Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Birmingham, AL

834 
WWUS54 KBMX 102046
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
346 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ALC057-125-102115-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-200810T2115Z/
Tuscaloosa AL-Fayette AL-
346 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA AND SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 346 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of
Ashcraft Corner, or 11 miles southeast of Fayette, moving southeast
at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Stone Wall and New Lexington. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 8787 3363 8783 3365 8773 3354 8760
      3346 8767 3344 8776
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 314DEG 6KT 3354 8775 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

89^GSatterwhite

488 
WWUS54 KBMX 102110
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
410 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ALC057-125-102120-
/O.EXP.KBMX.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-200810T2115Z/
Tuscaloosa AL-Fayette AL-
410 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA AND
SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Birmingham.

LAT...LON 3356 8787 3363 8783 3365 8773 3354 8760
      3346 8767 3344 8776
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 314DEG 6KT 3351 8772 

$$

89^GSatterwhite

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1242 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1158 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/

Today through Tuesday.

Features.

Broad ridging in the upper levels remain over the southern third
of the country late this morning with a subtle weakness analyzed
over the Tennessee Valley. A more contracted ridge was analyzed in
the mid levels with a shortwave trough moving east over the
Central Ohio River Valley.

In the low levels, ridging was centered to the east of the area
but its influence was more pronounced. Low-level troughing was
evident in the analysis to our northeast over North Carolina.

Surface analysis depicts lower surface pressures generally north
of Interstate 20 with even lower values further to the north and
the west.

The 10.12Z BMX sounding contains a more moist profile compared to
late last week. A general northerly flow prevailed above 300 mb
with some zonal flow from 400 to 300 mb. The lower levels had
lighter and more variable winds generally from the west to the
north. There was some dry air above a subsidence inversion around
550 mb but wet microburst conditions are not optimal.

Forecast.

Expect an earlier start to developing shower and thunderstorm
activity with a few storms forming at this hour. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are expected with best chances
northeast and far south through mid afternoon as outflow from
convection further north moves into the area while sea breeze
activity is expected to progress further inland late this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Highs will reach into the
mid 90s today with winds generally from the west up to 10 mph
outside of convective activity.

Showers and some thunderstorms will persist tonight and expect
best chances across the eastern half of the forecast area as
outflows and sea breeze-related boundaries continue to move and
interact across the area. Lows will range from the lower 70s east
to the mid 70s west. Light and variable winds are expected.

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as we
continue to experience several low-level boundaries around to
provide surface convergence under strong heating. The persisting
weakness in the ridging aloft will help to permit convective
development, especially in the afternoon and into the evening
hours. Highs will range from the low 90s east to the mid 90s west.
Winds will be from the northwest 5-10 mph outside of convective
activity.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0348 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/

Wednesday through Sunday.

The upcoming wet pattern may be on a bit of a delay. Wednesday
appeared to be the first in a series of days with high rain
chances, but that seems to have changed. Models are now
indicating the shortwave ridge from Tuesday will carry over into
Wednesday, putting a dent in rain chances. An area of lower
coverage may be centered in our forecast area, with enhanced
activity to our southeast and northwest, where 500 mb disturbances
are indicated. POPs have been reduced from 60 percent to 40
percent for a good chunk of the area.

The aforementioned shortwave ridge axis is expected to be overcome
by falling heights on Thursday with PWATs increasing to 2.0-2.2
inches. This is supportive of 70 POPs, assuming the setup
verifies. A similar setup is forecast for Friday, but models begin
to diverge somewhat for Saturday and especially Sunday with the
possibility of a shortwave trough moving to our east. The National
Blend seems much too high with POPs for Sunday, and our forecast
of 40-50 percent, which may be too high as well, is 10-20 percent
below the National Blend.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and into
the evening hours. Will carry VCTS at all terminals through early
this evening. Low-level winds will be generally below 10 kts
outside of convection and bases should remain VFR outside of
showers and storms.

Expect lingering showers with a few storms overnight with best
chances across the eastern portion of the forecast area. Potential
is too low to mention at some sites. Low-level winds will be
light outside of showers and storms. Cloud bases should be VFR
outside of showers and storms.

A few sites may experience a brief reduction in visibility before
sunrise on Tuesday morning, especially if those areas had
rainfall recently. Expect more showers and storms to develop
toward midday on Tuesday. Cloud bases should be VFR outside of
convective activity with low level winds generally less than 10
kts outside of convection.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture content will increase this week, and scattered showers
and storms can be expected through Wednesday. The greatest
coverage today will probably be across our eastern half. The
pattern should become even wetter for Thursday and Friday with
rain chances in the 60-70 percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  93  72  94  72 /  60  40  20  40  40
Anniston    72  94  73  95  73 /  60  40  20  40  40
Birmingham  74  94  75  94  74 /  50  40  20  40  40
Tuscaloosa  75  96  75  95  74 /  30  40  20  40  40
Calera      72  93  73  94  73 /  40  40  20  40  40
Auburn      72  92  72  93  72 /  60  40  30  40  40
Montgomery  74  95  75  95  74 /  40  40  30  40  40
Troy        73  94  74  94  73 /  40  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
445 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-111245-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
445 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Afternoon heat indices may approach 105 degrees briefly during the
afternoon for areas along and southwest of a Tuscaloosa to Montgomery
line this afternoon. Take extra precautions while outside.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Outside of any cooling effects from showers and storms, heat indices
may briefly reach 105 degrees each afternoon through Thursday.
Exercise extra precautions while outside.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
239 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ALZ019-102015-
Calhoun AL-
239 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM CDT...

At 239 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ohatchee, or 9 miles northwest of Cobb Town. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
West End-Cobb Town, Ohatchee and Anniston Army Depot.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3376 8595 3370 8589 3364 8588 3361 8600
      3362 8602 3365 8603 3366 8605 3367 8605
      3368 8610 3371 8612 3377 8604
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 346DEG 2KT 3370 8602

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
259 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ALZ020-102030-
Cherokee AL-
259 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gaylesville, or near Cedar Bluff. This storm was nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cedar Bluff, Gaylesville, Eastern Weiss Lake, Cornwall Furnace Park,
Waterhouse and Fullerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8547 3414 8543 3413 8544 3424 8560
      3432 8560 3433 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 313DEG 2KT 3426 8551

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
328 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ALZ013-023-102100-
Fayette AL-Tuscaloosa AL-
328 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA AND
SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Ashcraft Corner, or 9 miles southeast of Fayette,
moving southeast at 5 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stone Wall and New Lexington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 8789 3365 8781 3364 8767 3356 8761
      3347 8764 3342 8776 3351 8784 3352 8784
      3353 8786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 314DEG 6KT 3358 8777

89^GSatterwhite