Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
613 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

Update just to mention once all products and services are updated
we will begin the job of evaluating if counties can be removed
from the western edge of the watch number 379, behind the line of
convection that continues to develop along the frontal boundary.

UPDATE Issued at 527 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

Update to notify that a new watch will be issued very soon to
include the rest of southeast ND until 1 AM CDT. I'll get it out
ASAP.

jp

UPDATE Issued at 500 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

As of this writing hi resolution satellite imagery was starting
to show convective cloud development on a line from the storms
just southeast of Minot to the southwest, to near Hettinger and
into northwest South Dakota. Based on atmospheric profile and
severe weather parameters we expect to see explosive storms
development along that line over the next hour or so. Right along
that line of developing cumulus / towering cumulus and to the
east is the severe thunderstorm watch area.That line also starting
to show up on area radars as a fine line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

Radar signatures starting to show bowing segments this afternoon
across the north central. Cam models favor developing storms
to the southwest along a wind shift/moisture line across west
central North Dakota, and moving the whole line eastward into the
evening hours.

Out ahead and southeast of this line, strong southerly winds from
Jamestown north will feed moist low level air into the
thunderstorms.

We believe the stronger storms will have up to 75 to 80 mph gusts
and 2 inch hail along this line through early evening.

Then later tonight, as the thunderstorms exit the region, a
secondary shortwave trough will bring another chance for
thunderstorms to western North Dakota late tonight through the
afternoon hours Saturday. These could be marginally severe as
well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

The extended forecast will begin with broad cyclonic flow aloft
as an upper low over Hudson Bay, Canada migrates northeast,
leaving weak height rises over the northern US plains. While not
particularly favorable for severe weather with height rises aloft,
there should be a chance for thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

Otherwise after a midweek h500 ride axis moves east on Wednesday,
there should be another round of thunderstorms Thursday into
Friday as an h500 trough over the northwest us will send shortwave
energy into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

Severe thunderstorm high threat continues from just east of KMOT
through KHEI and all points east of there through 01Z. After 01Z
the threat will be from the Rugby area through KBIS and east
until about 06Z. Another mid level wave will come in behind this
convection with storms moving out of Montana and into western
North Dakota after 06Z. Those storms, after 06Z, are not expected
to be severe, but thunderstorms nonetheless.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JPM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051-182000-
Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 /157 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and early evening
in central and parts of western North Dakota. The main threats
will be large hail up to two inches in diameter and damaging winds
up to 75 mph with potential supercell thunderstorms. A tornado or
two is also possible.

A chance of thunderstorms will also return to central North Dakota
late tonight, with a strong storm possible.

A heat advisory is in effect until 7 PM CDT. See weather.gov/bis
for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and early evening.

NDZ003>005-010>013-018>023-025-033-041-044-182000-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Stark-Hettinger-Adams-
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 /157 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and early evening
in central and parts of western North Dakota. The main threats
will be large hail up to two inches in diameter and damaging winds
up to 70 mph with potential supercell thunderstorms. A tornado or
two is also possible.

A chance of thunderstorms will also return to central North Dakota
late tonight, with a strong storm possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and early evening.

NDZ001-002-009-017-031-032-040-043-182000-
Divide-Burke-Williams-McKenzie-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-
Bowman-
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 /157 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A chance of thunderstorms will return to western North Dakota
late tonight, with a strong storm possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

waa

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             RUSO                    47.83N 100.93W
07/17/2020  M1.75 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL HAIL LASTED FIVE MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
541 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             4 SW SIMCOE             48.12N 100.94W
07/17/2020  E2.00 INCH       MCHENRY            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
545 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             SIMCOE                  48.16N 100.87W
07/17/2020  M1.75 INCH       MCHENRY            ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
624 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

NDZ035-172345-
Burleigh ND-
624 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BURLEIGH COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 624 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of Lake
Harmon, or 9 miles north of Mandan, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Baldwin and Double Ditch Indian Village.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4690 10091 4695 10091 4697 10094 4698 10094
      4701 10088 4704 10088 4706 10090 4715 10068
      4689 10055 4686 10087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 250DEG 19KT 4697 10086

ABELING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
626 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             ANAMOOSE                47.88N 100.24W
07/17/2020  E1.50 INCH       MCHENRY            ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED THROUGH BROADCAST MEDIA. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

MJ