts
overnight.

Sunday...High confidence.

VFR conditions anticipated through the forecast. Gusty winds
shifting to the NE. Could see gusts of 15-25 kts at times.
Expected some ocean effect stratocumulus to advect inland to
Cape Cod and the Islands per NAMnest and NBM guidance. Cloud
bases will be around 3-4 kft. Cannot completely rule out MVFR
ceilings, but am thinking it will be more SCT to FEW at this
point in time. This cloud cover could spread into PVD/BOS.

Sunday Night...High confidence.

VFR with clear skies and light winds across the interior. Will
remain gusty across Cape Cod and the Islands. Winds out of the
NE with speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 25-30 kts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night and Thursday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings continue through this afternoon for the waters of Cape
Cod and the Islands. Small Craft Advisories continue for all other
waters for the entire weekend due to gusty NNE winds of up to 30 kts
and rough seas of 6 to 10 ft. There could be a brief period late
tonight and early Sunday when conditions drop below Small Craft
criteria as post TC Sally departs and Hurricane Teddy moves north
but expect rough seas and gusty winds for much of the weekend.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Monday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Rough seas up to 18 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
* A Special Weather Statement is in effect for elevated fire weather
  potential this weekend.

With minimum RH falling to between 20 to 35 percent for many
locations away from the immediate coast, as well as gusty northerly
winds, there will be elevated fire weather potential today. The
potential is exacerbated by the prolonged dry weather across
southern New England.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Large high pressure over eastern Canada/northern New England
will generate gusty NE winds and rough seas across our waters
this weekend.

This high pressure system and Hurricane Teddy passing well east
of our region Monday and Tuesday will create strong north to
northeast winds. Gusts will reach 25 to 35 kt/30 to 40 mph,
while offshore seas will build to between 12 and 17 feet across
our eastern waters.

Given this setup a High Surf Advisory continues through Monday
for ocean exposed beaches. This will likely need to be extended
into Tuesday with later forecasts. High surf/Dangerous rip
currents are anticipated.

In addition, we are in a period of high astronomical tides into
early next week generally between 11.6 and 11.8 MLLW in Boston.
This coupled with persistent gusty NE winds and high seas will
lead to pockets of minor coastal flooding/beach erosion. The
Coastal Flood Statement continues mainly for some minor splash
over along the eastern MA coast. We think Sun and especially
Mon/Tue have a greater risk for pockets of minor coastal
flooding/beach erosion during the high tide cycle given very
high sea offshore. We could see a 0.5 to 1.5 feet of storm surge
with a low risk for up to 2 feet on Tue depending on the timing
of the strongest winds. Coastal Flood Advisories will eventually
be needed, but fortunately significant coastal flooding is not
expected.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for MAZ007-019-020-
     022>024.
RI...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ232-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ231-233>235-
     237-250-251-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/BL/Chai
NEAR TERM...BL/Chai
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/BL
MARINE...WTB/Chai
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
454 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

CTZ002>004-MAZ004>006-012>014-017-018-021-026-RIZ001>005-200900-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
454 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Frost Advisory is likely for the normal cool outlying locations
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Frost Advisory is likely for the normal cool outlying locations
on Sunday night into Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ002-003-008>011-200900-
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
454 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Frost Advisory till 8 AM today.

Frost and freeze headlines are likely needed for tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Frost Advisory is likely for Sunday night into Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ020-RIZ006-007-200900-
Southern Bristol MA-Washington RI-Newport RI-
454 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts
and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.

In addition, Frost Advisory is likely for the normal cool outlying locations
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.

In addition, Frost Advisory is likely for the normal cool outlying
locations Sunday night into Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ007-019-022>024-RIZ008-200900-
Eastern Essex MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
454 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ015-016-200900-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
454 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-231-233>237-250-251-256-200900-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
454 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ232-254-255-200900-
Nantucket Sound-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
454 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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