Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
539 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 535 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Forecast updated for new WW324 severe thunderstorm for most of
central and into southwest North Dakota. Storms have broken loose
on the west edge of the CAP near the surface boundary and were
clustering toward the northeast. Will expect storms to continue to
fire toward the east with the western North Dakota surface
boundary as it inches east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

The main concern for the short term period is chances for severe
thunderstorms.

Closed upper low continues to spin over central Alberta with a
positively tilted ridge axis from the Great Lakes to Texas. A pre-
frontal surface trough is analyzed from near Mohall to Buffalo, SD,
and is a bit farther west than previously expected. Convection
initiation appears to be underway along/just ahead of the surface
trough in southwest North Dakota where SBCIN is eroding. SPC
mesoanalysis places up to 5000 J/kg SBCAPE and around 40 kts
effective bulk shear over the area. Initial storms should remain
discrete. Upscale growth into clusters/linear segments is possible,
but not a certainty due to weaker mid/upper level forcing, and right-
moving Bunkers vectors would likely move discrete supercells away
from the surface boundary. The main hazard is expected to be very
large hail, with damaging winds also possible. The tornado threat is
marginal at best, mainly due to relatively high LCLs, but still
greater than zero. It is unclear how far north and east the threat
for severe weather may expand, mainly due to capping concerns.

Further to the east, sub-severe convection has been percolating over
central North Dakota along a corridor of strong low level southerly
flow. Much greater CIN and weaker shear will likely keep this
activity below severe limits.

There is potential for the development of additional convection
overnight from southwest into central North Dakota on the nose of a
low level jet and associated low to mid level moisture transport.
Forcing may be aided by mid level shortwave energy. This potential
is likely highly contingent on the latitudinal placement of the
LLJ/moisture transport, which may be influenced by remnant outflow
boundaries from convection this afternoon and evening. MLCIN will
obviously be present at this time of day. But interestingly, the RAP
does show a weakening trend in the cap after midnight CDT. If air
parcels are able to break through the EML, MUCAPE and effective bulk
shear would promote a severe threat, which may continue into Friday
morning.

Details on timing and location of convection Friday and Friday night
remain murky at best. There is general agreement for active
southwest flow aloft topping a Central Plains ridge, with strong
moisture advection in low level southerly flow. The trend in CAMs
has been for mostly dry weather during the afternoon, while some
global models suggest meandering MCSs through the day. The potential
for early morning convection further complicates the picture and
decreases predictability. However, the environment over this time
period will generally contain steep lapse rates, CAPE greater than
2000 J/kg, effective shear greater than 30 kts, and precipitable
water greater than one inch. Any storm/complex of storms will be
capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and torrential
rainfall. Of particular concern is the potential for training
convection as Corfidi vectors are oriented perpendicular to moisture
transport vectors, with mean 700-300 mb winds less than 30 kts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Above normal temperatures and chances for thunderstorms, some severe
with heavy rain, highlight the long term period.

Long range guidance continues to favor a stagnant weather pattern
through the middle of next week, with persistent Pacific Northwest
troughing and broad ridging from the Southern Plains to the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. This leaves the local area in an active
southwest to quasi-zonal flow pattern, with mostly above normal
temperatures, humid conditions, and daily chances for thunderstorms.
The hottest day is expected to be Independence Day, with afternoon
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s from south central North Dakota
into the James River Valley.

Forecast instability and shear parameters along with climatology
suggest any round of thunderstorms has the potential to include
severe weather. This thinking is supported by CIPS analogs, which
bring relatively higher probabilities (at least 15 percent) of
severe weather into at least part of North Dakota every single day.
Of greater concern may be the potential for heavy rain. Periods of
strong low level moisture transport are forecast to intercept east-
northeastward propagating MCSs in an environment with above normal
precipitable water and deep warm-cloud layers. This potential threat
looks to be maximized Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast through the forecast period,
mainly across southwest and central ND. Beyond this evening,
predictability of timing and location of storms is too low to
include a mention in the TAFs. Expect periods of IFR to LIFR
visibility, sporadic gusty winds, and hail within thunderstorms.
Outside of storms, VFR conditions should prevail. Southerly winds
of 15 to 30 kts will continue across central ND this evening,
with lighter westerly winds to the west, behind the surface boundary.
Winds will become light and variable overnight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...Hollan
LONG TERM...Hollan
AVIATION...JPM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
616 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

NDZ023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-032330-
Wells-Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
616 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Numerous thunderstorms are forecast across western and central
North Dakota Friday through Sunday. Heavy rain is possible with
any storm, especially across central parts of the state. Severe
weather is also possible.

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue Monday through
Wednesday. Some storms may be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather, including heavy
rain, to the National Weather Service in Bismarck.

NDZ001-002-009-017-031-032-032330-
Divide-Burke-Williams-McKenzie-Golden Valley-Billings-
616 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 /516 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Numerous thunderstorms are forecast across western and central
North Dakota Friday through Sunday. Heavy rain is possible with
any storm, especially across central parts of the state. Severe
weather is also possible.

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue Monday through
Wednesday. Some storms may be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather, including heavy
rainfall, to the National Weather Service in Bismarck.

NDZ003>005-010>013-018>022-033>035-040>046-032330-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
616 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 /516 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms with hail as large as golf balls and winds as
high as 70 mph, along with heavy rain that may lead to minor
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas, possible until 10
PM CDT. After that there is a chance of thunderstorms the rest of
the night but they are not forecast to be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Numerous thunderstorms are forecast across western and central
North Dakota Friday through Sunday. Heavy rain is possible with
any storm, especially across central parts of the state. Severe
weather is also possible.

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue Monday through
Wednesday. Some storms may be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather, including heavy
rainfall, to the National Weather Service in Bismarck.

JP Martin

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
543 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             8 NW MARSHALL           47.23N 102.44W
07/02/2020  M1.00 INCH       DUNN               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
601 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             NEW ENGLAND             46.54N 102.87W
07/02/2020  E1.75 INCH       HETTINGER          ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MOSTLY A LOT OF PEA SIZE HAIL, GROUND
            COMPLETELY COVERED AS IT HAILED FOR QUITE
            SOME TIME, BUT THERE WERE SOME STONES AS BIG
            AS GOLF BALLS. HAIL HAD JUST STOPPED AT TIME
            OF CALL.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
603 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             1 E NEW ENGLAND         46.54N 102.85W
07/02/2020  E1.75 INCH       HETTINGER          ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERMITTENT HAIL CONTINUED UNTIL AROUND 601
            PM. LARGEST STONES WERE GOLF BALL SIZED.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
615 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             5 S TWIN BUTTES         47.45N 102.26W
07/02/2020  E1.00 INCH       DUNN               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ARB OBSERVER. HAIL VARIED IN SIZE FROM PEA
            TO QUARTER.

&&

MJ