Wind Advisory 31, NWS Bismarck, ND

896 
WWUS73 KBIS 061444
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
944 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-051-062245-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0031.201006T1700Z-201007T0100Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-Dickey-
Including the cities of Crosby, Bowbells, Powers Lake, Lignite, 
Columbus, Portal, Mohall, Glenburn, Sherwood, Bottineau, Rolla, 
Dunseith, Rolette, Shell Valley, St. John, Williston, New Town, 
Stanley, Parshall, Minot, Velva, Towner, Drake, Rugby, Garrison, 
Washburn, Underwood, Wilton, Turtle Lake, Mcclusky, Goodrich, 
Harvey, Fessenden, Carrington, Bismarck, Steele, Tappen, 
Jamestown, Napoleon, Gackle, Lamoure, Edgeley, Kulm, Oakes, 
and Ellendale
944 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds sustained near 30 mph with gusts to 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Much of central and northwest North Dakota including 
  the James River Valley.

* WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Working on elevated structures will be hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Hollan

510 
WWUS73 KBIS 061958
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
258 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-051-062100-
/O.CAN.KBIS.WI.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-201007T0100Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-Dickey-
Including the cities of Crosby, Bowbells, Powers Lake, Lignite, 
Columbus, Portal, Mohall, Glenburn, Sherwood, Bottineau, Rolla, 
Dunseith, Rolette, Shell Valley, St. John, Williston, New Town, 
Stanley, Parshall, Minot, Velva, Towner, Drake, Rugby, Garrison, 
Washburn, Underwood, Wilton, Turtle Lake, Mcclusky, Goodrich, 
Harvey, Fessenden, Carrington, Bismarck, Steele, Tappen, 
Jamestown, Napoleon, Gackle, Lamoure, Edgeley, Kulm, Oakes, 
and Ellendale
258 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Cloud cover has prevented winds from becoming as high as
previously expected. While gusty northwest winds will continue
through the afternoon, the Wind Advisory has been cancelled.

$$

Hollan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

For late night update only change needed was to adjust for broken
cloud cover which has spread a little further south than
previously thought. Otherwise, going forecast looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020

No significant changes for the late evening update. Adjusted sky
cover a little based on latest satellite trends. Otherwise we did
update sky and winds Tuesday based on latest model trends. Raised
winds a little over the northwest and north central. Latest model
guidance is near Wind Advisory criteria. Pretty good gradient
winds, nice mix out afternoon with steep lapse rates and some
subsidence in the lowest levels, but no strong pressure bubble and
it looks like more clouds than sun north central into the
northern JRV Tuesday afternoon which could inhibit mixing. Will
let the overnight shift take a look at the latest guidance for the
final decision. Either way it will be windy Tuesday late morning
through the afternoon northwest and north central. It's possible
we may need a wind advisory pretty much over the same area as the
Red Flag Warning, and for pretty much the same timeframe.

UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020

No significant updates for the early evening update. Clear skies
across western and central ND with mid and high clouds tracking
southeast through southern Saskatchewan, moving into the north
later this evening. Breezy northwest winds will diminish after 7-8
PM this evening, but will remain around 5-15 mph as they shift to
the southwest ahead of another weak cold front that moves through
the area Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020

Overall breezy and generally dry conditions are expected through
the short term, with elevated to critical fire danger. Breezy
northwest winds continue this evening behind passage of a weak
front this morning. Some wind speeds have approached advisory
criteria, although they are not widespread enough to warrant one.
Still sustained winds near 30 MPH and gusts near 40 MPH are
possible through this evening. Meanwhile dry conditions could
combine with these winds to bring near critical fire danger.
Tonight, winds will diminish and low temperatures will remain mild
with some passing clouds.

Tuesday will see a couple weak fronts move across the area. This
will reinforce the winds, and bring warming and dry conditions.
The result is perhaps a critical fire weather day, especially
across northern and central portions. As a result have issued a
Fire Weather Watch for these area. See the fire weather discussion
for more details. The later afternoon front could bring some
clouds to the area and perhaps a sneaky shower. The confidence on
this is low and is not currently in the forecast. Temperatures on
Tuesday will be in the 70s for most areas, while winds gusts near
40 MPH remain possible. The highest winds look to come for
northern, central, and eastern ND. Here near advisory winds are
possible, although confidence was to low for a highlight at this
point.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020

Overall after some mild and breezy days to end the work week, a
potentially active pattern may return to end the upcoming weekend.
Through the work week we see weak to flat ridging across the area.
Wednesday looks to be cooler from the mentioned fronts on Tuesday
with highs in the 60s. The remainder of the week warms back into
the 70s. Some breezy winds may be found in zonal flow through the
rest of the week, especially Thursday. With warming temps, breezy
winds, and dry conditions elevated fire danger may also continue
through the work week. Saturday continues to be dry and mild under
weak ridging. Sunday into Monday then sees the next potentially
active period. A large trough looks to move into the area and
bring our next widespread chances for precipitation. Early
indications are this should be a warm system, that is not quite
cool enough for snow. There are also early indications that this
warmer system combined with amble shear and instability may bring
about some late season thunderstorms. Still plenty of time to
sort out the details, but overall limited below freezing
temperatures, mild afternoon highs, and some active weather are
possible during the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

Gusty west to northwest winds are expected on Tuesday. VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

Breezy winds and lowering RH could bring near critical fire
conditions through this evening. Tuesday sees lower RH with
continued breezy winds from passing frontal boundaries. The
strongest winds look to come along, north, and east of the
Missouri River. These areas are now in a Fire Weather Watch for
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Southwest ND will see RH values in
the 20s, however, at this point look to miss out on the winds.
Have left them out of the watch despite the elevated fire danger.
There is some concern a weak front in the afternoon could bring
about some cloud cover on Tuesday, perhaps limiting somewhat the
fire danger. Although winds and low RH are forecasted to be
critical enough to warrant a Fire Weather Watch, with subsequent
shifts evaluating the need to upgrade.

The remainder of the week sees continued mild conditions with
breezy winds at times. This could continue at least elevated fire
danger worth monitoring for potential critical conditions.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037.

&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...Anglin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
311 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-051-070815-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-Dickey-
311 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning and a Wind Advisory have been issued for this
afternoon and early evening. See www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ017>020-034-042-045-046-050-070815-
McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Morton-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-McIntosh-
311 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 /211 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and
southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for this afternoon and early
evening. See www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044-070815-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
211 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gusty west to northwest winds and low relative humidity values will
result in near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon
and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.