River Flood Warning 11, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
330 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

.UPDATE...
Afternoon Update.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Aloft, a potent upper level trough extended from the Minnesota
south into the Ozarks of Arkansas. To our southeast, an expansive
deep-layer ridge was positioned to the southwest of Bermuda.

Toward the surface, a cold front extended from far Southeast
Canada that extended southwest across the Ohio River Valley and
into the Mid South Region and stretched south across Central
Mississippi into the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. A pre-frontal
squall line extended from our far northeast counties to the south
across our south-central counties.

05

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0330 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/

Tonight and Tomorrow.

The squall line will continue to pose a straight-line wind damage
and tornado threat with circulations that develop within the
line. The weak capping aloft and more moderate instability have
not been sufficient to permit much in the way of discrete
sustained convection ahead of the line of storms so far but that
potential remains, especially across our far southeast counties
over the next few hours where low-level instability is the
greatest.

Expect improving conditions behind the line of storms though
lightning has persisted about 50 miles behind the line and expect
this trend to continue. Gradient winds are gradually relaxing
behind the prefrontal trough but gusts to 30 mph will remain
possible through early evening.

Expect clouds to persist across much of the area tonight with
much cooler temperatures as drier and cooler air moves in from the
west and northwest. Lows tonight will range from around 40 north
to the mid 50's southeast.

For Sunday, the upper trough rapidly accelerates further
northeast with a southwest flow aloft persisting in its wake.
Shortwave ridging will quickly slide northeast from over Texas
overnight into the Mid Atlantic region by late Sunday. Toward the
surface, the surface cold front is expected to stall across South
Georgia and the Central Florida Panhandle tonight before returning
northwest as a warm front during the day tomorrow.

Expect a brief break in the rain and storm activity later tonight
followed by a return of isolated showers and storms across our
far southeast during the day Sunday. Temperatures will be much
cooler tomorrow compared to today with highs ranging from near 60
northwest to the upper 60's far southeast.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0330 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/

Monday through Saturday.

The diffuse warm front will lift further into the Tennessee
Valley Region during the day Tuesday and into the Southern Ohio
River Valley on Wednesday. Fast southwest flow aloft will maintain
an unsettled pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms
persisting through midweek. The greatest coverage will be in the
vicinity of the warm front as it advances northward with time.

As the warm front pulls further north of the area, expect
unsettled conditions to persist with isolated showers possible
Thursday and into Friday. Rain chances will increase late Friday
through Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Kept PoP's below 50% for this time frame due to the time frame
being so far out.

Thunderstorm activity looks to accompany the activity with the
northward moving warm front Sunday through Wednesday and there may
be some opportunity for a few stronger storms with the warm
front's advance north. Another opportunity for a few strong storms
will exist as the cold front moves across the area at the end of
the time frame.

The additional rainfall forecast for this period will continue to
maintain saturated soils and could contribute to continued rises
on area waterways and potentially lead to some minor flooding
later next week.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Hazardous flying conditions through late afternoon as a line of
strong to severe storms moves west to east across the area. A few
isolated supercells may develop ahead of the line and pose a
damaging wind and tornado risk in addition to the higher damaging
wind and tornado risk from the line of storms.

Expect conditions to improve as the line passes with most of the
TS activity confined to within 50 or so miles on either side of
the line. SHRA is expected to linger behind the line through much
of the afternoon.

A tightening pressure gradient will continue to produce gusty
low-level winds 25-35 kts outside of convection with gusts
potentially over 60 kts with the strongest convection. LLWS will
also persist through early evening as the low-level jet and strong
mid level jet continue to move across the Tennessee Valley
region.

Low-level winds and wind shear will gradually wane with time from
west to east late this afternoon and evening. TS potential will
decrease sufficiently generally 2-4 hours behind the line to not
mention.

Skies will remain BKN/OVC at most sites overnight. Low-level
winds should remain up to discourage notable decreases in
visibility but potentially could occur especially west and south.
CIG's could decrease toward the end of the period south as the
front stalls to our southeast overnight and starts to return north
as a warm front through the day Sunday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong storm system is moving across the area with widespread
rainfall. Expect gradually decreasing winds this evening with a
break in the rain late tonight into early Sunday morning. The
break will be short lived however as the cold front stalls to the
southeast and returns north as a warm front during the day Sunday.
An unsettled pattern with more rain and a few thunderstorms are
forecast to expand north across the area through the day Sunday
and persisting into at least midweek. There are no fire weather
concerns at this time.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     45  61  49  64  58 /  50  10  30  60  80
Anniston    47  63  53  66  61 /  50  10  50  70  80
Birmingham  46  63  51  66  62 /  30  10  30  70  80
Tuscaloosa  44  63  51  67  63 /  10   0  20  70  80
Calera      46  63  54  65  62 /  30  10  40  70  70
Auburn      50  65  59  69  62 /  80  40  70  70  50
Montgomery  49  66  59  71  64 /  50  30  70  80  50
Troy        53  68  61  74  64 /  60  40  70  70  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

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