Dense Fog Advisory 21, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
358 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0955 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020/

Multiple lines of convection currently underway as the forecasted
moisture gradient and boundary builds south/southeast. The
unusual orientations stem from the axis of higher pwats, one
across Tennessee and the other in Central Mississippi. It is
likely after the initial line moves in from the west and weakens
that there will be some limited recovery, therefore, a large
portion of the northern CWA will see multiple rounds of
thunderstorms through this afternoon. As the day progresses,
should see these multiple lines congeal into a more southwest to
northeast oriented MCS as it progresses southeastward.

The severe weather threat remains as instability values are high
with steeper lapse rates and drier air aloft. Some hail and
higher wind gusts are the main threats through the afternoon and
early evening.

17/KLAWS

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0330 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020/

Tuesday through Sunday.

An upper trof will remain over the eastern U.S. and maintain a
relatively dry mid level air mass over Alabama Tuesday and
Wednesday. Slightly higher moisture near the south and southwest
periphery of the trof may allow for a few diurnal storms over the
southern counties. Drier air aloft will allow for mixing and
surface dewpoints will drop in the afternoon and keep heat indices
near or just below 100 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. As the
upper ridge over the Southern Plains states expands eastward, it
will push the deeper moisture on the west side of the trof axis
into Alabama. This will produce more diurnal convection for the
period Thursday through Sunday. The increase in heat and humidity
will push heat indices back to near 105 degrees.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue into the evening
hours across the southern counties, with a small chance of showers
across the north. The rain should mostly be gone by midnight
tonight. Drier mid level air will overspread the area on Monday,
and only a slight chance of storms expected south of I-85.
Humidity values will slightly drop on Monday as northerly winds
7-12 mph ushers in a drier air mass. Ridging aloft will suppress
convective activity for all but the southern counties Tuesday and
Wednesday. As the upper ridge breaks down later in the week, rain
chances will increase. Minimum afternoon humidity values will
range from 35 to 45 percent each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  90  68  93  68 /  10  10   0   0   0
Anniston    71  90  69  93  69 /  10  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  72  92  71  93  72 /  10  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  73  93  71  94  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
Calera      72  92  70  93  71 /  20  10   0  10   0
Auburn      71  91  71  93  71 /  30  20   0  10  10
Montgomery  73  93  73  95  74 /  30  20   0  10  10
Troy        73  93  73  94  74 /  40  20  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

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