Wind Advisory 6, NWS Binghamton, NY

599 
WWUS71 KBGM 091838
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
238 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

NYZ009-036-037-045-046-057-062-091945-
/O.CAN.KBGM.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200410T0400Z/
Northern Oneida-Madison-Southern Oneida-Chenango-Otsego-Delaware-
Sullivan-
Including the cities of Boonville, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica,
Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi, Walton, and Monticello
238 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will remain blustery through tonight with gusts over 30 mph
at times. This is not quite windy enough to meet the advisory
thresholds, and therefore the Wind Advisory has been cancelled.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
207 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure with widespread showers tracks east through our
area today. Gusty northwest winds will develop this afternoon
and continue through Friday. Lake effect snow showers will
affect central New York tonight into Saturday morning. High
pressure builds into the region this weekend, before the next
storm tracks into the Great Lakes Sunday night or Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 am update...
Lowered hourly and minimum temperatures early this morning.
Valley temperatures have fallen into the mid 30s with clear
skies and light winds across the twin tiers into the western
Catskills. As low level winds increase and clouds move in
temperatures will rise into the 40s.

940 pm update...With use latest meso model guidance, updated PoP
to improve the timing for the arrival of rain showers early
Thursday morning. Also, with strong LLJ pushing into NE PA and
the Southern Tier tomorrow morning through early afternoon,
added mention of gusty winds associated with thunderstorms.
Gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in any isolated
thunderstorms.

630 pm update...Not too many changes needed to the current
forecast. Just decreased cloud cover over the next few hours
across the southern half of the CWA as strato-cu has really
diminished just before sunset. Other than that, forecast remains
on-track and no other changes are needed at this time.

Previous Discussion...
A stationary front was positioned to our south across the Ohio
Valley and Mid Atlantic this afternoon. Looking upstream, there
were two weak low pressure systems. The northern low was
centered just north of Lake Superior (minimum MSLP around 1001
mb) while the southern system was even weaker (1004 mb) over
northeastern Missouri. These two systems are expected to phase,
resulting in a rapidly deepening low while tracking eastward
across the forecast area Thursday morning and New England
Thursday afternoon.

An overrunning setup will develop overhead overnight as a
strengthening southwesterly low-level jet ahead of the
aforementioned low intersects the stationary west-east boundary
positioned to our south. The initial area of showers should
arrive in our far western zones of CNY during the predawn hours
and then overspread the rest of the area around or just after
sunrise. Considering (1) the favorable dynamics with this system
to support an organized area of precip and (2) the latest
CAMs/operational models continue to be in good agreement, there
was enough confidence/evidence to go with categorical PoPs for
the morning (lingering into the early afternoon across the
Catskills). Forecast soundings show a very limited amount of
elevated instability (MUCAPE between 150-300 J/kg) across the
Southern Tier of NY and NEPA. Despite weak instability, the
strong dynamics could support low-topped convection in this
high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environment. Greatest convective
potential appears to be just ahead of the cold front between
about 10 AM and 1 PM along and especially south of the NY-PA
border. Although the severe threat appears to be low owing to
convection remaining elevated, storms could produce locally
gusty winds with 40-45 kt winds just off the deck.

The steadier showers should quickly end from west to east behind
the cold front during the early afternoon. Post-frontal W-NW
winds will strengthen through the afternoon as the low steadily
deepens below 980 mb along the New England coast and CAA aids
deeper mixing. Based on BUFKIT momentum transfer from the 12Z
NAM/GFS forecast soundings, frequent gusts between 35-45 mph are
expected across the region. If deep mixing is realized, a few
higher gusts to 50 mph are not out of the question, especially
across the higher elevations of CNY.

