Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

521 
WWUS85 KBOU 242249
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
449 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Very warm and dry conditions are expected Friday afternoon. A
powerful storm system well north of Colorado will increase west
winds across the northern half of Colorado throughout the
afternoon and evening hours. Red flag conditions are expected
Friday afternoon for strong winds and low relative humidity. The
strongest winds and driest conditions are expected east of the
Divide across Larimer County, though favorable conditions for
rapid fire growth are possible across all of the warned area.

COZ211>218-251200-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0025.200925T1800Z-200926T0200Z/
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
449 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT
FRIDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND NORTHERN FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS. FIRE WEATHER ZONES 211-218...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 211, 212, 213, 214, 215, 
  216, 217 and 218.

* Timing...12 PM through 8 PM Friday.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Rapid growth of existing fires and new fire starts 
  will be possible due to the gusty winds and very low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

579 
WWUS85 KBOU 251014
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
414 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Very warm and dry conditions are expected Friday and Saturday 
afternoons. A powerful storm system well north of Colorado will 
increase west winds across the northern half of Colorado 
throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Red flag conditions 
are expected Friday afternoon for strong winds and low relative 
humidity. The strongest winds and driest conditions are expected 
east of the Divide across Larimer County, though favorable 
conditions for rapid fire growth are possible across all of the 
warned area. 

Strong winds will again occur on Saturday afternoon, this time 
spreading across the plains along the Wyoming border. Relative 
humidity looks to be low enough for a fire weather watch. Across 
the high country, winds will be strong with gusts to 35 mph, but 
relative humidity values are for now expected to remain above 15 
percent in those areas.

COZ211>218-251815-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0025.200925T1800Z-200926T0200Z/
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
414 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND NORTHERN FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS. FIRE WEATHER ZONES 211-218...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 211, 212, 213, 214, 215, 
  216, 217 and 218.

* Timing...12 PM through 8 PM Friday.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Rapid growth of existing fires and new fire starts 
  will be possible due to the gusty winds and very low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ238-242-248-250-251-251815-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.A.0018.200926T1800Z-200927T0100Z/
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Northeast Weld County-Logan County-Sedgwick County-
Phillips County-
414 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR fire
weather zones 238, 242, 248, 250, and 251...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Fire Weather
Watch FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in effect from
Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 238, 242, 248, 250 and 251.

* Timing...Saturday from Noon to 7 PM.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...New fire starts will be possible due to the gusty 
  winds and very low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

844 
WWUS85 KBOU 251845
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1245 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Very warm and dry conditions are expected today and Saturday. 
Red flag conditions are expected this afternoon for strong winds 
and low relative humidity. The strongest winds and driest 
conditions are expected east of the Divide across Larimer County, 
though favorable conditions for rapid fire growth are possible 
across all of the warned area.

Strong winds will again occur on Saturday as well. Gusty winds 
will develop in the foothills and South Park early Saturday 
morning, then spread across the plains along the Wyoming border in
the afternoon. Relative humidities will remain fairly low with 
minimal recovery in the foothills overnight. Consequently, a Red 
Flag Warning has been issued for these areas.

COZ214>216-260230-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.W.0026.200926T1500Z-200927T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200926T0200Z/
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
1245 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FRONT RANGE 
FOOTHILLS and south park... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR 
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FRONT RANGE 
FOOTHILLS and south park... 

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag
Warning FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in effect
from 9 AM to 7 PM MDT Saturday.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 214, 215 and 216.

* Timing...12 PM through 8 PM this evening, then Saturday from 9
  AM to 7 PM MDT.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph this
  afternoon, west 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph Saturday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Rapid growth of existing fires and new fire starts 
  will be possible due to the gusty winds and very low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ238-242-248-250-251-260230-
/O.UPG.KBOU.FW.A.0018.200926T1800Z-200927T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.W.0026.200926T1800Z-200927T0100Z/
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Northeast Weld County-Logan County-Sedgwick County-
Phillips County-
1245 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR Larimer County Below 6000 Feet, 
Northern Weld County, Logan County, Sedgwick County and Phillips 
County...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag
Warning FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 238, 242, 248, 250 and 251.

* Timing...Saturday from Noon to 7 PM.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...New fire starts will be possible due to the gusty 
  winds and very low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ211>213-217-218-260200-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200926T0200Z/
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
1245 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS OF JACKSON, GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 211, 212, 213, 217 and 218.

