Wind Advisory 5, NWS Binghamton, NY

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WWUS71 KBGM 201649
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1249 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

NYZ009-015>018-022-036-037-210000-
/O.CON.KBGM.WI.Y.0005.200320T1700Z-200321T0000Z/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Madison-Southern Oneida-
Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, 
Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, 
and Utica
1249 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Madison, Southern Oneida, 
  Steuben, Yates, Seneca and Southern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

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WWUS71 KBGM 210014
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
814 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

NYZ009-015>018-022-036-037-210115-
/O.EXP.KBGM.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-200321T0000Z/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Madison-Southern Oneida-
Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, 
Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, 
and Utica
814 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds have dropped below advisory levels. However, breezy
northwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will continue 
overnight and into early Saturday morning. Continue to secure 
loose, lightweight outdoor objects.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
204 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers continue across the area early this morning along a warm
front pushing through the area. Temperatures today will rise
into the upper 60s or lower 70s, before a line of showers and
thunderstorms with gusty winds moves through the region during
the afternoon and evening hours. Dry and much colder weather
will return this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 AM Update...
Main change with this update was to remove mention of thunder
before 12Z (8AM), since no lightning strikes have been observed
anywhere near our area. Also made some minor timing changes to
POPs with the main line of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, since latest high resolution model guidance is
hinting at a slightly faster moving line. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track and the previous discussions remain
valid.

800 PM Update...

Attempted to fine tune PoPs for the overnight period and into
the day Friday with this update. There will be multiple waves of
showers, and a slight chance for embedded thunder overnight
into Friday morning as a warm front pushes through. Then, latest
hi- resolution CAMs are showing a few t'storms out ahead of the
main line of storms, which should move through during the
afternoon and evening hours.

Also made minor adjustments to temperatures based on the latest
data; and with such strong warm air advection and moisture
transport am expecting the valleys of the southern tier and NE
PA to potentially reach the mid-70s tomorrow afternoon (with dew
points around 60). Current guidance indicates there could be a
few breaks of sun during the late morning and early afternoon
hours, which would help to boost temperature and allow for
more instability. NAM continues to be the most bullish on CAPE,
showing 500-900 J/Kg for a brief period. Greatest threat still
looks to be gusty winds along that main line of thunderstorms in
the afternoon. SPC continues the marginal risk for severe storms
for our entire forecast area.

330 PM update...

A powerful cyclone spinning through the Great Lakes into Lower
Ontario will drag very mild, unstable air across NY and PA.
Showers will spread across the region tonight and slowly taper
off during the morning hours on Friday. Increasing warm air
advection will cause temperatures to rise this evening through
Friday afternoon, eventually peaking near 70 degrees.

MLCAPE values are forecast between 300 and 600 j/kg by Friday
afternoon. With very strong shear and low level helicity in
place, the threat for storms with strong, gusty winds will
increase when a cold front advances across the western forecast
area after 18z. A marginal threat for severe thunderstorms
exists.

With the atmosphere much colder and quite dry behind the front,
we expect the precipitation to end abruptly after the front
passes. The one exception will be downwind of the lakes, where
an isolated snow shower or flurry is possible late Friday night.
Otherwise, quiet weather will follow after the storms move
through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday morning begins with strong cold air advection with large
scale subsidence. This will squash any lingering lake effect/lake
enhance snow showers / flurries behind cold front which will be
well south of northeast PA and central NY by 12z Saturday.
There likely will be a few left over lower clouds to begin the
day which will mix and dry out with the day's heating. Despite
the stronger late March sun, the air mass is cold enough to keep
maximums Saturday mainly in the 30s and lower 40s with gusty
northwest to north winds.

Then for Saturday night, a large low-level ridge builds across
the northeast U.S with fair skies and chilly morning lows for
Sunday. Minimums Sunday will be down in the teens and lower 20s.
The low-level anticyclone will slide east toward the Maritimes
by Sunday evening as a southeasterly low-level return flow
develops. We expect plenty of sunshine but it will still remain
chilly with maximums from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Then for Sunday night into Monday night, a complex system will
affect NY and PA. First there will be significant warm air and
moisture advection on the backside of the departing low-level
anticyclone off the Maritimes. An upper level wave will also be
moving across the Great Lakes region by 12z Monday. Warm air and
moisture advection coupled with lifting from this feature will
lead to a swath of precipitation from PA/WV north through NY
into eastern Quebec Monday morning as per the 12z GFS. This
swath of precipitation will move slowly east as a coastal low
develops well off the Middle Atlantic coast, and at least as
per the GFS, doesn't phase in time for our area to cash in on
heavier precipitation. Last night's Euro Model has more phasing
and heavier QPF for northeast PA and central NY. QPFs range
from .5 to 1" on the Euro, to a 1/4 to 1/2" on the GFS. The CMC
has is between both of these solutions. The GFS, not being as
wound up as the euro, would have mixed rain and snow with the
Euro looking like mostly snow. The CMC is warmer than both of
these models. For now, we will continue likely POPs mainly
Monday and continue idea of snow with rain mixed in at times
depending on boundary layer temperature. This system bears
watching as it could be a late season significant snowstorm for
our area. We will mention in HWO to start.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For Monday night, it will depend on how much of a storm
develops on the coast. If the Euro is closer to reality
lingering snow and snow showers will continue. If the GFS and
CMC are correct snow or snow showers will be tapering down as
the system departs by 12z Tuesday.

Tuesday looks like a small upper level ridge builds in before the
next wave approaches rapidly from the west. The GFS is fastest,
the Euro is slower with the CMC having a much weaker system w/
this system this far out. This has ramifications for Wednesday
and Thursday as the models are all over the place each of these
days. Since the models are diverging here and we will go with
NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fuel Alternate to IFR ceilings along with MVFR visbys are
expected early this morning, mainly before 12Z along with the
first batch of rain showers to move through the area. Ceilings
and vsbys improvement somewhat after day break as the first
batch of showers pull out of the area. However, an organized
line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area
from west to east this afternoon and early evening, which will
cause additional restrictions. Had enough confidence in thunder
to include in this TAF set. This was put in 2 hour long TEMPO
groups when thunder is most likely due to exact timing
uncertainties. That being said, individual thunderstorms will
likely last less than a half hour. Conditions improve to MVFR to
VFR after 00Z following the passage of the cold front.

Aside from the line of showers and thunderstorms itself, winds
will be quite gusty even before the frontal passage. Gusts up to
35 knots or so will be possible at times in the early afternoon.
Higher gusts will be possible along the line of showers and
storms. After initially starting southerly, wind direction will
shift to westerly and eventually northwesterly following the
passage of the front late this afternoon/this evening. Low level
wind shear is also expected this morning due to a strong low
level jet.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday night...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Chance of rain and/or snow; associated restrictions.

Tuesday...Restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJG/DJP
NEAR TERM...BJG/DJP/MJM
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...BJG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
130 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-201730-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
130 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will move through New York and
Pennsylvania Friday ahead of a cold front. Some thunderstorms may
become strong to severe with gusty winds, mainly during the afternoon
and early evening.

The potential exists for accumulating snow, especially over the
higher terrain, Monday into Monday night. At this time it is too
early to tell how big of a storm will affect our area. Listen to NOAA
weather radio or monitor your favorite media outlets for the latest.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Friday afternoon and evening.

NICOSIA