Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
329 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot weather continues through midweek, then moderates to very
warm for the weekend and early next week. Humidity will
decrease for the middle and end of this week. A few showers
and storms possible Thursday afternoon into early Friday
morning. Dry and comfortable heading into this weekend. Better
chance for rain early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms mainly south of the
Mass Pike in CT, RI, and SE MA associated with a cold front
moving through the region. Expect this cold front to move
offshore early tonight. A lingering shower or thunderstorm may
affect the south coast and Islands until after midnight.

Somewhat drier air filters in overnight. Afternoon dew points
over Northern and Central NY were in the 50s. This may be enough
to bring values below 60 in much of Northern Mass, while areas
south of the Mass Pike will have dew points in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure builds over New England Wednesday,
maintaining rain-free weather. Dew points will remain in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. So humidity will remain lower than today,
but still noticeable. Mixing will reach near 800 mb, where temps
of 12-13C will support max sfc temps 90 to 95F except 80s along
the South Coast.

The expected Heat Index values will also be in the lower 90s.
This will be less than Heat Advisory Thresholds, so no headline
extension is expected.

A shower/thunderstorm may reach the Berkshire East Slopes
Wednesday evening before dissipating. Otherwise a rain-free
night with fair/ptly cloudy skies. Dew points climb a notch and
will be in the 60s, possibly near 70 on the Cape/Islands. Expect
min temps of 65 to 75F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Highlights...

* Hot, but not excessively hot to round out the week. Slightly less
  hot for the weekend.

* Sct'd showers/t'storms Thursday into Friday morning. Dry and less
  humid for this upcoming weekend.

Temperatures...

Seasonable afternoon temperatures across southern New England
average between 82F and 85F. As of late, afternoon temperatures have
been well into the low and middle 90s - even reaching the upper 90s.
A bit of relief from the heat arrives for the second half of the
workweek, but it will still be plenty warm. 850 mb temperatures will
range between +15C and +18C for Thursday afternoon. Compare that to
the +20C at 850 mb on Tuesday. Even still, a few locations could
reach the upper 80s and low 90s Thursday afternoon. Heading into
Friday and the up coming weekend those daily highs will return to
the middle 80s to the upper 70s along the coast. Dewpoints are a bit
more manageable in the low 60s inland and upper 60s at the coast.
Early next week a bit more relief will come with forecast highs
Monday through Wednesday in the low 80s to upper 70s, though it will
not be a sunny or dry period.

Precipitation...

Much of the first half of Thursday will be dry. Chance for a few
afternoon showers or a thunderstorm are possible - models indicate a
few showers could redevelop along the coast as we move into Friday
morning. Looking ahead to the weekend we are largely dry as high
pressure builds in through Sunday. Then, guidance shows a bit more
activity for early and middle next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence

VFR. Still could have some lingering shower/storms across the
South Coast the first half of the night as a cold front stalls.
If a shower or storm moves through, that could bring a brief
period of MVFR cigs/IFR vsbys.

Wednesday...High confidence.

VFR. Light SW winds. Isolated shower/thunderstorm along the
Berkshire East Slope late in the day. These are not likely to
affect the CT Valley, but will need to be monitored.

Wednesday night...High confidence.

VFR. Light wind.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front moves over the waters during the night, with
scattered showers/thunderstorms. This may reduce vsbys to 1-3 nm
in heavier downpours. Weak high pressure then moves over the
waters, bringing light wind and seas less than 5 ft.

A Small Craft Advisory continues to 8 PM for marginal rough seas.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Last occurrence of 100+ temperatures...

BOS...07/22/2011
PVD...07/22/2011
BDL...07/21/2019
ORH...07/04/1911

Daily High Temperature Records

July 28th
BOS 99 in 1949
PVD 99 in 2020 (prev. 1949)
BDL 96 in 1931, 1949, 1970 and 2016
ORH 95 in 1892

Daily Warmest Low Temperature Records

July 28th...
BOS 78 in 1963
PVD 75 in 1919
BDL 74 in 1919
ORH 73 in 1931

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MAZ017>021.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ004>007-
     010>016-022-026.
RI...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/Gaucher
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Gaucher
AVIATION...WTB/Gaucher
MARINE...WTB/Gaucher
CLIMATE...

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
404 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

CTZ004-RIZ001>004-282045-
Windham CT-Northwest Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Southeast Providence RI-
404 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Canterbury, or near Windham, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will accompany this
storm. Heavy rainfall may result in pockets of minor street flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Providence, Warwick, Cranston, Coventry, West Warwick, Johnston,
Windham, Plainfield, Killingly, Scituate, Brooklyn, West Greenwich,
Canterbury, Foster, Sterling, Hampton and Scotland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors when this storm approaches. Winds may be strong enough to
produce minor damage, such as a few downed branches.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 7212 4174 7217 4184 7141 4169 7143
      4169 7144 4168 7144 4163 7178 4164 7179
      4165 7184 4163 7196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 254DEG 29KT 4168 7204

Frank

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
411 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

MAZ018-019-282045-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Western Plymouth MA-
411 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM...

At 410 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kingston, or 9 miles northwest of Plymouth, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will accompany this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Plymouth, Marshfield, Pembroke, Duxbury, Kingston, Carver, Halifax
and Plympton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors when this storm approaches. Winds may be strong enough to
produce minor damage, such as a few downed branches.

&&

LAT...LON 4193 7080 4205 7083 4210 7065 4208 7064
      4205 7066 4202 7062 4204 7066 4202 7068
      4201 7065 4202 7061 4201 7060 4199 7063
      4201 7067 4200 7071 4197 7067 4198 7065
      4195 7065 4195 7058 4193 7056
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 254DEG 28KT 4198 7075

Frank

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