Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Bismarck, ND

298 
WWUS43 KBIS 010904
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
404 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

NDZ001-002-009-011715-
/O.CON.KBIS.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-
Including the cities of Crosby, Bowbells, Powers Lake, Lignite, 
Columbus, Portal, and Williston
404 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Divide, Burke and Williams counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally higher amounts of 8 to 10 inches 
  are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ025-036-037-045>048-050-051-011715-
/O.NEW.KBIS.WW.Y.0012.200402T0600Z-200403T1200Z/
Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-
Including the cities of Carrington, Steele, Tappen, Jamestown, 
Fort Yates, Selfridge, Solen, Linton, Strasburg, Napoleon, 
Gackle, Lamoure, Edgeley, Kulm, Wishek, Ashley, Oakes, 
and Ellendale
404 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /304 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/
THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday to 7 AM CDT /6 AM 
  MDT/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ003-004-010-011-017-011715-
/O.CON.KBIS.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-
Including the cities of Mohall, Glenburn, Sherwood, Bottineau, 
New Town, Stanley, Parshall, Minot, and Watford City
404 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /304 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Snow accumulations of up to 3 
  inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting 
  as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Bottineau, Mountrail, McKenzie, Ward and Renville 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

MJ

576 
WWUS43 KBIS 011141
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
641 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

NDZ001-002-009-011945-
/O.CON.KBIS.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-
Including the cities of Crosby, Bowbells, Powers Lake, Lignite, 
Columbus, Portal, and Williston
641 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Divide, Burke and Williams counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally higher amounts of 8 to 10 inches 
  are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ003-004-010-011-017-011945-
/O.CON.KBIS.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-
Including the cities of Mohall, Glenburn, Sherwood, Bottineau, 
New Town, Stanley, Parshall, Minot, and Watford City
641 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /541 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Snow accumulations of up to 3 
  inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting 
  as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Bottineau, Mountrail, McKenzie, Ward and Renville 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ025-036-037-045>048-050-051-011945-
/O.CON.KBIS.WW.Y.0012.200402T0600Z-200403T1200Z/
Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-
Including the cities of Carrington, Steele, Tappen, Jamestown, 
Fort Yates, Selfridge, Solen, Linton, Strasburg, Napoleon, 
Gackle, Lamoure, Edgeley, Kulm, Wishek, Ashley, Oakes, 
and Ellendale
641 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /541 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT
/MIDNIGHT MDT/ THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday to 7 AM CDT /6 AM 
  MDT/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

MJ

274 
WWUS43 KBIS 011411
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
911 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

NDZ001-002-009-012215-
/O.CON.KBIS.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-
Including the cities of Crosby, Bowbells, Powers Lake, Lignite, 
Columbus, Portal, and Williston
911 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Divide, Burke and Williams counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ003-004-010-011-017-012215-
/O.CON.KBIS.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-
Including the cities of Mohall, Glenburn, Sherwood, Bottineau, 
New Town, Stanley, Parshall, Minot, and Watford City
911 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /811 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Snow accumulations of up to 3 
  inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting 
  as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Bottineau, Mountrail, McKenzie, Ward and Renville 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ025-036-037-045>048-050-051-012215-
/O.CON.KBIS.WW.Y.0012.200402T0600Z-200403T1200Z/
Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-
Including the cities of Carrington, Steele, Tappen, Jamestown, 
Fort Yates, Selfridge, Solen, Linton, Strasburg, Napoleon, 
Gackle, Lamoure, Edgeley, Kulm, Wishek, Ashley, Oakes, 
and Ellendale
911 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /811 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT
/MIDNIGHT MDT/ THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday to 7 AM CDT /6 AM 
  MDT/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

ZH

527 
WWUS43 KBIS 011743
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

NDZ001-002-009-020000-
/O.CON.KBIS.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-
Including the cities of Crosby, Bowbells, Powers Lake, Lignite, 
Columbus, Portal, and Williston
1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and areas of blowing snow. Additional snow 
  accumulations of up to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 
  mph.