A parade of shortwave troughs will rotate cyclonically around the
backside of the closed low. Models continue to hone in on at least
two of these disturbances passing through the region Thursday night.
The first one will likely move through during the evening and be
accompanied by scattered light rain/snow showers (highest PoPs
across the Twin Tiers with enhancement off of Lake Erie). The next
disturbance tracks farther north with Lake Ontario helping to
enhance snow showers across CNY late Thursday night. Snowfall
accumulations will likely be highly dependent on elevation (favoring
the southern Tug Hill and hills south of the Mohawk Valley) and
snowfall rates (snow will struggle to accumulate outside of heavier
bursts).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM update...

Northwest flow on the backside of the departing low will wrap
low-level moisture into the region Friday through early
Saturday. Snow showers will be ongoing across the higher
elevations of Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida with total
accumulations of 2-4 inches. Steep lapse rates and a shortwave
trough moving through from northwest to southeast will create a
period of more convective snow showers where a quick inch could
fall in the heaviest cells during the day on Friday. Winds will
be steady with gusts 40-45 mph Friday afternoon as solar
heating will help mix down some of the higher winds aloft.
Cannot rule out a few wind gusts peaking near Wind Advisory
criteria.

The atmosphere dries out Friday night into Saturday with the
low-level clouds clearing by Saturday afternoon as high
pressure builds in. Temperatures warm into the upper 30s with
less windy conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM update...

The unsettled weather patter continues into the long term with
another low pressure system deepening and propagating into the
Great Lakes region early in the week. High pressure over the
region Sunday will move east. WAA and precipitation develops
ahead of the next system Sunday night and Monday. Most guidance
has the low zipping off to the northeast with the CWA getting
into the dry slot of the storm. CAA takes over once again with
temperatures falling back below average along with some chances
of precipitation Tuesday into late Wednesday.

Previous Discussion from 330 AM...

Unsettled weather this period again but temperatures closely to
mid April averages. Saturday night will be partly cloudy with
lows around 30 finally under a high pressure ridge. The ridge
moves slowly east pumping warmer air into the area so high
temperatures will be in the 50s Sunday and Monday. A large storm
in the southern Plains will move northeast through our area
Monday. Rain will be over NY/PA Sunday night into Monday. Models
still not agreeing on the amounts or exact timing. Tuesday on
even more uncertain. Some showers possible as an upper level
trough sets up in the upper Midwest. Minor fronts will move east
across the Great Lakes. A little cooler Tuesday with highs
around 50 in CNY to mid 50s Scranton to Monticello south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
140 am update...

Mainly VFR conditions until the rain moves in around 12z. Early
this morning the exception is ITH with light fog which might
drop to IFR before 08z when surface winds increase.

Rain showers overspread the terminals from west to east between
11-13Z. CIGs and maybe vsbys should lower to MVFR shortly after
the onset of rain, then Fuel Alternate an hour or two later.
Brief IFR restrictions are possible when/if a broken line of
heavier showers move through between 14-17Z. Have included IFR
cigs at RME/SYR 15 to 18z. Conditions improve to VFR from SW to
NE between 18 and 22z.

Light and variable winds become southeast and increase to 5 to
10 knots around 09z. As the rain comes in around 12z winds shift
to the south at 10 kts. Winds then sharply turn out of the W to
NW and increase to 20 kts gusting to 30. some decrease in speeds
in the evening.

In addition, LLWS is possible for a short 2-4 hour period around
13z as a SW low-level jet with peak winds near 45 kt moves in at
2k feet.

Outlook...
overnight tonight through Friday night...MVFR likely with rain
and snow showers, windy with peak NW wind gusts during the day
on Friday between 30-40 kt. Best chance of MVFR at SYR/RME.

Saturday... Low CIGs early should gradually improve to VFR. West
winds will be much lighter.

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR

Sunday night and Monday...Additional restrictions likely Sunday
night and Monday with rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JRK/TAC
NEAR TERM...JRK/MPK/TAC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/TAC
AVIATION...TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
409 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-092015-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
409 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph are possible both Thursday and Friday
afternoons. These gusts may bring down a few trees and wires.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.