Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
355 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020

Slight ridging aloft will be over Colorado today as another dry
day is expected. High temperatures will be around 3 to 5 degrees
warmer than yesterday. The main concern for today will be the
elevated fire weather conditions expected across the eastern
plains. Highs in the mid to upper 60s with dew points in the teens
will lead to relative humidities dropping to 14 to 15 percent. In
addition, southwest to west winds will increase this afternoon
gusting up to 30 mph especially across the northern-most counties
in Colorado. This means areas north and east of Fort Morgan will
be very close to reaching Red Flag Warning criteria. We
considered issuing a Red Flag Warning for Logan, Sedgwick, and
Phillips Counties but decided against it due to recent moisture
and being at the low end of thresholds. However, if conditions
end up being slightly drier or windier than originally forecast, a
Red Flag Warning may be issued late this morning or during the
early afternoon.

Tonight will be relatively mild. A weak cold front will push
through the plains during the late overnight hours but dry
conditions will continue with very little moisture in place.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020

We'll be in for a quiet period for Thursday through Saturday as a
warm dry ridge moves over the Rockies. The flow aloft will
decrease gradually Thursday, so there will still be some mountain
winds, then we'll have lighter west to southwest flow for Friday
and Saturday. It looks like the warming is coming a bit faster
than expected, so we'll raise the highs for Thursday a bit. Friday
and Saturday should be near 70 on the plains, and Denver's
Saturday record of 72 is threatened. It will be warm and dry, but
lighter winds will limit the fire danger for the plains on these
days.

As we head into early next week, a trough will be developing west
of us. There's pretty good agreement on a weak shortwave in WSW
flow about Sunday night. While this doesn't look very strong
dynamically, it does appear to bring some Pacific moisture with it
and interact with a weak boundary producing cyclogenesis over
eastern Colorado. This suggests a quick shot of showers and wind
with some cooling, though it's questionable whether it will get
cold enough to snow at lower elevations. It may just be several
showery windy hours Sunday evening. The mountains should get a
little snow out of this as it passes. There are divergent
solutions after that. Decent agreement on westerly flow aloft with
a break and then some more moisture embedded in that flow. The
operational EC is now keeping this westerly flow that would limit
any chance of showers on the plains, while the GFS has a shortwave
passing north of us that could give another transient area of
precipitation and probably a little more cooling about Monday
night. Our blended temperatures and low PoPs seem appropriate at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020

VFR conditions persist through tonight. Drainage flow will weaken
after sunrise as winds become more southwesterly. During the early
afternoon, the boundary layer will become well-mixed and gusty
west to northwest winds will develop. Gusts could reach 25 knots
for a brief period but will not not last for very long. Winds
trend toward drainage tonight but a weak cold front could shift
winds northeasterly toward sunrise.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Danielson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
412 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020

COZ030>051-051115-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
412 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The combination of relative humidities dropping to near 15
percent in addition to southwest to west winds gusting up to 30
mph will create elevated fire weather conditions across the
eastern plains this afternoon. Any burning is discouraged
especially across areas north and east of Fort Morgan. Otherwise,
dry conditions will continue with no other hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Dry and mild weather is expected through Saturday. The next chance
for precipitation will be Sunday when snow is likely in the
mountains. There will be a chance of rain or snow along with a
windy period on the plains, mainly Sunday evening. For Monday and
Tuesday it will be a bit cooler with a lesser chance for showers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

Danielson/Gimmestad