* WHERE...Divide, Burke and Williams counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ003-004-010-011-017-020000-
/O.CON.KBIS.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-
Including the cities of Mohall, Glenburn, Sherwood, Bottineau, 
New Town, Stanley, Parshall, Minot, and Watford City
1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /1143 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and patchy blowing snow. Additional accumulations 
  of up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Bottineau, Mountrail, McKenzie, Ward and Renville 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ025-036-037-045>048-050-051-020145-
/O.CON.KBIS.WW.Y.0012.200402T0600Z-200403T1200Z/
Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-
Including the cities of Carrington, Steele, Tappen, Jamestown, 
Fort Yates, Selfridge, Solen, Linton, Strasburg, Napoleon, 
Gackle, Lamoure, Edgeley, Kulm, Wishek, Ashley, Oakes, 
and Ellendale
1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /1143 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT
/MIDNIGHT MDT/ THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday to 7 AM CDT /6 AM 
  MDT/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

463 
WWUS43 KBIS 011918
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
218 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

NDZ001-002-009-020000-
/O.CAN.KBIS.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KBIS.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-
Including the cities of Crosby, Bowbells, Powers Lake, Lignite, 
Columbus, Portal, and Williston
218 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. 
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Divide, Burke and Williams counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ005-012-013-019>023-034-035-041>044-020330-
/O.EXB.KBIS.WW.Y.0012.200402T1200Z-200403T1200Z/
Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Morton-
Burleigh-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-
Including the cities of Rolla, Dunseith, Rolette, Shell Valley, 
St. John, Velva, Towner, Drake, Rugby, Beulah, Hazen, Center, 
Garrison, Washburn, Underwood, Wilton, Turtle Lake, Mcclusky, 
Goodrich, Harvey, Fessenden, Mandan, Bismarck, Mott, New England,
Elgin, Carson, New Leipzig, Bowman, and Hettinger
218 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /118 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/
THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, south central and southwest 
  North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Thursday to 7 AM CDT /6 AM 
  MDT/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ025-036-037-045>048-050-051-020330-
/O.EXT.KBIS.WW.Y.0012.200402T0300Z-200403T1200Z/
Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-
Including the cities of Carrington, Steele, Tappen, Jamestown, 
Fort Yates, Selfridge, Solen, Linton, Strasburg, Napoleon, 
Gackle, Lamoure, Edgeley, Kulm, Wishek, Ashley, Oakes, 
and Ellendale
218 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /118 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of 
  an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to 7 AM CDT /6 
  AM MDT/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ003-004-010-011-017-020000-
/O.CON.KBIS.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-200402T0000Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-
Including the cities of Mohall, Glenburn, Sherwood, Bottineau, 
New Town, Stanley, Parshall, Minot, and Watford City
218 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /118 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 
  up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...McKenzie, Ward, Mountrail, Bottineau and Renville 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

ZH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

First line of convection is oriented north-south from Rolla to
Jamestown, and should move out of the forecast area in the next
hour or two. A second line of showers has developed along the cold
front, with this extending from Minot southwest to Glen Ullin.
Expanded the chance of precipitation back to the west over the
next few hours in line with this second area of showers.

A very low cloud deck has moves into the far western portion of
the state ahead of the next round of precipitation expected to
begin early this morning. Added in patchy fog through the early
morning, with Williston/Tioga/Stanley already seeing lower
visibilities.

UPDATE Issued at 933 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Convection continues, though drastically decreased in intensity,
along the low-level convergence boundary over central North
Dakota. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the night across the central portions of the state.

Further west, a potent upper level jet is expected to nose over
the western Dakotas tonight, with northwest North Dakota under the
increasingly divergent left exit region. Short-term guidance
continues to show a mesoscale banding potential as 850-700mb
frontogenesis increases early Wednesday morning amid a widespread
area of negative EPV. No changes were made to the going headlines
and snowfall totals but this will need to be monitored as a narrow
band of greater snowfall rates could develop through the morning
hours.

