River Flood Warning 58, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
624 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020/
Today through Friday.

At this hour, we have widespread areas of rain across most of
Central Alabama, except for the extreme southeast (Pike/Barbour)
where conditions are cloudy but currently dry. In the lower levels,
we have a developing low over the Louisiana coast. This low is
expected to move northeast this morning quickly toward Southern
Alabama and Northwest Florida toward midday. By this evening, this
low continues at warp speed across Southern Georgia and into the
Atlantic. High pressure in the Upper Midwest at this hour will push
southeast toward Kansas through the Great Lakes by this evening then
building over the Deep South on Friday. During this morning as the
low approaches, widespread rains will continue and spread into the
remaining counties. During the afternoon, as the low speeds away,
rain activity should begin to decrease in the northwest through the
afternoon. For this evening, a few lingering areas of rain will
remain in the southeast before much drier and colder air pushes in
from the northwest. Friday looks much improved with the much
welcomed appearance of the "great bright orb" in the sky, albeit
chilly.

The current flash flood watch area and time frame (through 00z Fri.)
looks good with the 0.5 through 1.75 inches of additional rainfall
expected today. Since the southeast 2 counties have been relatively
dry overnight, will forgo adding them to the watch at this time, but
will monitor the overall progression of activity today.

08

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020/
Friday Night through Thursday.

Drier and colder air continues to build in Friday night behind
the departing front. Saturday morning lows will be in the upper
20s for much of Central AL. Dry conditions will persist through
the weekend as high pressure slides across the Southeastern CONUS.

Another trough and associated surface low move through the Great
Plains on Sunday. This system will track northeastward into the Ohio
Valley, pushing another cold front into Central AL early next week.
Rain showers could begin to spread across our area late Sunday night
into the overnight hours as the warm front is lifted across the
state. Widespread rain is expected Monday as the cold front moves
through. Instability will remain very low, which will limit the
potential for any thunderstorms.

The cold front pushes south and east of Central AL Tuesday morning,
ending any significant rain chances. Models show a secondary trough
swinging through on Wednesday, which could brush our far northern
counties with some precip, but moisture return will be limited.
Therefore, I'll keep a small chance for rain in the forecast for
Wednesday, and clearing it out Wednesday night into Thursday as
drier air moves in.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

IFR and lower cigs are noted across C AL this AM. Cigs will
remain low as widespread rains are expected to continue thru the
morning. This is thanks to a developing low near the LA coast
that will move NE across S AL toward midday and off the GA coast
by this evening. Rain coverage will decrease from the NW this
afternoon as the system pulls E. Cigs will linger into the evening
though as drier/cooler air filters into the area. Winds will be
breezy today. VFR conditions developing from 4-8z for all but TOI.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread rain moves back into Central Alabama today. The rain will
start to decrease in coverage from the northwest this afternoon.
Drier air moves in Friday and Saturday with relative humidity
values in the 30s, but the ground remains saturated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     45  27  48  25  56 / 100  20   0   0   0
Anniston    46  28  47  25  57 / 100  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  47  27  48  28  56 / 100  20   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  48  30  49  28  57 / 100  10   0   0   0
Calera      49  29  48  27  56 / 100  20   0   0   0
Auburn      49  32  48  28  56 / 100  30  10   0   0
Montgomery  54  33  51  29  58 / 100  30   0   0   0
Troy        55  35  50  29  57 / 100  50  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Bullock...Chambers...Chilton...Clay...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Greene...Hale...Lee...Lowndes...
Macon...Marengo...Montgomery...Perry...Randolph...Russell...
Sumter...Tallapoosa.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
419 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-211330-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
419 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas south of a line from
Wedowee to Clanton to Livingston. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches
are possible through 6 pm today.

Many river basins across Central Alabama are above flood stage.
Please see the latest river statements for specific details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

River basins will continue to experience flooding over the next
several days. Please see the latest river statements for specific
details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may become
necessary on today for flooding.