Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1259 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

.UPDATE...
Long Term Update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1109 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020/

Through Wednesday.

Very little change to the short term forecast as a dry front is
currently working its way across the area. The only noticeable
change at this hour is the gusting north winds that will bring an
additional cold shot to much of the state overnight. Most
temperature readings are expected to be solidly in the 30s by
morning with sheltered spots into the upper 20s. A freeze warning
has been issued for several counties that are likely to
experience prolonged hours in the upper 20s. Otherwise,
temperatures will gradually warm for the remainder of the work
week.

17/KLAWS

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 1254 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020/

The long term pattern features building high pressure along the
eastern coast resulting in sunny skies and cool to mild
temperatures. Only made minor tweaks by updating with some of the
latest data, but the forecast remains largely unchanged. A weak
front early next week may bring our next chance of rain if it can
overcome the dry airmass in place.

86

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 0252 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020/

Wednesday night through Monday.

Ridging continues to build across the Southeastern CONUS Wednesday
night through Thursday as the surface high shifts eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic states. This will lead to continued drier weather for
Central AL as weak northeasterly shifts to weak easterly flow.
Temperatures Thursday morning will still be on the cooler side with
potential frost development across much of the northeastern and
cooler valley locations. Our far northeastern counties could again
drop below freezing for a few hours Thursday morning. By Friday
morning, the easterly flow should start to modify our air mass,
though the probabilistic guidance still hits at around a 50% chance
of near or below freezing temperatures in those northeastern valley
areas. Elsewhere across Central AL, we should see temperatures
moderate into the low 40s for Friday morning.

Easterly flow continues over the upcoming weekend as weak zonal flow
aloft develops. Just upstream, models begin to pick up on a
shortwave moving through Northern California and across the Great
Basin sometime Saturday through Sunday. There is substantial
variations in both the operational runs and ensembles of the GFS and
Euro in just how deep this trough gets as it crosses the Rocky
Mountains and how quickly it progresses eastward. Ultimately, there
will likely be another cold front approach Central AL, but the
timing and strength is highly uncertain at this time. For now, I'll
trend rain chances to 20-30% late Sunday night through Monday to
account for the pattern change, but this will be adjusted as models
come into better agreement. Instability ahead of this front look to
remain limited, so I've only included a mention for an isolated
thunderstorm on Monday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Very few aviation concerns for this forecast package. Expect
gusting north winds through this afternoon with VFR conditions.

17/KLAWS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cooler and much drier air mass will remain in place through
Wednesday. Min RHs will drop into the low to mid 20s each
afternoon. 20 ft winds remain generally below 10 kts, though
surface winds could be gusty today. A gradual increase in
moisture Thursday and Friday as low level winds become more
southeasterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     30  61  31  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    33  63  34  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  34  63  39  64  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  36  65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      37  63  38  64  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      38  62  38  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  37  66  38  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        36  64  39  66  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for
the following counties: Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Cleburne...
Etowah...Marion...St. Clair...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
945 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-181845-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
945 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to lower to middle 30s
across the northern and northeastern counties after midnight tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Temperatures will drop into the lower and middle 30s across the
northern and northeastern counties both Wednesday and Thursday
mornings. Some locations may experience freezing temperatures for
several hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
anticipated at this time.