* Timing...12 PM through 8 PM this evening.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

* Impacts...Rapid growth of existing fires and new fire starts 
  will be possible due to the gusty winds and very low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

573 
WWUS85 KBOU 260125
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
725 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Very warm and dry conditions are expected today and Saturday. Red
flag conditions are expected this afternoon for strong winds and
low relative humidity. The strongest winds and driest conditions
are expected east of the Divide across Larimer County, though
favorable conditions for rapid fire growth are possible across
all of the warned area.

Strong winds will again occur on Saturday as well. Gusty winds
will develop in the foothills and South Park early Saturday
morning, then spread across the plains along the Wyoming border
and southward in the afternoon. Relative humidities will remain 
fairly low with minimal recovery in the foothills overnight. 
Consequently, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas.

COZ239-243-244-260930-
/O.EXA.KBOU.FW.W.0026.200926T1800Z-200927T0100Z/
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
725 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR BOULDER, JEFFERSON, SOUTHERN
WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag
Warning FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 239, 243 and 244.

* Timing...Saturday from Noon to 7 PM.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...New fire starts will be possible due to the gusty 
  winds and very low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ214>216-260930-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200926T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0026.200926T1500Z-200927T0100Z/
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
725 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH PARK... 

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM MDT 
SATURDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FRONT RANGE 
FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 214, 215 and 216.

* Timing...12 PM through 8 PM this evening, then Saturday from 9 
  AM to 7 PM MDT.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Rapid growth of existing fires and new fire starts 
  will be possible due to the gusty winds and very low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ211>213-217-218-260230-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200926T0200Z/
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
725 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 211, 212, 213, 217 and 218.

* Timing...12 PM through 8 PM this evening.

* Winds...West 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

* Impacts...Rapid growth of existing fires and new fire starts 
  will be possible due to the gusty winds and very low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ238-242-248-250-251-260930-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0026.200926T1800Z-200927T0100Z/
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Northeast Weld County-Logan County-Sedgwick County-
Phillips County-
725 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LARIMER COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHERN WELD, LOGAN,
SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 238, 242, 248, 250 and 251.

* Timing...Saturday from Noon to 7 PM.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...New fire starts will be possible due to the gusty 
  winds and very low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

171 
WWUS85 KBOU 260159
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
759 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Very warm and dry conditions are expected today and Saturday. Red
flag conditions are expected this afternoon for strong winds and
low relative humidity. The strongest winds and driest conditions
are expected east of the Divide across Larimer County, though
favorable conditions for rapid fire growth are possible across
all of the warned area.

Strong winds will again occur on Saturday as well. Gusty winds
will develop in the foothills and South Park early Saturday
morning, then spread across the plains along the Wyoming border
and southward in the afternoon. Relative humidities will remain
fairly low with minimal recovery in the foothills overnight.
Consequently, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas.

COZ214>216-261000-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200926T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0026.200926T1500Z-200927T0100Z/
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
759 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH
PARK...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 214, 215 and 216.

* Timing...12 PM through 8 PM this evening, then Saturday from 9 
  AM to 7 PM MDT.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Rapid growth of existing fires and new fire starts 
  will be possible due to the gusty winds and very low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ211>213-217-218-260300-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200926T0200Z/
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
759 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...

Weather conditions that prompted the Red Flag Warning have ended.
However, elevated fire weather conditions still exist and caution
is advised. 

$$

COZ238-239-242>244-248-250-251-261000-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0026.200926T1800Z-200927T0100Z/
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-
Morgan County-Logan County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
759 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LARIMER COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHERN WELD, LOGAN,
SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 238, 239, 242, 243, 244, 
  248, 250 and 251.

* Timing...Saturday from Noon to 7 PM.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...New fire starts will be possible due to the gusty 
  winds and very low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
757 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Forecast remains largely unchanged this evening. A few high based
showers over the foothills across the front range earlier this
afternoon have since dissipated. The Mullen fire in Wyoming has
produced a bit more smoke this evening, but most of the area had
at least some smoke already so this hasn't been too much of an
issue. Otherwise, expecting a quiet night as high pressure
continues to build over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 712 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Quiet weather tonight and tomorrow as high pressure at the
surface and aloft continues building over the state. Dry
northwesterly flow aloft will remain in place which will bring any
smoke produced by the Mullen and Cameron Peak wildfires down over
the I-25 urban corridor. Fires are generating small amounts of
smoke this afternoon, so impacts tomorrow should be minimal.
Temperatures aloft will be warming, which will lead to afternoon
highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the plains. Winds in
the Colorado high country and across the plains are expected to
remain light as pressure gradients remain weak. So, in spite of
the warm temperatures and low afternoon humidities, no fire
weather highlights are necessary for Thursday. More wind is
expected Friday, see below. Mostly sunny conditions with the warm
temperatures are the main story for tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Warm and dry conditions will continue for the foreseeable future.
In the extended there will be some fire wx concerns and chance of
a cool down which means a return to near normal only. Full
details below.