UPDATE Issued at 708 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

This evening, a line of convection was stretching from
Renville/Bottineau through Morton county into Grant county. On
the southern end, a storm with supercell characteristics has
developed around the 00Z hour where there has been a lack of
further southward convective initiation. South-end convection will
continue to tap into an atmosphere of modest instability and
deep layer shear but effective SRH values of 150 to near 200
m2/s2. 00Z KBIS observed sounding shows a capping inversion at
760mb, which indicates the eastward progression of a potentially
severe risk should be limited to the next couple hours. Until
then, steep mid-level lapse rates (measured by KBIS sounding at 8
C/km) and more than enough deep layer sheer will continue the
severe hail threat through southern Morton county in the short-
term. With the effective storm-relative helicity values and the
supercell storm type, this would normally carry a tornado risk as
well. But with the inversion on the KBIS sounding and an
increasingly decoupled boundary layer after sunset, this risk
should be well mitigated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Thunderstorms this afternoon across the central and the potential
for heavy snowfall across the northwest and north central tonight
and tomorrow highlight the short term forecast challenges.

A potent upper level shortwave will approach the western part of
the state tonight. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough and
following cold front will be the focus of shower and thunderstorm
development later this afternoon and this evening. The latest
iterations of the RAP continue to advertise 0-1 km MLCAPE values
of 500 to 1200 J/kg along and ahead of these boundaries through
the evening. CAMs have been consistent in developing a line of
showers and storms from the Canadian Border to the South Dakota
border, just west of the Missouri River in the 20z to 22z time
frame. With deep layer shear values only forecast to range from 20
to 35 knots, severe weather is not anticipated but stronger cores
may produce some small hail and gusty winds. As storms move to
the east, they will begin to diminish with the loss of diurnal
heating but showers may stick around for a few hours.

Behind the front, the approaching shortwave and strong vort max
will pivot and nudge its way into the western part of the state
tonight, bringing with it plenty of upper level forcing and cold
air advection. The NAM and GFS both advertise the potential for
some heavy banded snow somewhere across the northwest and/or the
north central. Strong low to mid level frontogenesis is forecast
to be co-located with strong upper level Q-vector divergence.
Decent lapse rates and strong omega in the dendritic growth zone
also appear to be likely along the path of a 700 mb low that
closes off, potentially adding a convective element to the snow.
The area of heaviest snow will likely be dependent on where this
low ends up tracking. Because of this signal, we elected to issue
a Winter Weather Advisory for much of the northwest and north
central from 06z Wednesday through 00z Thursday. A wide swath of
3 to 6 inch snow accumulation looks reasonable in the Advisory
area with locally higher amounts possible wherever that heavier
band sets up. The timing of the heaviest snow will likely be from
Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours.

The 700 mb low then moves quickly north into western Manitoba
with snow diminishing across the north central by the early
evening hours on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

The focus in the long term is the potential for accumulating
snowfall late Wednesday night through Thursday night. Uncertainty
in exact snowfall amounts remains high in this time period, but
confidence in at least some snow falling over much of southern ND
including the James River valley is high enough to support 50 to
80 percent snow chances centered on the daytime hours Thursday.

Synoptically, a basal shortwave trough embedded within a broader
region of low heights aloft over southwestern Canada and the
northwestern U.S. is forecast to eject from the Rockies and into
the central and northern Plains late this week. A low- and
midlevel baroclinic zone will be in place across the region in
advance of that wave and is apt to serve as a focus for
frontogenesis and potentially-enhanced precipitation rates
somewhere in the region as the stronger forcing for ascent and
related thermal advection preceding the ejecting shortwave trough
occurs late Wednesday night and Thursday. Broader ascent on
isentropic surfaces and related to DCVA will likely produce at
least light snow deeper into the cold sector – further northwest
– Thursday into Thursday night, as well. However, there is
considerable spread in deterministic and ensemble guidance with
the speed and amplitude of the upper-level shortwave and its
related forcing for ascent, with the 12 UTC GFS and GEFS the most
suppressed with their QPF signal, focusing most of the snow
potential in SD and the Red River valley. In contrast, the 12 UTC
ECMWF and its most recently-available ensemble cycle focus
accumulating snowfall across more of central ND.

