Wind Advisory 34, NWS Bismarck, ND

010 
WWUS73 KBIS 121739
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1239 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044-130145-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0034.201012T1800Z-201013T0300Z/
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
Including the cities of Beach, Medora, Dickinson, Marmarth, Mott,
New England, Bowman, and Hettinger
1139 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southwest North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

EDWARDS

488 
WWUS73 KBIS 122323
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
623 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

NDZ034-042-045-130300-
/O.EXA.KBIS.WI.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-201013T0300Z/
Morton-Grant-Sioux-
Including the cities of Mandan, Elgin, Carson, New Leipzig, 
Fort Yates, Selfridge, and Solen
623 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 /523 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. 
  Strongest winds expected in vicinity of rain showers.

* WHERE...Morton, Grant and Sioux Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044-130300-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-201013T0300Z/
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
Including the cities of Beach, Medora, Dickinson, Marmarth, Mott,
New England, Bowman, and Hettinger
523 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.  
  Strongest winds expected in vicinity of rain showers.

* WHERE...Southwest North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MJ

425 
WWUS73 KBIS 122343
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
643 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

NDZ018>020-130300-
/O.EXA.KBIS.WI.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-201013T0300Z/
Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-
Including the cities of Killdeer, Halliday, Beulah, Hazen, 
and Center
643 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 /543 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Gusts up to 55 mph. Strongest winds expected in vicinity
  of rain showers.

* WHERE...Dunn, Mercer and Oliver Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NDZ031>034-040>045-130300-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-201013T0300Z/
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-
Adams-Sioux-
Including the cities of Beach, Medora, Dickinson, Mandan, 
Marmarth, Mott, New England, Elgin, Carson, New Leipzig, Bowman, 
Hettinger, Fort Yates, Selfridge, and Solen
643 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 /543 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Gusts up to 55 mph. Strongest winds expected in vicinity
  of rain showers.

* WHERE...Morton, Grant and Sioux Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MJ

493 
WWUS73 KBIS 130252
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
952 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

NDZ018>020-031>034-040>045-130400-
/O.EXP.KBIS.WI.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-201013T0300Z/
Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Including the cities of Killdeer, Halliday, Beulah, Hazen, 
Center, Beach, Medora, Dickinson, Mandan, Marmarth, Mott, 
New England, Elgin, Carson, New Leipzig, Bowman, Hettinger, 
Fort Yates, Selfridge, and Solen
952 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 /852 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

Winds have dropped below criteria and will decrease further
through the night, so the wind advisory will be allowed to 
expire.

$$

MJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
651 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Only minor changes were made to the forecast for this update. The
arrival of rain chances in western North Dakota were delayed by
just a little based on the latest high resolution guidance, which
appears to be handling upstream precipitation well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Early morning upper air analysis shows a closed low over central
Saskatchewan with a sharp trough axis extending down through the
eastern Dakotas. Meanwhile, a fast moving shortwave is approaching
the Northern Rockies along the Canadian border. This wave, in tandem
with a 110 kt upper level jet streak, will move across Montana and
into the Northern Plains through the day. This system appears a bit
stronger than what was advertised 24 hours ago. Therefore,
confidence has increased that there will be enough forcing to
support a chance of light rain across the area later this morning
into tonight. The precipitation footprint is expected to more or
less take on the look of a traditional developing cyclone, with a NW-
SE oriented band of light rain forced by upper level jet dynamics,
followed by a chance of more convective type showers along and
trailing the low level cold air advection. There will be a dry air
mass for this system to overcome, so there is some uncertainty on
the spatial extend of precipitation at any given time, and overall
amounts should remain very light.

Modest pressure rises and cold air advection are forecast on the
back side of the wave, with boundary layer winds approaching 40 kts.
This signal is forecast to move from west to east across the state
this evening into tonight, so the time of day is not favorable for
these gusts to mix down. However, wind gusts of this magnitude would
be possible in any shower that develops in the cold sector.

Temperatures during the short term period will be near average, with
highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s, and lows tonight in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

The main concern for the extended period is the potential for strong
winds on Wednesday, along with a good chance of rain.

The Northern Plains will remain under northwest flow aloft on
Tuesday, placed in between two shortwaves with transient ridging at
the surface. The upstream shortwave will pass over the Northern
Rockies Tuesday night and continue to deepen over the Northern
Plains on Wednesday. This system appears very similar to, but
stronger than the one today, with surface cyclogenesis forecast over
North Dakota early Wednesday. Chances for precipitation will begin
to increase Tuesday night in the presence of left exit region jet
dynamics, Q-vector convergence, isentropic ascent, and mid level
frontogenesis. A generally west-east oriented band of precipitation
will likely continue into Wednesday as the surface cyclone moves
across the state, with deformation processes taking over on the back
side of the low.

There is a much stronger signal for impactful winds along and
trailing the cold front, with deterministic guidance suggesting 3-hr
changes on the order of 10 mb of MSLP and 5-10 degrees Celsius of
mean low layer temperatures. Unlike today, this strong wind signal
is favored to occur during peak heating, and may also be accompanied
by light precipitation. This could result in sustained surface winds
over 30 mph and gusts exceeding 50 mph. The strongest winds are
currently favored over southwest North Dakota.

There is still some uncertainty on the tracking and timing of this
system. Overall consensus favors the highest QPF from northwest to
east central North Dakota. The deterministic ECMWF and NAM follow
this track or are slightly to the north, with strong support from
ECMWF ensemble members in this outcome. The GFS/GEFS exhibit more of
a mixed signal and are generally shifted slightly to the south of
the aforementioned guidance. Also, the ECMWF systems appear to be a
bit faster than their GFS counterparts. Thermal profiles support a
potential for snow mixing with rain if precipitation falls near the
Canadian border late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, all precipitation is expected to fall as rain.

A colder air mass will follow the Wednesday system into the region,
with flow aloft remaining northwest through the end of the week as a
longwave trough deepens over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
A few weak disturbances embedded in the cyclonic flow could spark a
few rain showers on Thursday.

There is still considerable uncertainty on the synoptic pattern
heading into the weekend. WPC ensemble cluster analysis suggests
that the two most likely outcomes are for a cold and wetter pattern
(heavily favored by the ECMWF ensemble) or a not as cold and dry
pattern (heavily favored by the GEFS). The NBM gives western and
central North Dakota 20 to 30 percent PoPs this weekend, which seems
reasonable. If precipitation does occur, both rain and snow appear
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

VFR through the TAF valid period. A trough of low pressure will move
across the forecast area and with it will be an increase in mid and
high level clouds. With those clouds will come isolated rain showers
during the afternoon today and into tonight. Expect the winds to be
from the west increasing to 15 to 25 knots.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...Hollan
LONG TERM...Hollan
AVIATION...JPM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
629 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-131130-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
629 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020 /529 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Wednesday will be windy east to very windy west. Wind gusts in
the west could reach 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

JP Martin