A ridge of high pressure is squished south into Arizona and Mexico
on Friday, complete with 500 mb temps as warm as -4 degC.  A strong
long wave trough across Canada puts Colorado on the southern end of
increased westerly flow aloft.  The west flow at all levels of
course will be very dry, and lead to downslope warming east of the
Divide.  Expect another high of 90 in Denver, and upper 80s to low
90s across the plains.  The mountain valleys and eastern foothills
will also be warm with highs in the 70s.  With a little warming
aloft, an inversion develops around 600 mb, capping any chance of
convection. All areas will be dry. The increased westerly flow is
most pronounced across the mountain valleys and closer to the
Wyoming border. Elevated fire wx conditions are expected, more
details in the fire wx discussion below.

On Saturday and Sunday the west coast ridge builds north of 40N,
which helps the anomalously deep trough over the Great Lakes to dig
into the northeast U.S.  Flow over Colorado will respond by becoming
northwest over time.  The strongest flow remains northeast of
Colorado, so fire wx issues should be reduced Sunday afternoon.
Cooler air is advected from the northwest as 700 mb temps drop into
the +5 to +8 degC range by Sunday afternoon. Prior to the cool
air advection, Saturday's highs will again be considered hot for
end of September, with upper 80s expected across the plains and
60s to lower 70s in the mountain valleys. Before the 700 mb
cooling arrives, the northwest flow will drive a cool front into
Colorado sometime later on Saturday. Highs on Sunday should be
near or a bit warmer than seasonal normals with highs in the mid
to upper 70s across the plains and 60s in the high country. Flow
aloft is very dry, and the air behind the front is also very dry,
thus still no precipitation chances anywhere this weekend.

The trough pulls even further northeast into the northeast U.S. by
Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is not confident in the evolution of
temperatures next week, but all available guidance agrees it will
be dry across north central and northeast Colorado through at
least Tuesday. GEFS mean is cooler Monday and even more so Tuesday
as cold air filters in on the backside of that massive trough
across the eastern U.S. EC has another hot day on tap Monday with
highs well into the 80s. Will go with low 80s guidance given the
expected strong northwest flow. On Tuesday all ensemble guidance
has highs closer to normal, with highs around 70 across the plains
and 60s in the high country. Blended guidance looks okay there.
Every single ensemble member of the EC and GEFS keeps our area dry
through at least Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 757 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020

VFR conditions are expected tonight into Thursday evening. Winds
this evening will continue to transition to the typical drainage
flow. Expecting winds to remain south/southeasterly for KDEN/KAPA
tomorrow afternoon. Depending on fire activity, some
slant range/surface visibility impacts are possible during the
afternoon but this seems unlikely at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Friday is looking even more favorable for fire wx
conditions.  With increased west flow, and continued dry at all
levels of the atmosphere, have opted to hoist a fire weather watch
for Friday from 12 PM through 8 PM. RH recovery Thursday night
into early Friday is poor across the northern mountains and
foothills with just 35-50 percent across the eastern foothills and
higher elevations of Jackson County. West winds will pick up
throughout the day Friday as deep mixing occurs with west
downslope flow and far above normal temperatures. RH will drop to
around 15 percent across all but the highest elevations across the
northern high country. Winds east of US-85 across the plains
should remain well below red flag criteria. Park and Summit
Counties may have more marginal winds Friday afternoon as the
pressure gradient is strongest the further north one goes.

Dry conditions continue through Tuesday but slightly weaker winds
will reduce fire danger a bit.  Cooler temperatures are expected
Sunday and again Monday, but still above normal.  Winds should
remain below criteria but may be close along the Wyoming border
Monday.  A much more significant cool down is possible Tuesday with
a return to near normal temps and minimum RH AOA 20 percent.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for COZ211-213-215-217-218.

&&

UPDATE...Hiris
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Schlatter
AVIATION...Hiris
FIRE WEATHER...Schlatter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1052 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020

COZ030>051-241700-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1052 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through Sunday,
leading to increasing fire danger. The greatest threat appears to
be in the mountains on Friday when wind gusts up to 40 mph are
possible.  Breezy afternoons will continue through the weekend
over northern Larimer and northern Weld Counties, but with minimal
impact.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.