Notably, a gradual shift northwest in many of the NBM and WPC
super ensemble members – driven by those ECMWF ensemble members
in particular – does favor higher probabilities of 4+ inches of
snow over more of central ND than earlier forecasts. Again,
uncertainty is relatively large, but given the tilt in the
ensembles and knowledge that the GFS and its ensemble members can
tend to be too progressive, there’s certainly an increasing
potential for accumulating snowfall even in south central ND along
with the James River valley. Given current uncertainty and a
blend-driven signal that most areas would likely fall into
advisory-level snow, outside of mesoscale banding near
frontogenesis which could ultimately yield a smaller area of
warning-level snow, confidence in impacts was not quite high
enough to post headlines yet. Finally, note that we are also
carrying a mix of precipitation types including a chance of
freezing rain along the low- and midlevel baroclinic zone, notably
in the James River valley, Wednesday night and Thursday.

Thereafter, a gradual warming trend is expected this weekend and
especially into early next week with NBM-based forecast highs back
into the 50s F by Monday and Tuesday. Broad and mean cyclonic
flow supports low-end precipitation chances during much of that
period, too, with some potential diurnal enhancement as
seasonally-steep lapse rates likely to be present during the
afternoon hours each day beneath lingering cold air aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

Rain showers along a cold front will move through parts of
central North Dakota early in the TAF period, expected to impact
KMOT/KJMS. Meanwhile, IFR/LIFR ceilings are moving into western
North Dakota, ahead of snow expected to begin by 08Z. Heaviest
snow is likely in northwest and north central North Dakota,
possibly impacting KXWA/KMOT, but kept TAF at -SN for now due to
low confidence in spatial extent and timing of heavy snow.
MVFR/IFR stratus expected at all terminals, with northwest winds
sustained at 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening
for NDZ001>004-009>011-017.

&&

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...MJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

NDZ005-012-013-018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-020545-
Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /1145 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Accumulating snow will be possible Wednesday night through Friday
morning. At this time, the heaviest accumulations are most likely
to be across the south central and into the James River Valley.
Light freezing rain may also lead to some light ice accumulations
across the James River Valley. Stay tuned for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ001>004-009>011-017-020545-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-
1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020 /1145 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for late tonight through
Wednesday. See www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for late tonight through
Wednesday. See www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1003 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

NDZ005-012-013-018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-010515-
Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Rolla, Dunseith, Rolette, Shell Valley,
St. John, Velva, Towner, Drake, Rugby, Killdeer, Halliday,
Beulah, Hazen, Center, Garrison, Washburn, Underwood, Wilton,
Turtle Lake, Mcclusky, Goodrich, Harvey, Fessenden, Carrington,
Beach, Medora, Dickinson, Mandan, Bismarck, Steele, Tappen,
Jamestown, Marmarth, Mott, New England, Elgin, Carson,
New Leipzig, Bowman, Hettinger, Fort Yates, Selfridge, Solen,
Linton, Strasburg, Napoleon, Gackle, Lamoure, Edgeley, Kulm,
Wishek, Ashley, Oakes, and Ellendale
1003 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 /903 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

Snow will spread across most of North Dakota Wednesday night
through early Friday morning. Uncertainty remains where the
heavier snow will fall, but at this time it appears much of south
central North Dakota and the James River Valley will have the best
chance of at least 4 inches of snow during this period. Light
freezing rain may also cause light ice accumulations across the
James River Valley on Thursday.

Impacts to travel may occur. Continue to check back for the latest
forecasts.

NH/AE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1023 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             8 SE ALMONT             46.64N 101.39W
03/31/2020  M1.00 INCH       MORTON             ND   PUBLIC

            LATE REPORT FROM 3-31-20. HAIL STONE WAS
            DESCRIBED AS BIG AND SOFT, WITH THE
            CONSISTENCY OF A SNOWBALL.

&&

NJH