Severe Thunderstorm Warning 284, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
923 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Thunderstorms were increasing and building back toward the west
along ND Highway 36 running from northwest of Jamestown to north
of Bismarck, an east to west oriented line. Another line of
storms extended also east to west from northern Foster County to
near Fessenden in Wells County. These storms are north of the
surface boundary that pushed through late this afternoon.

These storms were in an area of 2-3,000 J/Kg MUCAPE, 700-500MB
lapse rates of about 7.5 C and deep layer moisture flux
convergence oriented east to west in the area where the storms
formed.

Earlier CAMS, specifically the HRRR did show this line
developing so it is now followed as the CAM of choice. This would
bring weak convection just to the west of Bismarck and Mandan so a
low pop was introduced for the next several hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Updated pops and expanded severe risk over the southeast part of
the forecast area.

Two outflow boundaries were pushing south from the convection near
Jamestown. Between the tow, near the North and South Dakota border
in Dickey County a thunderstorm formed and underwent explosive
growth. A new Storm was now forming on the north side of the
original Storm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Thunderstorms forming and propagating along and behind a cold
frontal boundary in moving through central and southwest North
Dakota. Frontogenetic forcing continues to extend across into the
cold air side of the baroclinic zone late this afternoon.

We expect storms to primarily be elevated along and north of the
cold front. Strong warm advection across the frontal boundary
this evening will feed the convection, and if it aligns into an
east west convective line there will be some training
possibilities, which suggests a potential for heavy rain this
evening in the central James river Valley. We have messaged this
in the Weather Story and Hazardous Weather outlook for tonight.

Tonights lows will be in the lower 50s north and the lower 60s
south.

On Monday dry weather is expected. We used the smoke information
from the HRRR model which keeps considerable elevated smoke
across the region tonight and Monday. Highs will be in the 80s to
lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

The initial H500 pattern with a ridge across the western US will
gradually flatten as shortwave energy moves through the northern
plains this coming week.

This will tend to bing an active pattern with chances for
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday, and again Saturday and
Sunday.

There is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday
and Tuesday night with better CAPE and Shear with a cold frontal
passage.

Temperatures will be above normal through Tuesday, then normal or
slightly below normal Thursday and Friday. Although warmer
temperatures may be seen next weekend, some extended analogues
are starting to hint at much cooler weather in the 6 to 10 day
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 915 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

KDIK-KXWA-KMOT will be VFR. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
are forecast from just north of KBIS through KJMS until about
24/08Z. Then MVFR ceilings possible at KJMS between 08Z and 15Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...JPM
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JPM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
934 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>021-031>034-040>045-250245-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
934 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 /834 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance of thunderstorms during the middle part of the
week and if storms form, they could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ022-023-035-046-250245-
Sheridan-Wells-Burleigh-Emmons-
934 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

An isolated thunderstorm in possible this Sunday night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance of thunderstorms during the middle part of the
week and if storms form, they could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ025-036-037-047-048-050-051-250245-
Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
934 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms this Sunday night and a few could be
severe with the main threat being large hail, between half dollar
and golf ball size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance of thunderstorms during the middle part of the
week and if storms form, they could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

JP Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
827 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

NDZ037-048-240200-
La Moure ND-Stutsman ND-
827 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAMOURE AND
SOUTHEASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 826 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Montpelier, or
19 miles southeast of Jamestown, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations near the path of this storm include...
Adrian and Montpelier.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4654 9856 4665 9867 4679 9844 4663 9844
      4663 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 242DEG 10KT 4666 9853

SCHILD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
834 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             4 NNE GUELPH            46.08N 98.22W
08/23/2020  E1.00 INCH       DICKEY             ND   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
841 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

NDZ037-240200-
Stutsman ND-
841 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL STUTSMAN COUNTY
UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 841 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Spiritwood, or
10 miles northeast of Jamestown, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Spiritwood Lake and Spiritwood.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4694 9864 4707 9866 4709 9847 4698 9847
      4698 9844 4690 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 271DEG 35KT 4700 9853

SCHILD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1050 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     HAIL             CLEVELAND               46.89N 99.12W
08/23/2020  M1.00 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED THROUGH BROADCAST
            MEDIA.

&&

JP MARTIN

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