Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
242 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Severe storms this evening and tonight highlight the short term
forecast period.

Strong to severe storms will develop along and ahead of a cold
front late this afternoon/early evening across the far south
central and James River Valley. The environment will be
characterized by effective shear in the 35 to 45 knot range and
moderate to strong instability. Thus, we expect a mixed mode of
multicell clusters and/or transient supercell structures
initially. The strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts up
to 70 mph and hail up to golf ball size. While the threat is non-
zero because of various potential boundary interactions, the
tornado threat does not appear to be very high, with weak low
level shear forecast. Very heavy rain will accompany these storms
and we may see some training across the far southern James River
Valley, where a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Dickey and
McIntosh counties.

Other portions of western and central North Dakota have a chance
for a strong to severe storm, but these will be very few and far
between, with hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up
to 60 mph.

Storms may continue overnight before finally drifting south and
east, but new storms may enter the southwest from ongoing
convection over eastern Montana.

Another round storms may fire west late Monday afternoon ahead of
another strong shortwave. The southwest will likely see the
strongest storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

The strong shortwave makes it into the west late Monday night.
Plenty of elevated instability and strong shear will overlap
favorably for at least some severe risk overnight across the west
and/or south. However, it remains to be seen how widespread
storms will be with only subtle height falls forecast.

An even stronger wave approaches on Tuesday, which could end up
producing the most significant severe weather of the period given
very strong instability favorably overlapping deep layer shear in
the 50 to 60 knot range across the west. We probably still have a
day or so until we start getting a clearer picture regarding
specific threats and location, but confidence is increasing that
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning will be active.

Behind Tuesday's wave, it is looking like a dry spell from
Wednesday afternoon until later Friday. The far north could see a
few showers on Thursday, however. Some global models are then
depicting a ridge rider MCS coming down from Canada overnight
Friday with mainly dry high pressure moving in Saturday afternoon
and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will form
this afternoon and evening across the south central and Southern
James River Valley. A few of these storms may become severe with
hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging winds up to 70 mph.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible elsewhere.
Underneath any heavier storms, brief IFR/MVFR conditions will be
possible, but VFR conditions are generally expected through the
period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NDZ050-051.

&&

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...ZH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
200 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-043-061900-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-
Bowman-
200 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 /100 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible across far western North Dakota
today. The main hazards will be small hail, gusty winds and
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Severe storms are possible later Monday into Monday night, and
again later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of what is happening in your area are very important.
Report directly to the National Weather Service.

NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-034-035-041-042-044-061900-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Morton-Burleigh-Hettinger-
Grant-Adams-
200 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 /100 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across central North
Dakota this afternoon into tonight. The main hazards will be large
hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Very heavy rain is also possible with the storms and that may lead
to flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Remember,
lightning can kill.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Severe storms are possible later Monday into Monday night, and
again later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of what is happening in your area are very important.
Report directly to the National Weather Service.

NDZ025-036-037-045>048-061900-
Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
200 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 /100 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the Fort Yates
and Linton areas through Steele and the James River Valley this
afternoon into tonight. The main hazards will be large hail up to
golf ball size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Very heavy
rain is also possible with the storms and that may lead to
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Remember, lightning
can kill.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Severe storms are possible later Monday into Monday night, and
again later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of what is happening in your area are very important.
Report directly to the National Weather Service.

NDZ050-051-061900-
McIntosh-Dickey-
200 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the Fort Yates
and Linton areas through Steele and the James River Valley this
afternoon into tonight. The main hazards will be large hail up to
golf ball size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Very heavy
rain is also possible with the storms and that may lead to
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Remember, lightning
can kill.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued from late this afternoon
through late tonight. See www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Severe storms are possible later Monday into Monday night, and
again later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of what is happening in your area are very important.
Report directly to the National Weather Service.

ZH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND GST     MARMARTH                46.30N 103.92W
07/04/2020  E60 MPH          SLOPE              ND   PUBLIC

            LATE REPORT FOR LAST NIGHTS STORMS. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. WINDS WERE AT LEAST 60
            MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
102 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW BOWMAN            46.18N 103.41W
07/04/2020  E60 MPH          BOWMAN             ND   PUBLIC

            LATE REPORT FROM LAST NIGHT. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
225 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 W RHAME               46.24N 103.75W
07/04/2020  E60 MPH          BOWMAN             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LATE REPORT FROM STORMS LAST NIGHT. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

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